A Canadian Century

34 thoughts on “A Canadian Century”

1. Wow! Great article and a good discussion. A Canadian here and I’m writing to tell you that Brian’s population growth estimates seem very possible. There is no serious political voice in Canada that is talking about reducing immigration levels. Growth will be the name of the game for the next ten years at least. I dare not guess what’s beyond the next ten as that’s a fool’s errand.

   My greatest concern with Canada is parochialism and naivete when it comes to how we conduct ourselves internationally. We have much potential to engage and influence, but Canadians are obsessed with domestic issues. What Canadians don’t appreciate is that if we don’t properly engage in world affairs and meaningfully influence and/or cajole various events or processes, the order of things that have served our country so well could go to crap.

   Canada, if it genuinely invested in things like defence and engaged much more effectively in places like the Pacific and Africa, could have real and lasting efforts that would add to the demographic boon that Brian writes about. Hopefully, we’ll begin to see some of that when the Conservatives win the next election.

2. The important question is “will rapid population growth increase the median standard of living and quality of life for Canadians.”. GDP growth doesn’t mean much. My experience is that smaller countries have a higher quality of life.

   • I am just noting the trends. Canada has been increasing GDP per capita faster than other developed countries. Canada has had a higher percentage of population increase from immigration. High levels of immigration is a primary national policy of Canada for economic development and business competitiveness. The trends have been stable and increasing for decades.

     • I don’t think using 2000 is a good starting point, that was when the Canadian dollar was at its lowest point. If you started in 1980’s Canada has not grown faster per capita as other advanced economies.
       If you want to start at the year 2000, you can compared prodctivity. Canada productivity dropped -5% compared to US, while Germany and France both increased 2%
       https://bcbc.com/insights-and-opinions/canadas-productivity-performance-over-the-past-20-years

     • I don’t think Brian knows much about Canada. He used a poor date to start comparisons of GDP per capita, and he is making an assumption that Canada will be attractive for migrants or will keep high immigration. Few reasons to refute this assumption

       1) High housing prices & cost of Living. Canada had one of the highest telecom prices in the world.
       2) Qubec nationalism- Quebec the cheapest province will likely have a backlash to immigration from non francophone nations. It may even cause seperation.

       Canada is not well run they have high deficit, decling services despite an increasing workforce, decling producivity relative to others, rent seeking oligopoly

       • It may surprise you to learn that Brian is, in fact, Canadian.

         • Yeah, it shoud be obvious for everyone as soon as we see Brian seriously thinks that Canada with 40M people (or even 60-100M during this century) can become 4th largest economy in the world.

           Larger than India(world’s most populous country) with 1,42B people now and at least 1,7B in the next few decades :).

           Only patriotic Canadian can come up with such prediction.
           Brian, if you read comments, nothing wrong with that, just to be clear 🙂

           • If Canada is 4th then it would be behind USA, China and India. It would be based upon nominal GDP and not PPP.

             I mention that India would have to royally F itself for Canada to pass it.

             Canada has 10% more per capita income than the UK and over 20% more than France. Canada at 59 million people would pass France on overall GDP if France had 68 million people. IF the per capita income ratios held. Canada can pass Germany and Japan when their population craters. Japan also has terrible per capita income. Canada could double Japan’s per capita income. Canada could pass Japan with half of Japan’s population.

             Germany’s population and per capita income are holding up better.

3. These time spans are enormous. Nothing will go on for 80 years without change. For instance, why would you need ever more manual labour, if you have humanoid robots?

4. I agree with Brian’s predictions, up to mid-century. I also think that as the world approaches “technological singularity” ~2060; it will be harder to predict the future of any economy & relying on past projections you will end up with erroneous predictions or as one commenter put it “over fitting”

5. It would be nice if Canadians would realize that importing millions of foreigners is a path to destruction, not prosperity. It turns out that when a load of Pakistanis come to Canada, the Pakistanis don’t magically become Canadian. Instead, Canada becomes a bit more like Pakistan. Will Canadians figure this out in time? Given their voting history, I very much doubt it. It’s much more likely that they, like their European counterparts have done, will welcome their own downfall with literal open arms and welcome signs.

   “Gee, we let in a bunch of Muslims and now our daughters are being raped and our cities are being destroyed. I wonder if the two things are related?”

6. You forgot to take into account few giant countries (which all have growing populations) like Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, even DR Congo. They are obviously underdeveloped at the moment, but with their huge populations, they will soon take off and catch up rapidly – just like China, but on smaller scale. Smaller scale than China, but still many times bigger scale than Canada.

   Also, as 3rd world rapidly develops and life improves there, I doubt there will be so many people wanting to move to Canada in future decades that Canada’s population will reach 100M people.

   Theoretically it’s of course possible, but if european countries change policy to Canada like policy (inviting 1M people per year) – Poland, Germany, France, UK – can also attract tens of millions of people. My country – Poland – for example, grew by around 4M people in last few years and became immigrant country during last 5 years or so. Besides Ukrainians, Belarusians, people from Georgia etc, now we’re also accepting 5 000 Indians per month(with conservative gov) and I think this will accelerate soon, so in theory Poland can also reach 60-100M people this century.

   The same with other, larger EU countries and UK, but I doubt it will happen because like I said before, people from “The South” will develop their countries and soon won’t be interested in moving to Europe and North America.

   Even if 30-60M people move to Canada during next few decades, most of them can and probably will go back to their countries as soon as their “homes” will reach some decent level of development.

   • I don’t think Canada will have any difficulty attracting immigrants. Canada is a highly desirable destination for immigration, and it doesn’t take a large percentage of the world population migrating to provide Canada the prospective residents to continue to grow. If the rest of the world becomes more developed, it if anything increases the pool of qualified applicants from an education perspective.

7. Speaking as a Canadian.

   Is this supposed to be some kind of joke?

   Canada’s main economic function is supplying raw materials to the US for less than market prices. We do not have the economic base to produce much of anything other than raw materials, and prior efforts to cultivate non-US export markets for our raw materials have been repeatedly blocked by American political sabotage.

   Much of our political establishment is controlled by Americans and operates to ensure that our economic surplus is exported into the pockets of American billionaires with very little left behind for Canadians. There is no potential for Canada to develop when our ruling class does not allow us to keep the proceeds of our own ingenuity.

   With the Americans well down the road to setting their own country on fire — potentially cutting off both the only market we are permitted to have and our supply of everything not pulled out of the ground — Canada will be very lucky to have a functioning economy in the next half-century much less rise to 4th place in the world GDP rankings.

   Indeed, it’s much more likely that the next century will see us wind up like Ukraine rather than rise to being a significant global power.

   • I presented the data. Canada at 30.7 million in 2000 and now surpassing 40 million.
     Canada’s per capita nominal GDP was $24k in 2000 and the US was at $36k. Now Canada is at $55k per capita nominal in 2022 vs US at $76k.
     USA has 38% more now per capita vs 50% more in 2000. Canada improved by 9%.
     Germany per capita income is wis $48k now vs $24k in 2000.

     Canada population increased 28% since 2000 vs US at 18%.

     Japan’s population fell 1.5% from 2000 to now. Japan fell from $39k per capita GDP in 2000 to $36k today.
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita#IMF_projections_for_2020_through_2028

     Canada’s population and economy have been growing faster than competing developed countries from 2000 to 2023. This accelerated in 2021, 2022.

     Canada as a relatively attractive immigration destination and maintaining over 500k immigration and some population growth to reach 1M more people per year.

     I think you are wrong.

     I have a public prediction accuracy of 90% and rank 47th out of thousands of forecasters.
     https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110947/

     I have the forecasts of when Canada reaches 50 million and 60 million etc…

     You might be predicting doom for many countries. I am saying Canada is around 20th in population up from 36th and goes from 9th in GDP to 4th.
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)#IMF_projections_for_2020_through_2028

     Canada will and is passing Italy and Russia.

     Canada has 72% of France’s total GDP. Canada was 54% of France GDP in 2000.
     Canada has 68% of the UK GDP now vs 44% in 2000.

