Autoline describes the problem of Peak Auto. New car sales have hit their peak in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Despite strong population growth in the U.S., new car sales are the same as they were a quarter of a century ago. Here’s why.
US overall car sales have dropped from 2000 to today despite US population increasing by nearly 20%.
Global new car sales peaked in 2017.
Historically, it took 25 weeks of household income to buy a new car. US household income is $75000, so 25 weeks of income can afford $36,000 of car. The average new car price is $48000.
Interesting stats from Autoline’s John McElroy on new car sales… @Tesla unboxed approach to building locally sourced highly featured EVs in a new inexpensive approach seems to be directionally correct… automakers protecting profits by raising prices has run its course pic.twitter.com/CcqRBIx1fV
— Jeff Lutz 🔋 (@thejefflutz) February 19, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Good comments by Jer.
The word ‘multifactorial’ is your friend.
However, I’m not convinced we’ve hit ‘peak auto’ yet. Maybe, but too soon to all. Let’s see what happens in India, Malaysia, Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and Central America as they continue to grow their GDP and infrastructure.
It’s worth considering that “Peak New Car” is in the context of most cars having driver-owners and human drivers being required. Autonomous vehicles that are fully licensed to operate without drivers are in a completely new category and when they’re available their sales won’t have the same limits – though they will cannibalize sales of human driver vehicles and may well accelerate the overall decline if they each replace several vehicles in the existing fleet.
I think it’s mostly due to improving quality. 300k miles with just wipers, tires, and oil replacements are pretty normal for modern cars, especially hybrids.
Fully electric drivetrains should help move the typical vehicle to 1M miles capabilities, if batteries get good enough or if they rely on conservatively designed and easily replaced range extender generators.
Autonomous vehicles covering a lot of miles will help further reduce new car sales.
Yes, plus young people not driving. When Robotaxis get going, volumes will sink much lower.
This is interesting.
Reasons?
Disinterest in a car for teenagers and off-to-university people (first car later on)?
Duration of keeping a vehicle longer?
Less availability for parking at multi-family and urban living areas?
Remote working means getting rid of 3rd or second car?
Smaller families?
Lesser commutes?
Insurance, repairs, and registration costs?
It’s a shame – a car is one of the greatest acts of freedom.
The cars are lasting longer. Average age of private passenger vehicle on the road in the USA is 12 years old per a previous NBF article.
Less buying power per family? The single income family is a thing of the distant past.