China GDP Growth Drops to 6.3%

China is reporting a GDP growth rate of 6.3% and unemployment of about 5.1%.

The agricultural production situation is relatively good, and the summer grain has achieved a bumper harvest. The total output of summer grain this year has increased by 2.1% , which is the same as the highest output in history in 2017 . Industrial growth was basically stable. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% . In June , it increased by 6.3% , 1.3 percentage points faster than that in May . Service industry maintained a rapid growth in the first half of value added services grew by 7% , from the point of view of production index of the service sector, 6 month than 5 accelerated the month of 0.1 percentage points.

Consumption growth has generally accelerated. In terms of total retail sales of consumer goods, the first half of the year increased by 8.4% , slightly faster than the first quarter. The total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 9.8%, 1.2 percentage points faster than that in May.

46 thoughts on “China GDP Growth Drops to 6.3%”

  1. Consumption is falling auto sales the best barometer of consumption have fallen by 12 percent in the last year. If your auto sales are falling so is consumption. China’s GDP numbers have always been suspect but the latest claims defy reality with both consumption and exports falling there is no way China is growing at 6.2 percent unless the government is paying people to dig holes so they can through money into them.

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  2. Gonna need a study between human growth and silicon transistor growth. (The latter is kicking everyone’s ass)

    Human growth in the economy is over and if no one says anything now…I hope you’re planning on uploading yourself or dying a horrible slave death.

    You’ll see that human labor is in a massive recession / depression. Transistor / silicon labor is in a renassaince / exponential growth curve. The tiny % of humans getting to make all the money have deemed themselves “elect”, similar to the divine right of kings.

    Talk to anyone in Silicon Valley who is making bank, they talk about themselves as though they’re Egyptian Pharaohs or something. The hubris is at a level never seen before, some even think they’ll literally be immortal. Yeah….that’s like the G’ould of Stargate SG-1 level hubris.

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  3. Not if they knew their economy growth was running out of steam and will eventually hit a wall. Plus people know that it is really not 6% at all.

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  4. This just in… China has manufactured over 400 million pairs of shoes this month and the chocolate ration has doubled. I’m all for improving living standards in China, I’m just over this propaganda bullshit. 4 lights not 5.

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  5. Bad debt can hide this, assuming debt grows as a percentage of GDP faster than GDP growth. That is exactly what has been happening in China for 11 years now. We cannot know for sure actual GDP growth for those 11 years until debt growth drops below GDP growth.

    40 trillion in debt created since then. Like 95 trillion in output created. Not a convincing enough ratio.

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  6. Most of us stopped reading anything Godfree writes a long time ago. You won’t learn anything except the progress of his fantasy life.

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  7. There are still hard numbers that aren’t under Chinese control.

    Chinese exports are known because they have to match the imports reported by other countries.
    Chinese imports are known because they have to match the exports by other countries.
    Km of road and rail built each year are physically observable on Google earth etc.
    GW.h of electricity produced has to roughly correlate with how much coal and gas is imported/mined and used.

    THey can fudge a few % here and a few % there. And of course build up big debts. But they can’t be too far out for too long or the known numbers end up out of step badly enough to be obvious.

    And yes, this applies to places like the USA and Europe too. We apply lesser or greater amounts of skepticism depending on our opinion of the particular government, and their motivation and ability to lie. But over time they are either roughly correct or it becomes obvious.

    Though… the USSR ran itself right off a cliff and even a year or two before we had very few voices saying it was about to crash. Though the Chinese economy is far more integrated with the world than the soviets ever were.

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  8. I grow tired of this crap. China isn’t 30% larger and didn’t overtake the US in ’13. You believe that shit go and pay for your contracts in your free floating yuan… oh wait you can’t.

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  9. Maybe but not at the cost the Chinese are paying? China issued over 10% of GDP in new debt just January to June.
    How much long term wealth are they burning to create short term income? Until the cracks begin to show…
    The USA federal government is expected to run a 5.1% GDP deficit for this whole year. So glass houses and all. Just less glass than the Chinese.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/loans-to-private-sector

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  10. This is what they are reporting. They are probably in a recession by now. Can’t have a fast growing economy with very little free market, real estate crisis on hold, huge debt in every level that continues to be created without control and negative birth rate. All the nice government initiated amazing projects reflecting a super power dreams and the military expansionist policies will not help here. Let’s help break China back and make India the next super power rather than China for a better world, this is a point that I agree with President Trump!

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  11. When an economy grows over the long term inefficiencies creep in that can only be squeezed out by a recession. And the longer the duration of the growth the more painful the recession. Right now the Chinese economy still has some momentum, but the signs of it slowing is not a good thing because growth can swing into a severe downturn easily.

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  12. But china GDP growth indirectly boosts the rest of the world too. And the inverse is true too. If China’s economy hits a break wall that would cause a world-wide recession of not great depression. The growth might switch to Africa but might not be enough to stave off the recession. Of course in absolute numbers the recession might still look better than today’s growth but it will be painful nevertheless…

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  13. What is important is the relative value vs the last year/quarter. And many countries , including US , would be ecstatic to have “only” 6% growth

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  14. The lack of noise in China’s GDP data… and the lack of noise in the components of their GDP… is astounding.

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  15. How do you measure economies? By mouths? When you say “bigger than ours” is ours Australia, UK, Germany? The USA is #1.

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  16. Most people in charge of world economies do not laugh when China drops that much in one quarter.  In fact that will have major influence on many decisions by people in charge of banks and governments.

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  17. I’ve been paddling around at the shallow end of the deep pool of Beijing’s figures since 1951.

    By now, I can now check almost any official statistic against several others, usually from open, multinational sources like the World Bank, the CIA and the OECD. 

    So far, the figures line up: claimed GDP growth matches (actually trails) observed wage rises of 6% a year compounded, for example.

    The WTO says the country’s exports and imports match its records, that its trade is in balance with the world and that exports are moving up the value chain as predicted.

    Authorities as diverse as Mark Mobius, who invested billions in both countries, says China’s stats are as good as Canada’s. So does Hong Kong University’s Prof. Carsten Holz, who has devoted decades to verifying China’s stats.

    I suggest you go to China, as I do, and visit second, third and fourth tier cities to see if what you see lines up with the official stats.

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  18. I always laugh when people think economic numbers are accurate enough that the digits after the decimal place matter.

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  19. If this is the numbers China is “reporting”, they may even already be in a recession. Does anyone think China’s reported economic numbers are accurate?

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  20. If the numbers are correct, even in direction rather than exact value, then this points to a shift from production to consumption.

    Something that some economists (eg. Michael Pettis) have been suggesting for years is absolutely necessary if China isn’t to run into a brick wall. Or at least it will be a padded brick wall. Maybe a wooden wall with a tiny bit of give in it.

    After all, China can’t keep increasing exports at a rate that exceeds the growth of the export markets. Eventually they reach 100% market share and then what?

    Note that this doesn’t change if the “real” numbers are 4% growth with consumption rising 6% or whatever.

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  21. Wrong reporting Brian.  GDP growth is now at 6.2%.
    It is 6.2% in the second quarter and 6.3% is the average for the first half of the year.  The growth went from 6.4% in the 1st quarter to 6.2% in the second and I predict will be at 6% at the end of the year and well bellow 6% next year.

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