Futurists Ray Kurzweil and Elon Musk Could Have Last Laugh Over Barrons

Jack Hough wrote an article mocking the Kurzweil prediction of the Technological Singularity and Elon Musk stating that there is a 70% chance he will move to Mars.

Ray Kurzweil gives his predictions a 10-15 year grace period. This means Ray would consider himself correct if the Technological Singularity occurred between 2031 and 2059. This is padding around Ray’s prediction timing of 2045. There is tens of billions of dollars each year going to develop artificial intelligence and if AI were to become dominant in cloud computing and IT then it could grow into a trillion industry. A lot of very interesting AI capabilities might happen in the 2040-2059 timeframes that Ray has open for the realization of a Technological Singularity.

Jack is mocking Elon Musk, when Elon Musk owns a vast chunk of SpaceX. SpaceX has over 60% of commercial launch and should complete 10-12 more launches of Starlink satellites by the middle of 2020 for a minimally operational mega constellation. A fairly robust coverage of the northern hemisphere should be ready by the end of 2020. Elon Musk is 48 years old.

Elon is now worth about $30 billion and has moved up to become the 33rd richest person in the world. Tesla and SpaceX have seen valuation surges and could easily double in the next 12-18 months. This would put Elon Musk in the top ten in wealth. The Starlink constellation could drive SpaceX value up to $200-400 billion by 2025. This would make Elon Musk the wealthiest person in the world and if SpaceX could match the $40 billion revenue of Direct TV, then it would have about twice the budget of NASA.

SpaceX will have its fully reusable Super Heavy Starship with 1 to 5 years.


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