Mostly Unreported – Russia is Going ALL Out Now in Ukraine

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Russia has lost 13 fighter jets in 13 days but it is because they are flying 150 bombing runs everyday.

Russians are flying more bombing sorties than ever before. Russian air force launched more than 150 sorties involving Su-34s, Su-35s and Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets. That’s 10 more daily sorties than the Russian air force flew during its previous most intensive aerial surge, concurrent with the Russian army’s initial push toward Kyiv in the early weeks of Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine.

Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

The reporting and sources are from military analyst David Axe, Forbes and the Institute for the Study of War along with some analysis by Nextbigfuture. Major offensives in the Russia-Ukraine war are costly in terms of soldiers, pilot and equipment. There are links in this article to the sources. Those who have issues can read the links and decide for themselves.

Russia has about 300 fighter jets. Russia can keep up its intensive air campaign combined with a huge army offensive for close to a year. Russia only has about 105 Su-34s left but they can build about 20-30 new planes each year.

Russia is using a lot of large glide bombs from about 20-30 miles away. The Russian air force has equipped 1,100-pound and 3,300-pound KAB bombs with satellite guidance and pop-out wings to create precision glide-bombs.

The heavy bombing was used to help the Russian army to take Andiivka. Russian temporarily established limited and localized air superiority during the final days of the Russian seizure of Avdiivka. Russian is attempting to reestablish this limited and localized air superiority in order to support tactical Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction.

This intensified actions are breaking the modernized trench warfare. Advancing has been very difficult because of minefields and trench fortifications used by both sides. The localized air lets Russia’s army move forward a mile to two in a week in some areas.

Ukrainian retreat two weeks ago, after Russian planes dropped hundreds of KABs on Avdiivka—ultimately rendering the city impossible to resupply and defend. At least 16,000 Russians died taking Avdiivka from 2,000 Ukrainian troops defending the city center. Russians are trying to take the village of Tonen’ke, five miles west of Avdiikva. Tonen’ke has been flattened with 30 KABs every day.

Russia is using up its airforce to get some 5-10 mile advances and tactically or strategically useful positions. It is unclear if these positions or advances will enable a significant breakthrough or breakdown in Ukraine’s defenses.

62 thoughts on “Mostly Unreported – Russia is Going ALL Out Now in Ukraine”

  1. BTW, an update on these Ukrainian claims on shooting down the fighters. This is from the New York Times (not exactly a pro-Russian establishment):

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-planes.html

    “The Ukrainian Army last week said it had shot down seven Su-34 fighter jets, nearly all operating in the east, just a few days after downing an A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft. It was, according to Ukrainian officials, part of a series of successful strikes against the Russian Air Force, in which Ukraine claimed to have shot down 15 planes in as many days.

    The majority of the shootdowns could not be independently verified, and a senior U.S. official expressed skepticism at that number. The official said the Ukrainians appear to be taking credit in some instances for planes they fire at but which are not confirmed to have been downed.”

  2. Guys like Douglas Mcgregor, Larry Johnson, Ray Mcgovern, and Jeffery Sachs have the most accurate information regarding Russia/Ukraine over on Andrew Napolitano’s “Judging Freedom”.

      • So you believe the Russians are still commies who still want to take over the world. Is this correct?

        • If not the world, at least the countries next door. Perhaps not communists, just a terrorist state run by an imperialist dictator.

  3. What can I say? The GOP today s**** Putins **** because Trump tells them to. There’s no polite way to put this. IMO, Trump IS THE Manchurian candidate. In the two movies I saw two of that name, we (the USA) only won in the end, because it was realized a potential President of the United States was a traitor. And that person, had no idea they were. It’s what the Russians call, “A useful idiot” They know what their talking about.

    Once again, I need to point out how prapaganda works. It does not work when it tries to convince you of something you don’t believe. It works when it re-enforces what YOU WANT TO believe. Be careful who you vote for, they may win…

    • Dude, I hate to dismiss with a simple “you have TDS”, but it is strange how many of YOU simultaneously hold Russia in such high regard as the long game opponent playing chess 50 moves ahead while insisting it has an economy smaller than Italy, being nothing more than a gas station. Which is it? Sophisticated adversary or pathetic and weak?

      Personally, I don’t have a problem with any ‘misinformation’ published on the internet or on social media. I don’t care if a foreign power supports any of our candidates with the actions of bots or troll farms. Mobile phones have given the world a direct line to the minds of our sea of idiots with these “smart phones,” so we deserve the chaos it has fruited.

      This is not the place to rant about partisan politics. You sound foolish.

      • We Columbians held the Soviet Union in such high regard because we fought them in the Cold War !
        The Soviet Union had many many components. Chief amongst which were Ukraine and Russia.
        Russia inherited the prestige and much of the Soviet Union’s legacy weapon stockpile including nuclear weapons of Ukraine.
        Much of the Cold War era Might of the Soviet Union came from Ukraine. Major weapons were *MADE* in Ukraine, not in Russia. Yes, indeed, Ukraine was and is a very tough and smart foe. It’s probably why Russia was willing to pay such a dear price to try to regain control of Ukraine.

        It’s still a failed effort by Ukraine’s jilted lover — Russia.

        • I may be wrong… But, didn’t Russia and Ukraine have an agreement that if Ukraine turned over all their nuclear weapons to Russia then Russia would leave Ukraine alone and let them be their own separate and independent sovereignty? Therefore, Russia inherited nothing, Ukraine bought their freedom from Russia. Now, Russia has broken that agreement and the nuclear weapons in Russia’s control are in all actuality have been stolen from Ukraine.

      • Russia is a concentrated-nuclear-armed pathetic gas station with an economy smaller than Italy’s. Ukraine has reduced Russia’s gas-pumping capabilities. It’ll become a 1970s Arab-Oil-Embargo-era gas station without gas but with a huge nuclear waste dump.

      • You know,, you should have a problem w/this. Because if I sound “foolish”, you sound uninformed. You don’t “have a problem w/disinformation or misinformation?” What planet, and what nation on that planet do you live in? You don’t care if an enemy power supports people for our political offices? What’s the matter w/you?

        I’m going to assume your not a Russian operative. You are just an uninformed American who thinks that’s an advantage in life. Nope, it ain’t. What scars me to death is that SO MANY Americans love being stupid by choice. They don’t ask questions, because they are afraid to know the answers.

        We have to ask the right questions, to get the right answers. We have to be bold enough, to get answers to questions, we may not like to hear.

  4. You’d do well to watch the New Atlas:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbYaci80z5I

    This guy is an ex-marine and to date he’s been spot on with his analysis. He uses only Western sources to make his points.

    Remember, the people telling you Russia has lost 13 fighters in 13 days are the same ones who are telling you Ukraine has only lose 31k soldiers.

    • I’m very aware, we’re getting information regarding either sides “losses” from certain selective sources. That said, journalists who don’t correctly report what they observe won’t be working for the media company that signs their paychecks for very long. As w/any “news”, you need to know the source, and who has what, if any “skin” in that game.

      • We owe Ukraine our protection pursuant to the Budapest Memorandum. It’s the credibility of the U.S.A. at stake. Upon which stands everything else: such as the value of the U.S. dollar 💵 abroad, inflation rates, livelihoods of tens of millions of import/export-related jobs.

        It’s our way of life at stake. I consider it supreme to everything else. Remember that the war over Taiwan is just looming a bit unseen but it’s surely coming. It’ll be catastrophic but a victory for Ukraine can starve that catastrophe off, benefiting everyone on Earth 🌍🌎.

  5. Not mentioned here are the losses due to airframe hours. The average Su-27 is 22 years old. At an average of 200 flight hours per year that’s 4,400 hours out of a maximum design life of 6,000 hours. Overhauls are required every 1,500 hours.

    To mitigate the risk of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields Russia is operating from bases farther and farther from the front. Every sortie is two hours minimum. At a rate of one sortie per day across 100 aircraft one aircraft is functionally lost every 30 days just to wear and tear.

    • That’s a very good point. The Russians have a tendency to we’re their equipment done to the bone. In the west, we retire what are, good, capable aircraft just to be on the safe side. The Russians may have more “robust” planes in the short term. But the USA, and west don’t “push” our planes except in training or actual combat. When combat does happen, we wax the ass of whoever is stupid enough to take us on.

      Our technology is amazing, but our pilots are so much more so. And Thank God for that… For the men and women who fly our military planes. Our technology can deal w/an enemy before they know their being “delt with”. But it takes a skilled pilot to make that happen.

      • U.S. planes have much longer service lives than Russian planes. The illusion of Russian durability is just that.

        Airframe life ratings:
        Mig 29: 2,500 hours
        Su-27 6,000 hours
        Su-30: 6,000 hours
        Su-35: 6,000 hours

        F-15C: 9,000 hours
        F-15E: 6,000 hours
        F-15EX: 20,000 hours
        F-16: 8,000 hours
        F-16: 12,000 hours (after SLEP overhaul, also block 60+ production)
        F-18: 8,000 hours
        F-22: 8,000 hours
        F-35: 24,000 hours

        • I said Russian aircraft can be “tough” for a short time. But they don’t last very long. Make them cheap, they will fall apart very quickly. Lenin famously said: “Quantity has a quality all it’s own” My guess is he never flew in an airplane.

    • Even if the U.S. and European countries continue to give Ukraine military aid, the numbers of artillery shells will still fall far short of Russian production and the outcome will still be the defeat of Ukraine. They just don’t have the production capacity in place. The AFU also isn’t able to replace their manpower losses. They are running out of men to fight, while the strength of Russia’s armed forces is increasing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Operation Bagration type of offensive starting later this summer and a total collapse of the AFU.

      • I don’t know what the Russian ability to manufacture artillery shells is. I don’t know how anyone could know this unless they had inside information, or were just guessing. Trust me, the Russians are UNIMAGINABLY anal when it comes to security, and military security is at the top of the list. Hey, I’m an ex-spook so I know what I’m talking about.

        The idea: Ukraine can’t win”, fly’s in the face of what has occured. Ukraine has kept at bay a much larger military force by superior tactics (REALLY superior) and aid from the west (Mostly the USA) What the GOP is holding up is not the “sexy” stuff like M1A2 Abrams tanks, or F-16’s, or Patriot antiaircraft/missile batteries.

        What their running out of is artillery shells and bullets. And we make so much of those… If Russia wins in Ukraine it will show them we will not protect a democratic society from illegal attack? Who would want to be an ally of a country that won’t do the right thing when push comes to shove?

        Who would trust us, if I was the leader of another country, and the Republicans blocked aid to Ukraine, I sure as hell would not.

    • In what world is this the US’s problem. We can think Russia is bad, and think Ukraine is bad.
      They are not a US ally, nor are they apart of NATO. They are one of the most corrupt countries in the world, we owe them NOTHING. We are broke, we go an additional trillion in debt every 100 days, it’s gotten absurd! We need to pull back all forms of aid. We have countless problems within our own country, and don’t have the funds to be looking to waste it elsewhere around the globe.

      • Pull back on aid to the rest of the world but keep funding Ukraine: they are literally bleeding one of our primary adversaries. We give them weapons and they do the fighting.

        Russia’s demographics are terrible (they talk about it daily on their own domestic tv shows). If the war drags on for another ~2 years there will be 1,000,000 fewer Russians under 40 plus however many young Russians have fled. Russia’s national wealth fund is down to $55billion from its height of $144billion. Its oil and gas exports have tanked. North Korea and Iran are only selling Russia ammo in exchange for gold and India will only buy oil with Rupees: nobody wants the Ruble. Credit default swaps are pricing in a 100% probability of Russian default within the next five years.

        Funding Ukraine is a cheap and easy way to bleed Russia. It’s the strategic bargain of the millennium.

        • How are you “green please”. Who decided Russia was my adversary. I live in New Jersey. Russia is NOT my adversary. I am not involved in such global politics, and if I were, I wouldn’t play it like a zero sum game. How many thousand year old cultures does the US have a beef with between Russia, Iran, Korea, etc… we need to back off.

          • Russia has nukes pointed right at you. Yet, they aren’t your enemy. Does anyone else smell vodka?

            • America has nukes pointed all over the world, does that make everyone our enemy?

              Speaking as a pro “bomb the Ruskies in Ukraine” kind of guy I have to say that nothing highlights the stupidity of people I agree with on this topic quite like when people go straight to accusing others of being Russian agents… because they themselves cannot form or handle an argument.

          • Russia has threatened to nuke the United States in official policy speeches at least quarterly since the beginning of the Cold War. They never stopped. They have formally revoked the sale of Alaska to the United States (to which I would say “come and take it cowards”). Russia has assassinated and jailed American journalists, given support to separatist parties in the United States, attempted to influence elections, and has gone to great efforts to both spy on us, steal our intellectual property, and sabotage our industry. Russian groups routinely conduct cyberattacks on American infrastructure.

            Russia is clearly the enemy of the United States.

