EVs Cost Less Than Gas Cars and Battery Fixed Storage On Pace to Win As Well

by

Analysis cited in the Wall Street Journal confirms that EVs are cheaper than gas cars. EVs will continue to improve in price. EVs will be 20-50% cheaper than gas cars by 2030.

1) EVs now cost less than gas cars in China and Europe, and should cross over in the U.S. next year.

2) Lithium-ion storage has the best experience-curve slope. Most industries have a logarithmic rate of cost improvement with scale, typically dropping 20% for each accumulated doubling of volume. Li-Ion is on a steeper slope than hydro, fuel cells or alternative battery chemistries.

Following an “S-curve” trajectory, already established by leading EV markets in northern Europe and China, the report implies that EV sales will increase at least sixfold by 2030, to enjoy a market share of 62% to 86% of sales.

11 thoughts on “EVs Cost Less Than Gas Cars and Battery Fixed Storage On Pace to Win As Well”

  1. I couldn’t see it mentioned anywhere, but what was the interest rates used for calculating the net present value of future fuel purchases?

    Because changing that number just a bit can drastically skew your results. And I wouldn’t put it past a newspaper to use 0%.

  2. Not sure why we need to frame this as an ICE vs EV fight.
    We can have it all. It’s about responding to the wide range of buyers and their circumstances – urban, rural, commuter, long-hauler, high-riser, single-fam., etc., etc.
    Better to let Climate Change win than be poor, car-less, under-utilized, and under the iron boot of emissions’ fascists.
    ICEs, PHEVs, BEVs across all transpo models – say 20% ICEs (traditional fuels or H2), 50% PHEVs (traditional fuels or H2), and 30% BEVs as ‘for sale’ models by 2030. It is even increasingly likely the geologic hydrogen will become a thing this decade and then the fracking adventure of last decade will pale in comparison to that wild-west rush.
    https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/11/20231123-uhl.html

    • [ ’emissions’ fascists’
      some of these think/mean it’s for their ‘win’, but that’s a sad fault within an education system, also and their main interest is/was less with ’emissions’

      me, interested in a cheap investment for cleaner ICE/PHEV possibilities, with knowing that more countries on planet Earth don’t have financial capacities for replacing all vehicle fleet within some years
      What’s the suggestion for low budget advancements, progression and development?

      Cars are symbols for ‘status’/rank (within ‘industrialized’ countries and their anticipated desire to lead/for ‘prerogative of interpretation’/market oriented advertisements politics)(?) ]

  4. Several things wrong here…

    1) Why are ICE vehicles shown as never having their cost of ownership declining? Does anyone actually believe that they will never ever get cheaper?
    2) Why are hybrids not shown?
    3) Cost is irrelevant to a vehicle that is of no use… if I cannot drive 700+ miles on a charge, an EV is useless to me. (For reference, my F-150 hybrid can get over 700 miles per tank)
    4) Cost is also irrelevant if there’s no charging infrastructure to get me where I want to go.

    • 1) Because, historically, they’ve been going up in price pretty rapidly, thanks to ever increasing regulatory demands. If EV’s become cheaper than ICE vehicles, that will be why: Because the auto makers aren’t legally allowed to sell affordable ICE vehicles!

      2) EV is a cult, and hybrids are heresy…

      3) I’ve never in my life driven a car that could go 700+ miles on a tank. And I’m retiring soon.

      4) That’s a big point: The same people pushing electric cars are blocking reliable electric power!

      • 1) If EVs become more than a small fraction owned by the politically powerful in society (and it’s pretty sure at this point this will happen soon) then regulators will start viewing them as a prey animal too.
        Regulation on cobalt content is already starting to be muttered about in dark corners.
        likewise, tax subsidies only works on a small minority.

        2) This wasn’t true as recently as 10 years ago. The Prius was going to save the world. Yet another thing that is fundametaly changed by Elon Musk.

        3) I drove Audi Q5 tdi SUVs that could do 1100km on a single tank (in real world, my friend was driving it and not trying for good economy). That’s 680 miles. In 2015. The current model is meant to be a fair bit better. And this is a big luxury SUV, not an economy car.

        4) Yeah, you get that

  5. I have yet to find an EV with a 50 meter retractable cord. Beyond that my clean green electricity costs $0.52/kWh. EV’s have >70% higher repair issues than ICE’s. You cannot use an EV for a family vacation, short 500 mile trips to the next city for a football game or Thanksgiving, nor pulling a trailer. EV’s are not practical.

  6. The price of home battery is quite overestimated compared to real today price ! I can find below 300 $ per kWh

Comments are closed.