Russia Plans to Grow Military Personnel from 1 Million to 1.5 Million Over the Next Four Years

Russia has announced plans to expand its military to 1.5 million personnel over the next four years. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the troop increase is expected to be complete by 2026, according to Russian state news agency, TASS. Russia will reorganize seven motorized rifle brigades in the western, central, and eastern military districts, the …

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Ukraine Could Get 300 Tanks From Western Allies in the First Half of 2023

Poland is looking to send a dozen Leopard 2 tanks. However, Germany must approve the transfer. The Leopard 2 is a German-made tank and Berlin holds the export license. Germany’s reluctance has delayed Poland, Spain, Finland, The Netherlands from donating surplus Leopard 2s to the Ukraine. The German defense minister has resigned and it seems …

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US Thinktank Wargames China Attacking Taiwan and Recommends Arms Buildup

The CSIS International Security Program for the launch of a new report titled The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan by Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham. This event will feature a presentation by the report’s authors and a panel discussion with Lt Gen David A. Deptula USAF …

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Reports of More Ukrainian Progress

There are reports that Ukraine is pushing into Lyman and several areas near the major breakthrough near the city of Izium. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists. This will likely take a few weeks to get those reservists into Ukraine. Russia will get those who are unable to avoid the draft. However, they will have …

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The Rate of Russian Loss of Tanks and Gear Has Tripled

David Axe, respected and experienced military journalist, says Russia is losing a Battalion every day. Losses have tripled during the Ukraine offensive. Russia has 100 understrength battalions. Increased equipment loss is confirmed. There are about 1000 soldiers per battalion. The Russian army is losing at least a battalion’s worth of vehicles and men a day …

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Ukraine Pressing Russian Forces in Luhansk and Donetz Regions

Russia has not yet stabilized its defensive lines against Ukraine. Ukraine is still advancing after routing Russian Forces from the Kharkiv region. Russia had retreated past the Oskil river. Ukraine seems to have pushed beyond the Oskil river in several points. There are reports of some towns and locations being taken in the Donetsk and …

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Accuracy of Nextbigfuture Predictions

Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical …

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What Happens After Russia Loses in Ukraine?

Russia does not seem like they will be able to quickly fix the problems that resulted in Ukraine breaking through Russian lines and take over 8000 square kilometers of land. US satellites and intelligence have been able to precisely identify ammo depots and command centers. Russia has no response to precision long-range HIMARS artillery. Why …

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