     Germany, Japan, France and UK are mostly heading to shrinking populations with more aging problems.
     Brazil might stay ahead of Canada but Brazil is also resource dependent and has a history of occasionally wrecking its economy.

     South Koreas population will start shrinking badly as they age and have no kids.

     Tallest dwarf is still tallest dwarf. I am saying Canada moves from 9th tallest to 4th tallest.

     • In math, we call this Lagrange interpolating polynomial.In machine learning, we call it overfitting.

     • Brian made laughable optimistic predictions on Tesla shares and crypto currency prices, all of which came true. He’s probably very wealthy from them.

       • Well…. That may or may not be true, but Brian’s predictions on Tesla for 2022 was way off. Was it 2.3-2.6 million cars? And the result was 1.35 million. Brian is to optimistic, in general.

     • I don’t 2000 is a good starting point, Oil prices were very low in 2000. Inflation adjusted Oil prices were at 2005 prices today. Canada GDP is lower than it was in 2014, it per capita GDP was equal to America in 2014 now its far behind. Canada will attract less ambition migrants than America

     • Your data is flawed, 2000 was when the Canadian dollar was the lowest. The Canadian dollar is risen since then against the Euro & Pound. If you compared produtivity Canada has decline 5% compared to the US, while France and Germany has increased 2%.

       Canada is become less attractive to immigrants. Canada high housing prices, and cost of living has made recent immigrants regret coming to Canada. Many immigrants are not planning on becoming Canadaian citizens.

       • Less attractive? Immigration doubled from 250k to over 500k in the last few years. Population increased by 1 million in the last year and is on track for another 1 million increase in 2023.

8. I don’t think Canada can ever really escape the US’ shadow. Having a significantly divergent geopolitical agenda is not something America can really tolerate on its doorstep. Canada may become a bit more balanced in its relationship with the US, but really challenging the US is a terrible idea.

   • That’s not really the issue here. The real issue is that most of Canada is basically uninhabitable. 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the border with the US, clinging to the warmest sliver of land they have.

     The part of Canada people actually live in isn’t actually that large, which is why Canada has a relatively high level of urbanization.

     Worse, that inhabitable fraction is also Canada’s best farm land, so as the population increases, more and more of Canada’s arable land gets diverted to living space. Canada is on a glide path to cease being a net exporter of food, and become a net importer.

     And thus more dependent on the US!

     • I think that is overblown. Canada can double its population just in its existing urban footprint. Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba can support much larger populations. Even Atlantic Canada is very sparsely populated, and could support many more people. Most of the raw calories produced in Canada come from the prairies in Western Canada that won’t be paved under in any scenario and are going to become more productive with global warming. Similar things are happening in Ontario, though it is being rather profligate with what little prime agricultural land that exists.

       • With global warming everything below Edmonton will be good. 50% urban footprint expansion. Mainly around Toronto. Montreal Ottawa Vancouver. Calgary and Edmonton is where the expansion will be. Ontario at 32-35 million. 20 million in Toronto. 10 million Montreal. 10 million Vancouver. 4-8 million for each of the rest

         • Global warming isn’t likely to move the climate zones more than perhaps 50 miles North in Canada, and a lot of the area that would be warming doesn’t really have arable soil anyway. Warming up glacial till and gravel isn’t going to be terribly helpful.

           Canada’s best agricultural land is below the 50th parallel East of the Great lakes, and that’s exactly where the people are going to, and it’s getting built up. Canadian farming is being pushed onto poorer soils and sites on account of their best agricultural land being converted to living space.

           • 189,874 farms
             farms cover 62.2 million hectares or 6.3% of Canada’s land area
             https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/overview

             Japan has 4.4 million hectares of farmland.
             Germany 11.6 million hectares of farmland
             France 30 million hectares of farmland
             UK 18.6 million hectares of farmland.
             Canada already has more farmland than Japan, Germany, France, UK combined.

             journal PLOS ONE, predicts about 4.2 million square kilometers of Canada that are currently too cold for farming crops like wheat will be warm enough by 2080 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb. In 2020, only a million square kilometers in Canada are warm enough for growing crops like wheat, corn and potatoes.

             https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228305

     • 300 miles from border like Edmonton will get better and better with global warming but most go to Toronto. Ottawa Vancouver and Montreal areas

       • https://www.science.org/content/article/here-s-how-your-city-s-climate-will-change-2080-if-you-re-canada-or-united-states

         Weather forecasting for 2080

     • https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/canadian-climate-cities-2080-1.5014695

       Forecasted weather.

