Projecting Tesla Six to 18 Months From Now

The Tesla Economist calculates that Tesla could deliver 292000 cars in Q4 of 2021 and this would be $16.2 billion in automotive revenue. This would be $6 billion more quarterly than the blowout Q2 auto revenue just reported by Tesla.

This would mean about $3.1 billion in net income in Q4 versus $1.3 billion in net income in Q2. GAAP earnings per share would be $2.33 versus $1.01 in Q2.

He assumed about 20,000 refreshed Model S and X and 10,000 cars from Berlin and Austin.

David Lee and Rob Mauer (Tesla Daily) pinpoint the ramp up in Tesla profitability is due to the increased share of Model Y in the product mix. Model Ys are more profitable for Tesla. China production is more profitable for Tesla. Model Y and China production are increasing.

Berlin and Austin will start with Model Y production.
David Lee has a more simplified model and uses it to project a doubling of income if Tesla has $20 billion in quarterly revenue.

Q1 and Q2 in 2021 outproduced the traditionally strongest fourth quarter of the prior year. Berlin and Austin opening up will mean Q1 and Q2 of 2022 will likely outproduce Q4 of 2021.

Tesla quarterly production for the next six quarters is likely to be:

Quarter   Production   Auto Revenue
Q1A 2021  184000       
Q2A 2021  206000       $10.2 B
Q3 2021   230000       $12.5 B
Q4 2021   290000       $16 B
Q1 2022   310000       $17 B
Q2 2022   370000       $20 B
Q3 2022   440000       $24 B
Q4 2022   520000       $28 B

Tesla could have $7 B in net income in Q4 2022. This would be almost as much as Amazon in Q2 2021.

SOURCES- Tesla Economist, David Lee Investing, Tesla Daily
Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

6 thoughts on “Projecting Tesla Six to 18 Months From Now”

  1. Yes b/c
    (i) we are becoming more urbanized => public transport more important
    (ii) congestion => less opportunity to own car
    (iii) robo-taxis => less need to own car regardless of population size

  2. Amazon's share price is where it is because of covid. Check out UPS share price. It has nearly doubled in the past year.
    I suppose the coming hyperinflation will take Tesla there anyway. The increase of a share in dollars will be much greater that any increase measured in grams of gold.
    One positive sign for share value is the Biden policy bull market in fuel prices. I doubt Joe will get through a fuel based carbon tax though.

  3. What if China, India, and Indonesia continue to grow and develop greater middle classes? Do your projections include that?

    Shows world car production – if robo-taxis do take over from owning private cars then production may decrease further.
    Of the ~ 97 million cars produced at peak ~ 3/4 were for private use & 1/4 commercial use.
    Whilst for the next few years the projections for Tesla may be achieved, in the long term car production will decrease globally & reach a steady state – I'm predicting ~ 60-65 million vehicles ~ 20% less than the 78 million produced in 2020.

  5. Tesla's vertical integration strategy has certainly paid off in this time of government covid policy caused supply chain disruption. Eventually, it's production will fill the annual demand for expensive, relative to ICE vehicles BEVs.
    At that point, the only way to expand sales will be to do what they claim they will, underprice ICE vehicles. I hope they can manage it. At this point, they are raising prices, rather than lowering them.
    Tesla share price, compared to it's approximately $10 annual earnings per share is absurd. The current P/E is around 65.

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