Joe Tegtmeyer described the Telsla 4680 battery chemistry upgrade. At the end of 2023, the 4680 battery chemical composition ratios in Cathode material was NMC 811 (80% Nickel, 10% Lithium, 10% Cobalt). However, Tesla is finishing the process of transitioning over to NMC 955 now that we are in 2024.
They are also trialing asymmetric lamination with one side of the laminated material thicker than the other. The expectation is this will increase the amount of jelly roll that can fit into the 4680 can.
With both of these changes, Tesla will be able to increase the capacity of the 4680 battery initially used in 2023 by a further range of between 10-20%.
Many 4680 Lines Through 2024
Nextbigfuture has a table looking at how the first 4 lines in Texas should ramp and then the other Texas lines, Berlin and Shanghai. This does not factor in a 20% improvements once year in 2024 and 2025 based upon chemistry and battery upgrades. IF Tesla ramps the multiple 4680 lines, then Tesla would be tripling 4680 batteries every 5 months starting January, 2024. Two fully ramped 4680 lines would be 50-60 GWh/year runrate by about May, 2024.
Domestically produced 4680s will be a $6,000 to 13,000 impact in lowering cost or getting inflation reduction act tax credits for each car.
As a side note, NMC 955 is just the latest chemical makeup, but Tesla is also testing NMC 973 which we may see at some point later in 2024.
The switchover timing was based on using the last of the older NMC 811 material on hand. The final transition to NMC 955 is now underway.
I believe that since this is essentially just a chemical composition change, the process to upgrade to the newer cells should happen relatively quickly, with little to no drop in production using NMC 955.
Also, as a reminder, Tesla is in the process of upgrading the 4680 cell area, expanding the production area & preparing to go from the current four (4) 4680 lines (which are now either at or in the final process of ramping to full capacity) to eight (8) at the latter half of 2024.
Also, as a reminder, the battery cathode plant here at Giga Texas is nearing the end of the initial construction & equipment installation. We may see some initial tests & small-scale production in the first half of 2024. In addition, work continues at the Corpus Christi Lithium Plant, although I suspect it will be the second half of 2024 before it is at a basic operational capability. Eventually, the Lithium Plant & the Battery Cathode Plant will work together to supply Giga Texas 4680 cell production.
Finally, at present, all 4680’s are being directed to Cybertruck, as all Giga Texas Model Y’s are using 2170’s. As the 4680 cell production continues to ramp, this may change, but likely not until late in 2024.
Some exciting insights into efforts going on at Giga Texas concerning revising 4680 chemistry composition of elements & cell changes underway right now in the northwest corner of the main factory.
At the end of 2023, the 4680 battery chemical composition ratios in Cathode… pic.twitter.com/qqF0o1Ic6Q
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) January 4, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
“NMC 811 (80% Nickel, 10% Lithium, 10% Cobalt). ”
SHould be 10% Manganese.
We generally get super Elon-gation of the time-frame compared to Elon’s original statements. Tesla does good work but I don’t buy a word that organisation says regarding ramp times.
What matters most is price reduction and getting these in to the Model Y and Model 3. The new 3 is good but I am disappointed that it won’t use the newer batteries.