          • Any country breaking down the global rule-based order is an enemy of the U.S.A. and shall be dealt with accordingly.

      • The global rule-based world order is a legacy of the Cold War victory, principally achieved by our effort. Any country which destroys that is our enemy. The U.S.A. signed the Budapest Memorandum to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine’s giving up all her nuclear weapons to Russia which also guaranteed the same to Ukraine. We Columbians intend to uphold this agreement to the same level as the Cold War itself: including a first nuclear strike as we see fit.

      • If money spent elsewhere can prevent WW-3, that works for me. Putin has repeatedly threatend to use nuclear weapons. This is the sign of a weak, but very dangerous man. What does Russia have? Some oil (The USA is now the largest producer of petroleum products on Earth. You can look that up. So much for global warming…) And Russia has nukes. A lot. We have enough to destroy the world. And they has enough to make the rubble bounce. OK…..

        That Ukraine is “not an ally”, is, IMO a misreading of who an ally is. Ukraine is a free society, were people elect those to represent them. If we subscribe to certain principles that other countries do, they are our natural allies. We don’t have to be military connected, but if that works out for all parties, that can be very nice. (Our military spends A LOT of money where ever they go. And the world knows this…)

        I also support Ukraine because if they lose, Russia wins. What will “Russia Win”? IMO, one hell of a headache. But Putin doesn’t see that inevitable outcome yet. That would make him more dangerous. And he’s got a lot of nukes, and a crappy economy. Bad combination.

      • I keep having to point out that if killng Russians in Ukraine and scrapping Russia’s army are the objectives to be maximized then Ukraine should be funded but not be allowed in to NATO. That way NATO can fund Ukraine and kill a thousand Russians each day without escalating.

        And no this kind of proxy war is not escalation. See for example Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan… both sides know the rules here.

      • Its about supporting a global law and order where big counties can’t just take over smaller countries by force. It’s about supporting democratic systems of government over murderous dictatorships. It’s about the stability of Europe, with whom America has a shared culture and history. Its about maintaining a powerful and beneficial (to the US) influence throughout the world.

  7. This war is the last nail in Russia’s demographic coffin. Those 20 something males dying on the field of Ukraine should be home making babies with their wives and girl friends. A further collapse in their birth rate spells the end of Russia and the Russian people.

    • It’s the complete opposite of what you are saying. 450k to 500k Ukrainian military personnel have been killed and many more wounded. Russian estimates are around 65k killed. Russia has actually added around 6 million more russians with the annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. With the number of ukrainians killed in the war and the millions that fled, Ukraine is in dire straits in their war against Russia. Keep drinking the kool-aid that Ukraine will defeat Russia.

      • If the Russians were somehow attacking and inflicting a >1 casualty ratio (Never mind 7) then :

        1. They have completely busted historical precedence.
        2. They’d have been driving their tanks down the highstreet of Lvov years ago.

      • Not so, Russia is currently grinding forwards, but at great cost. Ukraine is in a bad spot, with manpower being the biggest issue, but there is no doubt Russia is paying dearly – approximately 130K dead and 250k wounded, and huge losses of equipment.

        • This war has shown that the Russian military is frankly, unbelievably bad. There is brutal (sometimes lethal) hazing in the enlisted ranks. Officers don’t respect the enlisted, and the enlisted don’t trust the officers. I’m amazed their military can function at all. It’s like the mafia, were fear and power control everyone. I pity those people.

          Since the traitor Snowden is now a Russian national it would be so sweet if he was drafted into the Russian military. Oh, poetic justice…

      • Bro I’ve seen enough video on the internet to account for at least 60k dead Russians. No way Russia has lost just 65k. Russian military “strategy” has the grace and coordination of a drunk one legged ballerina.

  8. Vladimir Putin is setting the stage for his legal removal by totally owning the Special Military Operation (SMO) as the primary contribution of his 25 years of service. A significant number destroyed ships and A-50 aircraft and damaged Russian infrastructure plus the millions of people that have fled Russia added to the half-million dead or disabled looks like a terrible deal for the Russian people people. Imperial conquest is inconsistent with Russia’s long term interests in the 3d decade of the 21st Century. The world is facing catastrophe as Putin plays at out-stalining Stalin or Czar Nicholas I in the 1850s.
    For every Russian that mourned Novalny’s death publicly, there are thousands that are totally disgusted with this War against Ukraine that is a gross violation of the UN Charter and the Russian Constitution.
    Article 15, par. 4:
    “Universally recognized principles and norms of international law as well as international agreements of the Russian Federation should be an integral part of its legal system. If an international agreement of the Russian Federation establishes rules, which differ from those stipulated by law, then the rules of the international agreement shall be applied.”