     • Probably a bit unfair and subject to clarification of values.
       Nothing you’re saying is incorrect on its face, but a bit disingenuous.
       In my world view:
       the perfect place to live is in a four-season environment; that means a temperature range, in American 😉 , of 20F to 90F – snow, rain, clear sky, humidity – the entire range of climate. In this range, it creates the type of people and society that are robust, self-reliant, and ambitious. Slums, the homeless, and the dis-organized/ unmotivated tend to disappear in such an environment. People are individualistic, resilient, and motivated – the perfect cradle for a rich, entrepreneurial, pro-work spirit – we prosper in adversity – or we don’t, and the gene pool is subsequently stronger. The democratic populace is therefore of a particular mindset – perhaps similar to a light blue/ light red upper-mid western state – not Montana or Wyoming per se, maybe Colorado.
       I certainly agree that the easiest living areas are within a few hundred miles of the US border, a tremendous benefit – I love travelling the Interstates and getting US entertainment. But the population is low, the density so moderate with many months of 60F+ weather, but yet still with ready access, within a few hundred miles, to intense urban environments, Canada cities above 500k, with all the world-class amenities, at comparably low rent/real estate prices. Free and open spaces but typically without all the backward small town values, for the most part – a well-connected, sophisticated (relatively) but spread out populace. The farmland and food production issue is far from clear – though I can’t believe that Canada would not be on the cutting edge of all agricultural productivity improvements – so no worries there. I am most concerned about unfiltered and un-meritocratic immigration. It is not our job to save the world or provide endless, permanent refuge for the sad and broken of the world. We don’t need to be bigger or employ low-value/ low-skill hordes of people into lower-class blue collar industries. Resource extraction, energy industries, and agriculture should become increasingly technical, industrialized, and automated – and we should embrace the higher productivity, lower human-involvement access – thereby embracing a services economy, a professional economy. 35M people is fine and should be maintained.
       Canada is at the perfect place where we are not subject to bleeding-heart EU values or heavy migrant penetration from the middle east or north africa, close-ish to the most resilient and dynamic economies in the world – the US, UK, and Japan; are not subject to the intense polarizing forces as in the US states – which will likely become a large-scale divorce of blue-red states -which is not unwelcome nor unproductive; and will continue to enjoy increased 4-season land over the coming century as warming unlocks – but if not, who cares?
       We need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that we need increasing populations, above-average replacement (though not with restrictions on fertility, abortion, or family size), or an influx of people, to provide what? additional people to wipe nursing homes’ seniors’ asses as those populations increase, gobs of undeserved cash to pensions and welfare as retirement periods move, ridiculously, above 20 years each, increase suburban sprawl around cities already having services spread thin, etc.? Canada is ideally placed to be a highly productive, high resource content, modern-pro-infrastructure-libertarian paradise. We need to stop 50 years of trying to unravel that by misguided values of value-dilution through un-assimilatable new-comers and hyper-liberal erosion of individualistic values – and without the sensationalistic and ultimately shallow goal of being a top-5 G7 country – who cares? Over-performing and under-the-radar and slightly pro-British – the way we always liked it.
       (and why such interest in Canada here anyway? – we are not in-the-spotlight people)

9. Data in this table is outdated. India has more people than China already.
   China population is 1411M, China reported such data itself few months ago.

   https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202301/17/WS63c60d34a31057c47ebaa14d.html

   Year ago they were at 1412m, they dropped by around 1m in one year, not much, but it’s first such drop since centuries.

10. Pretty interesting actually.
    How did you calculate fourth place in terms of GDP?

    • If gets to current dollars $5 trillion with 80 million people the it will pass Germany and Japan which will have vastly lower population than today
      Only US and China will be bigger GDP and maybe India if it does grow and does not screw up

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