SpaceX Lunar Starship and Refueling in Orbit Might Slip from 2025 to 2027

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Government Accounting Office (GAO) projects the HLS (Human Landing System – AKA SpaceX Lunar Starship) development takes as many months as NASA major projects do, on average, the Artemis III mission (first moon manned landing) would likely occur in early 2027. This would be a delay from the current 2025 target.

GAO analysis of past NASA projects that have launched since 2010 found that the average development time from project start to launch was 92 months. NASA has already delayed the Artemis III mission to December 2025, extending the HLS development time to 79 months. However, this is still 13 months faster than the average development time for NASA major projects.

The complexity of human spaceflight suggests that it is unrealistic to expect the HLS program to complete development more than a year faster than the average for NASA major projects, the majority of which are not human spaceflight projects.

While SpaceX and NASA are aiming to complete development more than a year faster than the average for NASA major projects, they are achieving key events at a slower pace. SpaceX used more than 50 percent of its total schedule to reach PDR in November 2022. On average, NASA major projects used about 35
percent of the total schedule to reach this milestone.

Furthermore, the HLS program is taking longer to reach KDP C—the next key review after PDR—than average for the NASA major projects GAO assessed. As a result, the HLS program is proceeding with development without formal approval of a cost and schedule baseline.

The HLS program and SpaceX delayed eight out of 13 key events by between 6 and 13 months. Of those delayed events, at least two will occur in 2025—the year the Artemis III mission is scheduled to take place. Partially as a result of these delays, SpaceX plans to complete eight key events between November 2023 and the planned date of the Artemis III mission.

The remaining technical work includes:
• Raptor engine development. SpaceX plans to use the Raptor engine in both the lander and booster stages of the human landing system and considers the technology to be relatively mature because it incorporates many years of prior development. However, the HLS Program Office identified engine development as a top risk to the program. SpaceX representatives said that their design for the Raptor engine follows an iterative approach, and as of September 2023,
SpaceX had assembled and tested hundreds of engines. In a February 2023 interview, HLS officials said that if the Raptor engine operates below performance levels needed to meet mission requirements, thereby delaying engine certification, then it is possible that the new main engine for the human landing system will not be ready to support the planned mission in December 2025.

• On-orbit propellant transfer technology. SpaceX has remaining technical work to develop its on-orbit propellant storage and transfer technology. HLS program documentation states that propellant storage and transfer technologies have not previously flown in an integrated propulsion-like system.

SpaceX has made limited progress in maturing those orbital refueling technologies.

There are multiple key systems related to the propellant transfer capability that SpaceX plans to develop for the human landing system. Those systems include docking sensors and mechanisms (to identify, locate, and then physically align the HLS Starship and the tanker Starship for fluid transfer); propellant measurement (to gauge the amount of propellant in the tanks and how much was transferred); and storage capability to mitigate fuel loss in space.

SpaceX plans to conduct the in-space Propellant Storage and Transfer test to further mature the technology, but the timing of this test is dependent on successful completion of preceding flights.

SpaceX representatives said that the fundamental propellant transfer technology is not new or unique but requires engineering time and development effort to fully design and test for eventual use in the Artemis III mission. If the docking hardware does not perform as expected during spaceflight testing, significant vehicle modifications may be required, which could delay the mission. HLS officials said that SpaceX must demonstrate these technologies prior to completing
the critical design review to promote confidence in the mission concept of operations.

Axiom Space Suit Also Needed

7 thoughts on “SpaceX Lunar Starship and Refueling in Orbit Might Slip from 2025 to 2027”

  1. Artemis 3 was initially intended to be completed by the end of 2024. But immediately that schedule slipped because Congress didn’t provide the necessary funding. That pushed it to the end of 2025.

    SLS & Orion appear to me to be on track for that date.

    Starship’s last orbital flight test (OFT2) appears to show that the engines are nearly perfected. Staging and hot separation also worked as did the FTS. What remains is to more safely rotate the first stage and fix whatever caused the loss of the upper stage. There’s not a lot left for the FAA or FWS to consider. I think that approvals will arrive more quickly. And those two problems don’t strike me as something that will take SpaceX a long time to fix.

    If OFT3 can solve those two problems then we have a system that can get a depot and propellant into LEO. Re-entry and reuse is icing on the cake but not actually required for Artemis. Lunar flybys and even lunar cargo attempts and ascents become possible in late 2024 / early 2025. If lunar cargo is successful then it seems to me that lunar crew in 2026 becomes entirely feasible. Analogy to large projects by legacy companies in the past don’t seem particularly applicable given the relevant factors involved with SpaceX HLS.

  2. Has anyone seen Smarter Everyday Channel speech for NASA key personnel?

    It seems a bit part of his criticism was at the need for a huge number of launches for refueling, which he implied could be many dozens.

    He compared it to Apollo, a single launch for each mission.

    Quite nonsensical, considering the objectives of each program. How many tons could Apollo land on the moon? How much money would it cost to land 150 tons on the moon? Could you build a base on the moon with Apollo hardware? Etc

  3. I think competition from Ula has some people in their pockets and they are fighting SpaceX with bureaucracy. They have the motive to benefit from that and from slower SpaceX development.

  4. The comparison is silly. Artemis is using legacy hardware and has been in development far longer.
    The silliest part is that SpaceX is building a system to land a huge platform on the moon , from the ground up, and GAO wants to compare it to other major NASA projects? Like what?

  5. Given we’re only a few weeks from 2024, it’s hardly surprising. However, where is the GAO comments about SLS and Orion, which are themselves far behind schedule and would likely struggle to be ready for 2025? Perhaps GAO could put some pressure on the FAA to speed up their approvals of flight testing for Starship, as their approvals have slowed SpaceX in their usual accelerated testing program. In short, this reads like a report which points fingers everywhere except at NASA or their traditional contractors.

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