    The right of the Russian Federation to hold the seat of the USSR at the UN was granted by the other Newly Independent States in December 1991 after Russia had signed agreements that committed it to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and other newly independent states. No action was taken by the UN or any other state or international body to establish a right for the Russian Federation to hold the seat of the USSR with its veto privilege on the Security Council. See – https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N91/425/70/IMG/N9142570.pdf?OpenElement

    The Putin regime’s aggression against Ukraine has violated the agreements that granted the Russian Federation the right to hold the seat of the former USSR in the UN. A consequence could be the removal of the Russian Federation from the Security Council except if the legal body with jurisdiction determines that the SMO did not violate international law. Putin’s violation of Article 15 par. 4 of the Russian constitution should result in his removal from his position as president.

    • Unfortunately it takes only tanks the loss of one vote on the security council to veto any un resolution to remove russia. Unfortunately russia is on the security council.

    • Putins actions against Ukraine are NOT based on rational actors acting under of law. You go out of your way to convince people that Putin will behave “rationally”. It’s so scary, that so many are to unaware to know, Putin IS NOT a “rational actor”. He’s a dictator, like Trump. Trump loves that SOB Putin because I will say it once again.

      Propaganda works NOT because it tries to convince you of what you don’t believe. It tries to re-enforce what you WANT TO BELIEVE. And that’s the truth gang. Deal with it…

  9. Making hay while Republicans in congress block military aid. We should hook up a generator to Reagan’s grave.

    • It isn’t even our job to police the world.
      The Founders of this nation would be rolling in their graves

      • Pffft. The founders would be shocked that blacks and women were allowed in the same room as them. Don’t care what they think.

      • Policing the world is a job which befell upon us Columbians due to our having won the major global wars of the last century as well as some in this century.

        We shaped the postwar world order and made our former enemies both wealthy and well-off. Both Europe and Japan have greatly benefited from our policing the world. Even Red China has benefited greatly. How else do you think Red China could grow wealthy and well-off so quickly but for our investments and technology transfers?

        We also have tens of millions of import/export-linked jobs so losing them will be detrimental to a major part of our people — easily one hundred million of our people.

        For many reasons, we must let Ukraine win victory.

    • The US has serious and real border issues of our own that any sane administration would address but for some reason the current administration seems hell bent on driving.

      Many urban city centers are drug dealer sponsored homeless vs migrant open air fight clubs. (That’s an exaggeration of course but you get the idea)

  10. Putin also threatened EU countries with nuclear attacks if they contribute troops.

    Nothing more dangerous than a desperate cornered animal.

    • USA has been able to shoot down all Russian intercontinental missiles for at least fifteen years. Toothless cornered animals are not dangerous.

      • “shoot down all Russian intercontinental missiles”
        What reason is there for believing that?
        I’m not saying it’s impossible, but this is the first I have seen this claim.

      • Yes the US has the technknical capability to shoot down a ICBM. Yes we have deployed some of these anti ICBM missiles. But it has never been tested in combat. and it is doubtful that we have enough to shoot down the all the ICBMs and the decoys.We We really only have enough to shut down a few accidental launches.

  11. Glide bombs require the plane to fly high and straight. It makes them easy targets.

    And with the loss of airborne radar and control, the Russians can’t see the interceptor missiles coming. Just like predicted in Red Storm Rising .

  12. Russia manufactured only 155 Su-34 and has lost 25. The current loss rate is one per day. The remaining 130 Su-34 will last 130 days and Su-34 pilots have an average 65 day life expectancy. Russia had an equivalent number of Su-35 and has lost ~25 of those as well. For some reason they are not being shot down as often.

    Su-34 and Su-35 deliver 500 lb glide bombs from close to the front to clear the way for infantry. Russian artillery was performing this task but Russia does not have enough howitzers and ammunition left to do the job The day is coming soon when Russia has neither glide bombs nor artillery to clear the way. I have no idea what is the Russian Plan C.

  13. Even Ukr claims are corect, I double they can repeat their success. AA systems near front line are far more easier to be destroyed and this tactical move of Ukr can be backfired.

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