Elon Musk Boring Company and SpaceX have weaker competition than Tesla Motors.
SpaceX rocket competitors did not act for ten years while SpaceX developed disruptively lower cost rockets and reusable rockets.
United Launch Alliance has yet to fly the new Vulcan rocket. They plan to reduce their launch costs from $350 million for a Delta IV Heavy to $100 million for a Vulcan rocket.
The first launch of a Vulcan is now scheduled for 2021. Blue Origin had previously planned to introduce its New Glenn orbital vehicle in 2020. The ULA Vulcan and the Blue Origin New Glenn both use the new Blue Origin BE-4 engine in its first stage. Both rockets have slipped the first launch date to 2021.
Blue Origin has a reputation for being innovative and backed by the wealth of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. However, Blue Origin has not launched a rocket to orbit yet.
The established US large rocket companies have failed for twenty years to adapt Space Shuttle booster technology into a successful rocket.
Ariane laughed off SpaceX for years and only now is trying to make a lower cost rocket with partial reusability. The head of Ariane was still recently making excuses about having to massively restructure and trim staff if they made a reusable rocket. Only one fully reusable rocket would be needed to make Ariane’s 6 to ten launches per year.
Russia and China’s companies also failed to react to the proven emergence of reusable rockets. China has announced plans for reusability for rockets but they waited years and it will still be around 2030 before China will have what SpaceX has now.
Every SpaceX competitor is at least ten years behind SpaceX in terms of a Falcon 9 block 5 with a reusable first stage. They are fifteen years behind SpaceX in terms of a Falcon Heavy with first stage reuse. They are twenty or more years behind the Super Heavy Starship if SpaceX succeeds with that in 2020.
Tunnel Boring Machines and Tunnel Construction Industry
The Tunnel Boring Machine makers have many companies making incremental improvements at best. Boring Company wants to lower American tunneling prices, from between $600 million to $1 billion a mile to about $60 million. Boring Company wants to speed up tunneling by 10 to 30 times and to make all-electric tunneling machines. Boring Company wants to produce bricks on-site out of the dirt they dig and to reinforce tunnels as they are dug.
This is the ideal market for Elon Musk. One that has not had true innovation for decades and one where the experts will not respond for ten years after Elon gets his technology working and where the companies are not financially or corporately structured to quickly follow disruptive innovation. The management of the tunnel machine makers and of the tunnel construction companies are not ready to rethink innovation.
The Tunnel Boring Machine market is an over $5 billion per year industry. CRCHI, CREG, Dalian Huarui Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd., Herrenknecht AG, Hitachi Zosen Corporation, IHI Corporation, Kawasaki Heavy Industries Limited, Komatsu Ltd., Northern Heavy Industries Group Co., Ltd., and Qinhuangdao Tianye Tolian Heavy Industry Co. are major builders of Tunnel Boring Machines.
There are several types of tunneling machines:
* slurry TBM
* earth pressure balance shield TBM
* shielded TBM,
* multi-mode TBM, and others.
The shielded TBM segment generated a market share of 31.2% in 2017 and would dominate the market through 2025.
Based on geology type, the tunnel market has
* soft ground,
* hard rock ground,
* heterogenous ground, and
* variable ground.
The soft ground segment would grow at the fastest CAGR of 6.8% from 2018 to 2025. The end-user segment is divided into road transport, railway transport, metro & transit, utilities, mining, oil & gas, and others. The mining segment would achieve the fastest growth of 6.9% through 2025.
The Tunnel project companies are construction engineering companies that look to continue with business as it has been for decades.
Europe has US$572.6 billion in active tunnel projects. (42% of the total global value)
Asia-Pacific has US$477.2 billion in tunnel projects.
The Americas US$212.3 billion in tunnel projects.
The Middle East and Africa has US$108.9 billion.
The highest value of projects are at the execution stage, with US$790.1 billion, followed by projects at the planning stage with US$304.5 billion. The UK leads the global project pipeline, with projects valued at US$184.0 billion, followed by China with US$160.2 billion.
Annual tunnel spending should reach US$117.0 billion in 2021. The total length of total tunnel projects is 3693km with China leading with 457km.
Boring Company does not look like they will see a deep-pocketed competitor with innovation chops to match them in disrupting existing markets or to keep up if Boring Company creates new markets.
Existing subway experts just dismiss what Boring Company is attempting. Space rocket companies dismissed the SpaceX innovation until they were forced from the market.
What Technological Advances Have Been Made in Tunneling?
The advancements in TBM technology for the past 20 years are as follows.
* Machines continue to grow in size.
* Multi-mode machines allow for tunneling in changing ground conditions. As designers continue to put tunnels deeper underground, machine manufacturers are coming up with innovations to tackle these high pressures.
* Precast segmental lining technology continues to see major advancements. High strength precision linings can be produced to within 0.1 mm tolerance on a consistent basis. Gaskets can provide sealing for pressures up to 25 bar and more, and resist acidic groundwater with a pH of 3. Dowel and bolting systems allow for rings to be built quickly and accurately while providing high pull-out and shear performance. Steel fiber reinforcement helps minimize cracking and maximize casting time. Corrosion-resistant linings can now be cast into segments without the need for seam welding.
* Admixture companies are now able to customize soil conditioners and grout mixtures to tackle any type of ground conditions. Admixture technology for concrete has also allowed for concrete mixes that limit deterioration and greatly increase strength.
None of the work is addressing the kind of innovation that Elon Musk is attempting with Boring Company. There is no tunneling companies currently looking to disrupt the speed of tunneling or to disrupt the cost of tunneling.
Bechtel is the delivery partner on Crossrail, a new east-west rail route across Greater London. Bechtel delivered some 250 miles (400 kilometers) of tunnels for infrastructure projects including city development, rail, airports and roads.
There is no highly active group with large research and development.
Tesla Electric Cars Has More Competition for Electric Cars and Batteries
Tesla is seeing a lot more competition with companies scaling up battery factories and with new and old car makers making electric cars and trucks. Tesla usually leads with innovation but car makers respond in the same year or within three years.
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.