Ontario, Canada Can Pass California’s Population in 2060

Canada is growing its population by 1.4 to 1.5 million people per year via a robust immigration program and 44% of the people are going to Ontario. 20% of new Canadians go to Alberta, 15% to BC and 13% to Quebec.

California’s population peaked 4 years ago at 39.5 million and is now 39 million people. The California Department of Finance has published new population projections out to 2060 for California. California will barely go above 40 million from 2040-2055 and then go back to 39 million. A few years ago California was projected that it would reach over 60 million people by 2060.

According to Department of Finance data, the County of Los Angeles is expected to shrink by 1.7 million people from 2020 to 2060.

In 2060, Texas will have 37-44 million people. Florida will have about 31-36 million people in 2060. In 2023, Texas has a population of 31.2 million and Florida has 22.5 million.

The US Census has released new population projections from now to 2060 for the whole of the USA. The USA will still have population growth.

Canada could achieve the goal of 100 million people by 2065 instead of 2100. There is a lobbying group called the Century Initiative. The Century Initiative is a Canadian lobby group and charity that aims to increase Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100. This includes increasing the population of megaregions, which are interlocking areas with more than one city centre and a typical population of 5 million or more (e.g., the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Vancouver, and the National Capital Region).

The Century Initiative was co-founded by Mark Wiseman and Dominic Barton, who also led the Trudeau Jr. government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth. The Initiative is supported by former Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and by influential Liberal Party advisors including advisors to former Minister of Finance Bill Morneau. The Century Initiative has connections to the Black Rock investment group.

Canada has only had governments that were Liberal or Conservative since it was founded. The Conservatives had a had some name changes but a party representing Conservatives or Progressive Conservatives has been either the ruling or opposition party.

Canada’s robust pro-immigration policy is a core aspect of both Liberals and Conservatives.

The Century Initiative was looking at six megaregions in the four provinces and also growing Winnipeg in Manitoba.

9 thoughts on “Ontario, Canada Can Pass California’s Population in 2060”

  1. Brian, I would urge caution in extrapolating recent immigration to a long term trend. Canada does not have a coherent policy to absorb this rate of immigration, and many cracks are forming in the pro-immigration consensus due to poor affordability, standard of living and prospects for newcomers. I expect some mean reversion to a still high but more sustainable rate of immigration (closer to 500k than 1.5m/year), particularly given the likelihood there will be a change in government following the next election.

    • I pointed out that both Liberals and Conservatives support high levels of immigration. Canada has polling of about 70% general support for immigration. There can be a backlash but is coming off a high number. I also pointed at that Blackrock and other multi-billion dollar financial interests have captured the policy process to keep very high immigration levels. Globally, a target country needs to prime the pump and reach critical mass of the source populations. Ie, have a large chinese community to attract more chinese (friends, family), have a large indian community to attract more indians. Canada is in the top three destination nations for major emigrating groups and could soon be number one. The annual immigration could slip back to 800,000 to 1 million and then dial back up again in the 2030s. The Century Initiative wanted to keep bumping up planned annual immigration to about 1.5% per year. Get to 50 million and 1.5% is 750k, Get to 70 million and 1.5% is 1.05 million, get to 100 million and 1.5% is 1.5 million. If total immigration of 2% per year levels. Get to 50 million and 2% is 1M, Get to 70 million and 2% is 1.4 million, get to 100 million and 2% is 2 million. The support is mainly holding Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton and Montreal as target megacities to absorb most of the people.

    • Canada will move up from 8th or 9th in the world to 3rd place in GDP. Ontario will move up from 5th most population for any province or state in North America to first. Many business and geopolitical writers for decades wrote about the rise of China from 1970-2020. Canada is moving up as a great power only behind the USA and China (maybe India). Beyond any European power. Canada is doing this via immigration just like the US did. This is also while 80% of the population in countries of the world will have declining population. If anyone is obsessed with national rankings in population and GDP and power, then this matters. Growing populations determine where there will be robust real estate markets. My analysis is saying which cities in North America and most of the world will have the best real estate markets for decades (The major canadian cities of Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Montreal. The site is about the future. Understanding the shifts in world population is a critical foundation for understanding the future. Understanding global immigration and population changes along with per capita GDP told a lot of what was going on in the 19th and 20th century.

    • Quebec has a somewhat independent immigration policy where they preferentially select potential migrants with proficiency in French. This is likely part of the reason Quebec is getting less than its share of immigration to Canada despite being quite livable and affordable. This will create some tension in Canada as the founding arrangement of the country was with Quebec/francophones as a substantial minority partner. It has been very rare for a governing party to hold power without a substantial base of support in Quebec. In time however, Quebec’s share of influence will continue to wane and they may become increasingly alienated if the governing coalition does not include Quebec.

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