The US Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook high projection for oil and natural gas liquids would be 24 million barrels per day by 2025. If the technology goes right the US could produce 28 million barrels per day by 2035-2045. Russia and Saudi Arabia have had flat oil and gas production at about 10-12 million barrels per day each. Russia and Saudi Arabia should have combined production of about 20-24 million barrels per day.
This is all coming from the shale oil boom.
Infographic created by Easel.ly
SOURCES – EIA, infographic by easel.ly exclusively for Nextbigfuture.com
Written by Brian Wang
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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23 thoughts on “In 2025 the USA Could Produce More Oil Than Saudi Arabia and Russia Combined”
I hope we are warming the climate. Historically, we have far more to fear from cold than warmth.
And methane, right? You know the thing that is increasingly powering all of North America, right? Quite the omission.
I’ll just repost my third paragraph:
Of course is not a hoax, but what exactly is the logic of today’s authorities or business elites that can have a big influence when analyzing their actions?
What makes you think Russia is their “enemy”?
America’s military expenditures has nothing to do with Europe, obviously some pathology is at work there.
I don’t think most of the Russian tanks are in working shape and I doubt they can refurbish them all. I also don’t think the Russian have enough S400 to protect them.
France did not have much oil and coal so their hands were forced. They did what they had to do. This make still happen to the rest of the world. The world make have to go nuclear. We just have to wait and see.
My prediction is that the Chinese will figure out how to build nuclear power plants cheaper and safer. And somewhere down the line they will sell hundreds worldwide. I don’t think renewable will supply more than 50% of the world energy needs so there will be a need for nuclear. I am not pro-nuclear or pro-renewable, I am just practical.
Urbanization is worldwide. They are building subways in every major city. People are moving to the city.
The demand for oil will determine the production. I just think the demand will drop 80% over the next 20 years.
I think a majority of cars turn over in the 10 to 12 year period. Trucks take longer and buses take less time.
In America, 33% of oil is for heating and industrial processes. Natural gas is much cheaper and can replace most of that given the appropriate tax credits. The 66% that is used for transportation can be replaced with EVs in a 20 year period given the appropriate regulations.
Fracking will always be more expensive. As demand falls, production will also fall.
Europe does need thousands of tanks and it does need to go full EV. I think at lease full EV thing will happen first and we at least will see hundreds of additional tanks. US will deliver hundreds or thousands more to EU soil.
You got to give to France. Their politics is shit but their strategic thinking is excellent. They run their country on nukes and they weren’t stupid enough to shut them down … I am looking at you Germany. France only needs oil to run transportation and considering the number of nukes they have they should move to EVs as fast as possible.
Maybe in the US and possibly in Europe. Elsewhere not so much. India doesn’t have a power grid to support electric cars, same for Africa, Indonesia, etc. Most of the world does not live in a place where electric cars are viable for mass adoption and these areas are growing so oil is their future.
Also it is horribly binary thinking to think that a decrease in oil consumption means that the US cannot produce more. Oil will be produced so long as it is profitable and it is profitable for the US to drill and sell oil and LNG even if consumption goes down.
Also you frack for LNG which powers power plants which charge electric cars. Fracking is why electricity is so cheap in the USA. Oil is kind of a byproduct of fracking for LNG, you just do more fracturing to get oil out instead of methane.
Just in case you were serious, or for those who believe that anyway:
I’m going to eat 1000 hamburgers a day, obesity is a hoax.
The whole fleet takes a long time to replace but the average age of the US vehicles is 12 years. I would assume that the vehicle travelling the most miles age faster. And the vehicles driven more frequently affect the aggregate gas consumption most
The vehicle fleet takes a very very long time to turn over. There are plenty of cars on the road older than 20 years. In order to get to 80% reduction in oil use in 20 years nearly every vehicle sold today would need to be electric. And this of course doesn’t even factor in the fact that for heavy equipment or airplanes there is no electric vehicle replacement on the near horizon. As it is less than 1% of passenger cars currently sold are electric. So an 80% reduction in oil use by 2039, that’s pure fantasy, we haven’t even seen oil use flat line yet on a global basis, let alone start declining.
So the future is more oil then ever, climate change is a hoax
I think an 80% drop is ambitious, but I agree oil use should be dropping over this time frame very significantly.
I also think that the USA will not be keeping their new tech to themselves. Other countries are going to start up oil fracking and applying the same tech to other oil formations (horizontal drilling, frack extraction, improved 3D mapping of oil formations etc. most of these will have at least some application to other types of oil structure.)
Hence more production, less demand. So much lower price. Which will reduce production and encourage demand. Prediction becomes (more) difficult.
Agree that the US doesn’t yet actually have enough to export (on net).
And if it did does it have the pipelines running to oil loading facilities for tankers?
I think Europe DOES have tanker facilities given they import so much from the ME, so that wouldn’t be a limit.
And then, oils aint oils. The USA is having issues converting its refineries from heavy sour oils to the light sweet shale oil. Europe would have to make the same switch.
Meanwhile Russian crude is flowing in pipelines that already exist to refineries already set up for that chemistry.
None of these are show stoppers, but they take time and money to overcome. You can’t switch trillion dollar trade flows in an afternoon.
Russian oil sells on the world market. If Europe doesn’t buy it someone else will. What Europe needs to do is go EV big time and lower their overall oil consumption. It would be cheaper than building thousands of tanks.
Why? Oil consumption should be leveling off and starting to decrease by 2025. In 20 yrs oil consumption should be 20% of what it is now or maybe even less.
While I agree with your sentiment, we are not yet a net exporter of oil.
Were self sufficient…IF you include Canada. If you don’t, then were 1-2 years away. So in the near future, I would not be surprised to see us sell oil to Europe, replacing the likes of Russia.
So why, again, do the Europeans purchase their oil and gas from their “enemy” Russia, when their “ally” has so much of it? Seems like repaying some of the last 70 years worth of America’s NATO expenditures to protect them from Russia would be in order. Seeing how it allowed them to put that extra GDP into building their economies, only to now prop up Russia’s.
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