Sources are reporting that Chinese domestic battery cell prices are $70-75/kWh for LFP and $80-90/kWh for NMC. This is significantly lower than BMI’s (Benchmark Mineral) weighted global cell price average of below $100.
This would mean $30 per kWh lower prices would mean $1950 lower prices on a 65 kWh battery pack.
According to my sources Chinese domestic cell prices are $70-75/kWh for LFP and $80-90/kWh for NMC. This is significantly lower than BMI’s weighted global cell price average of “below $100”. Note the numbers are not completely apples to apples but still interesting to compare.
— Lars Lysdahl (@lysdahllars) October 10, 2023
In 2022, the China Alliance for Electric Vehicles (CAEV), China produced batteries equivalent to 545.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of power but only 294.6 GWh were installed in EVs. In 2023, 233.5 GWh produced from January through May, while only 119.2 GWh were installed in EVs.
The battery glut is partly due to softening EV sales, but also due to a headlong rush into battery production. In 2022, 50 Chinese battery companies announced capacity expansions of almost $200 billion that would produce enough batteries for 30 million EVs. In 2023, China’s pure BEV sales are projected to be about 8-9 million units and another 2 million PHEV (plug in hybrids with small batteries).
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
OK, so where can I go on AliBabel and get this price?
As far as I can tell this only applies to grid-scale stuff
i.e. if you do not have $10,000,000 to spend, dont even ask!
This means in very few years the majority of cars sold world wide will be battery powered.
[ “The US electrical grid was built over the last 100 years and it has not been properly maintained.”
‘https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/10/tesla-evs-and-solar-heading-to-90-lower-energy-costs.html’
Why? Where?
Bi-directional charging on local power points? ]
One might say “China has batteries to burn!”
OK Brian $75/kwh. give us a link to the Alibaba site where we can buy 20kwh at TWICE that price.
20kwh of LFP at $150 each is $3000, $1000 shipping ( to Florida)
I will plunk down my money right now. Well, I’ll have to wait for the Xmas bonus, but I’m in. Have an off-grid powerwall. Batteries are fading on me.
These prices are only true if you buy millions of units.
Its the price the big auto manufacturers will expect to pay.
Please, say that.
Otherwise simple folk like me get a bit annoyed, with you, when they try to actualy buy stuff.
https://www.bluettipower.com/products/bluetti-eb900-b500-home-battery-backup?variant=44138498785499
Lots of options out there. Here’s what I installed.
“battery cell prices”
I thought it was pretty clear the prices weren’t referring to retail battery packs.
Brian, based on your math ( which I concur) EV Batt’s might get closer toe $35-40/KWH.
I’m not thinking transportation. I’m thinking battery back up. Battery cost on a 50 kWh unit is well under $4000. That’s a full two days of operation of my household, including the air conditioner and the Jacuzzi.
[ what’s a ~$200-400 a year (on a half yr/seasonal duty, ~$1-$2/day ) for battery backup with ~7000kWh/a (~182d*50kWh*0.75) ~$0.06/kWh_battery_wear_cost, w/o maintenance or other infrastructure cost ]
At that lower cost threshold, my battery would cost $1603 to replace, minus any labor.
That would put the cost of cells for RWD model 3 at only $4300. Price parity for EVs is getting close.