Ontario’s population is where California was in 1960. They both had almost 16 million people. California added 4-6 million people each decade for the next 50 years.
Canada has added 2 million people mostly through immigration in the last two years and 44% of those people go to Ontario. Canada is on pace to add 1.4 to 1.5 million people each year.
I pointed at that both Liberals and Conservatives support high levels of immigration. Canada has polling of about 70% general support for immigration. There can be a backlash but is coming off a high support. I also pointed at that Blackrock and other multi-billion dollar financial interests have captured the policy process to keep very high immigration levels.
Globally, a target country that wants immigration needs to prime the pump and reach critical mass of the source populations. This means having a large chinese community to make it more attractive for more chinese to join the ones are already in a particular city. Canada has a large Indian community to attract more Indians. Canada is in the top three destination nations for major emigrating groups and could soon be number one for many of them. The annual immigration could slip back to 800,000 to 1 million and then dial back up again in the 2030s. The Century Initiative wanted to keep bumping up planned annual immigration to about 1.5% per year or more.
Get to 50 million people and 1.5% annual immigration is 750k.
Get to 70 million and 1.5% is 1.05 million.
Get to 100 million and 1.5% is 1.5 million.
If total immigration of 2% per year levels.
Get to 50 million and 2% is 1M.
Get to 70 million and 2% is 1.4 million.
Get to 100 million and 2% is 2 million.
The policy and practical support is mainly holding Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton and Montreal as target megacities willing to absorb most of the people.
Calgary has urban planning to support 2 million people, which would be about 40% more than today. This would be enough to handle growth at current rates out to about 2035. The recent surge is about double what the city planners are expecting. Urban planning looking out two decades would see population arrive in 10 years instead of 20 years.
California from 1960 to 2010 and Los Angeles and the SF Bay Area show that the pace of growth that Canada might achieve is manageable.
The Century Initiative is pushing for rich megacities in Canada. Canada getting transformed is secondary to booming urban real estate and markets.
They want Toronto to become as rich and dynamic as Los Angeles and hopefully with less of the downside problems.
This process has been happening and is accelerating for now. Could it stop or slow down. Sure. However, there is no signs of slowing or stopping yet. The reasonable forecast is that it continues.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Isn’t it amazing how much Ontario looks just like southern california?
The numbers are outliers, probably catching up after the pandemic. Official targets are in the 500,000 range going forward.
If Gulf stream collapses, Canadians will be massively immigrating to USA.
The Gulf Stream keeps *Europe* warm. It doesn’t do any thing to make Canada less cold than it would be without that ocean current.
Take a look at the climate of places in Canada & Europe at the same latitude. The Canadian ones are *colder*.
Sure Canadian elites like high immigration. Because of demographic collapse of natural born Canadians, Canada could not support its social welfare system w/o high immigration.
But Trudy banned the sale of Canadian real estate earlier this year to foreigners. So it will be interesting to see what effect this wil have on future immigration levels.
How to destroy a country
1. Allow immigrants from other cultures.
2. Watch those immigrants open the doors for their brethren.
If you haven’t noticed from the deluge of articles on the subject, Brian is on step #2.
Calgary is getting a good hard pounding of immigration. Why not move on to destroying Ontario next?
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/violent-conflict-with-150-people-erupts-in-calgary-saturday-afternoon
“The confrontation may be related to similar Eritrean conflicts that have been occurring in cities around the world, including a recent riot in Edmonton in mid-August.”
“1. Allow immigrants from other cultures.”
You mean like those Catholic immigrants (Irish, Italians, Hungarians, Poles, most Germans) who arrived in Protestant America over 100 years ago?
What is that obsession with Canada? IMO too many articles about Canada.
If Gulf Stream collapses we could see scenario with even more cold climate there so Canada won’t be so attractive to immigrate.
And then that giant meteor hit the Gulf Stream and messed up Australia. And then the zombie plague hit New Zealand. What is your obsession with long tail bizarre scenarios and using that as an excuse not to examine actual events and trends?
But the probability of Jet stream collapsing is way, way higher and based on science. Probability of giant meteor hitting us in the near future or zombie plague is way way lower if close to 0.
I’ve always said immigration is a key tool that too many countries are idiotically not taking advantage of. Canada will be an economic powerhouse, easily prospering until Tesla bots are really capable of taking the load.
On the other hand my feeling is that economic stress that is made worse by children is the main cause of our declining birth rate. A UBI could help fix that.