Professor Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization, estimates that two-thirds of the world’s population could catch coronavirus. He is co-director of the Centre for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida.
Professor Ira Longini tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China.
Prof Longini’s modeling is based on data showing that each infected person normally transmits the disease to two to three other people. A lack of rapid tests and the relative mildness of the infection in some people also makes it difficult to track its spread.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a researcher at Imperial College London, estimated that as many as 50,000 people may be infected each day in China.
Professor Gabriel Leung, a public health professor at the University of Hong Kong, has also said close to two-thirds of the world could catch the virus if it is left unchecked.
Coronavirus Compared to Seasonal Flu
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a 2017 estimate from the US Center for Disease Control. This is higher than the previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.
Seasonal flu cases 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness each year.
5-20% of the US population gets flu each year.
The flu has resulted in 9.3 million to 49 million illnesses each year in the United States since 2010. It is estimated that the flu results in 31.4 million outpatient visits and more than 200,000 hospitalizationsTrusted Source each year.
During the severe 2017-2018 flu season one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people in the US were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu