France, Spain, Italy, USA, UK, Belgium and Netherlands are the global hotspots for coronavirus. Belgium and the Netherlands have much smaller populations but have about half of the deaths per capita of Spain and Italy.
Will the lockdowns and sheltering in place and reasonable access to testing enable countries to reach peak cases in April?
The big factor for world coronavirus impact is whether countries like India will be able to control it. India is partway through a four-week shutdown. There are calls to extend the shutdown in India by another 4 weeks.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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82 thoughts on “April 5 Status of Coronavirus in Europe and USA”
So, not between specified hours then?
They did it in vuhan.
Even grosseries/pharmauticals was home delivery only
No civilians allowed to go outside their apartman complex for any reason for ~70 days
Actually, a curfew is a regulation requiring people to remain indoors between specified hours, typically at night..
So not even China has that.
‘Stay at home except …’
is not a curfew.
According to your chocolate link, Nigeria has very high levels of lead contamination and blood levels.
So we should see a Nigerian Covid19 disaster if this theory is correct.
30 sample points is usually waved around as the starting point where normal statistics can start being used, but that assumes a bunch of other factors too, such as the data points being independent.
In this case it’s not really so. You can get 30 cases from one or two stupid individual people or events. One big wedding in the Duchy of Grand Fenwick and you get 30 cases in a population of 6000 while across the border in Ruritania the capital city has 10 times that population without a single case.
Except for all the western countries who have it already implemented.
Scary has long maintained that neutrinos are a conspiracy. Like really, really small UFOs.
I have no background on which to evaluate this claim.
Gee, thanks, d0uche n0zzle!
Once you have 30+ deaths you do have statistically meaningful results. That is the case in San Marino.
Says who? Said when? Have a source that isn’t a Russian or Chinese state backed propaganda outlet?
In NY 3,043 out of 5,489 deaths high blood pressure was present:
So what can be done? Eat less tubers and root vegetables. Avoid European Balsamic Vinegar. Avoid chocolate that has lead. Some has it, some doesn’t: https://goodfoodfighter.com/why-is-there-lead-in-my-chocolate/
The calcium in milk, yogurt and cheese can help remove lead. As can calcium supplements that don’t already have lead in them. Calcium carbonate is usually pretty clean.
Then there are somewhat more extreme measures. NAC (N-Acetyl Cysteine) can help remove lead and other heavy elements. And it helps Relieve Symptoms of Respiratory Conditions: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/nac-benefits
Then there is EDTA…which is interesting stuff. But I don’t recommend as it can remove metals you need as well.
There are also results from testing for for lead: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/17/health/baby-foods-arsenic-lead-toxic-metals-wellness/index.html
You guys have seen me go off on lead probably 30 times. And this may sound strange, but it is conceivable that people with more lead in their systems may do much more poorly with this disease due to that lead.
It is all hypothetical, but consider that the #1 risk factor other than age is high blood pressure. Guess what. Lead raises blood pressure: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180312201739.htm
Next consider that African Americans in old industrial cities have 2-3x as much lead in their system. And older people have collected a lot more lead over they years in their bones: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/lead-poisoning-and-health
Then there is smoking. Smokers tend to have more lead in their system: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/tswj/2012/729430/
Then there is the fact that this disease is not hitting countries with few cars, even if the people suffer malnutrition and have all sorts of diseases such as in African countries and India. Now, maybe it just will take time for this to penetrate these areas. But if that doesn’t happen, it would be very suspicious. Next consider that the old Soviet block countries never put lead in their fuel, and these countries seem to be doing just fine. They have cars, industry, urbanization and the rest, yet they are spared? Why?
Compare for yourself the lead areas to the virus areas in the US: The lead map: https://www.vox.com/a/lead-exposure-risk-map
Various cities have maps of the virus spread.
Do you even know how to read a demographic chart? Sticking fingers in your ears and shouting la-la-la-la-la isn’t going to work.
Hmm, a person hiding behind a persona on the internet, dismissing tens of thousands of dead calling someone else a coward. Interesting.
I’m not even sure what you trolls are proposing. Go completely back to normal? Good luck getting people to travel and go to bars, etc. There will be economic damage anyway. And I don’t think it is fair for keyboard cowards like you to ask our health care workers to deal with the mountain of cases that will come crashing down on them, putting their own lives on the line.
Not my favourite thing, but great.
Spoke too soon. Deaths and infected have risen a lot again today. 🙁
Curfew for 2 months is brutal but works against any infectious disease.
No western countries even think about it.
So, we’re f*cked until vaccine arrive, they are not.
I bet stoners are going to kick the bucket. Marijuana destroys the lungs. Folks smoking weed are asking to either die or get really, really sick. Cannabinoid receptors are on immune cells and induce immunosuppression.
Lung function is key to all this. Once you start drowning, rest of the co-morbidities contribute to dying. China has chronic air pollution, the US and others have Deadheads.
China has a huge population of elderly people relative to the younger generation due to the one child policy, think of an hourglass with a pointed tip (one child was from like 1970 to early 2000s). The US is a cylinder with a tip, minus immigration.
Also, not really believing the China line on having no new cases domestically. From any modeling standpoint, it makes no sense. Also, I have been to China a few times and it seems impossible to me that they could stop it in it tracks like that based off the culture I saw. It just would have spread too fast, just take one trip on a Chinese overnight train and tell me I am wrong.
Iceland is not the world. In fact, it might be even LESS deadly than seasonal flu for them, given the latest data. They’ve tested a LOT and the CFR (case fatality rate) is amazingly about 0.1 (given you need to include total tested positive rate). Then again, they are generally very young, and healthy, and very few in numbers. But most of all, very few smoke. And they can easily quarantine, quickly. They also had the same CFR for the 1918 outbreak as most countries (about 2.5%), and what saved them was the quick quarantine. What killed them back then was poor health.
And yes, death rate is what counts. But no, it is not your run of the mill seasonal flu. Otherwise, why has NYC run out of places to put the dead? NYC is dimensioned for “seasonal flu”, and this is not it.
Does anyone really believe that China has almost no new cases for about 6 weeks?
Again I ask.
All the figures I have suggest the vast majority of people in intensive care are elderly or have pre-existing conditions. I’ve posted Italian death statistics.
Just sit back and enjoy the soft currency reset.
Glad to hear that. Also over quarantine I introduced my kids to Portuguese Linguiça. You guys did good!
Don’t bamboozle him with words!
If you are getting paid to post this then you aren’t getting paid much.
The guy who posts in this thread that this virus is a CIA plot says “No conspiracy theories please”. That’s rich.
I’d mock you but based on the inconsistency of your posts I suspect your short term isn’t up to tempering the mocking.
Yes the sudden disappearance of those no longer working would do wonders for the world economy. No social security payments, no Medicare payments.
Why it’s most certainly the first move of our future AI overlords 😉
Learn to demographics Luca. It’s all about percentages, not total numbers.
I can’t believe I have to actually point this out to you.
That’s the crux of the question: how many of us we want to die off before a working cocktail of meds is found?
Not a vaccine (that will come too, but later), simply some pills that you take and turn covid-19 into just another annoying flu.
Because it will be found, in a matter of weeks or months (probably already has), and when someone finds such a cocktail that can be made cheaply and in enough amounts for everyone, humanity will reap the benefits and this catastrophe will be finally over, and nobody will care anymore about getting this damn virus.
But for the moment, what matters it’s to hold on and survive, and reduce the number of deaths as much as possible.
There are younger people who require ventilation, absent which they would die.
Younger people are actually dying without medical treatment?
Exactly. So I will watch the spread of the virus through India with keen interest
Given all the faulty assumptions the simulators are making, it’s no wonder they are missing their predictions so badly.
They couldn’t hide something like a Wuhan event. The climate may have something to do with it. Genetics and lower rate of smoking also. There are a lot of things we do not know yet.
What other doomer theories do you subscribe to, genius?
No, what I’m saying is I don’t know.
I’ve reasoned that since the introduction of this virus in India, 80 days have passed and I would expect to see millions of infections by now and we’re not seeing that.
Yes, let’s wait another month. If India is up to 50,000 in real numbers now then I expect this number to be in the millions in the next couple of weeks.
It isn’t following the rulebook, chubs. Whatever you think you know is probably wrong. Complain to the viral authorities.
You’re not looking so healthy yourself, chubs.
How many younger people would die without adequate medical treatment if we just let it rip and sealed the corpses in their homes? You can dismiss BoJo as fat and expendable, but about 50% of the western world is overweight or obese. I know you can dismiss it as a comorbidity and therefore not worth worrying about, but losing a significant chunk of our human capital would also be bad for the economy. Just saying.
Of course, if we want to stick the wrinklies on an ice floe, we could start with Trump (and Pelosi et al). He’s fat too.
So your argument is that it doesn’t spread? You are saying there should be millions of deaths in India and there are not (I don’t agree), then the virus must be benign or not easy to spread? That does not square with experience elsewhere in the world. Ecuador has a tropical climate as well and has the stacks of bodies. Perhaps it is a climate thing. My guess is that the bomb has not yet gone off in India. We’ll see in a month if the containment measures there have been enough to stop the carnage.
is overweight and has suffered from weight related issues throughout his life.
I do not like him or his policies but I hope he gets well soon.
One 48 year old?! And we should destroy the economy and shut down the world for that?
Look at my Italian stats I’ve posted. Average age of deceased is 78 and only 88% had at least 1 co-morbidity.
Also you’re not right about India not having many seed cases. A number of Indian students returned from Wuhan universities, you have people returning from Iran, Italian tourists etc.
You can’t hide millions of undetected cases. That is the point. Maybe in China you could but not in India. If you’ve got millions of cases then you’ll have tens of thousands dead and this anomaly would be easy to pick up. We’re not seeing this out of India. No posts on social media about the millions of sick not being cared for by the government. No posts about the bodies stacked in morgues.
So where are the sick and dead? Are the Indians somehow immune to this virus? Is it a climate thing? Or is this bug not as big a deal as they’re making it out to be?
Well, agreed that those factors maybe cut that way, but I imagine there is a much higher level of travel around the country in the US vs India, and many more seed cases from other centres of infection.
Indians are also much younger on average than Americans. It could be that there are a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases.
What is your point? There are millions of undetected cases? Not sure what your point is.
Whichever way you look at the India situation the numbers don’t add up. There should be millions of people with the virus by now.
I don’t see why 1 case in India would grow any faster than 1 case in the US or most other countries.
Sanitation, hygiene, cultural closeness, to name a few. You yourself have touched on this in your other reply! You’re contradicting yourself. On one hand you’re saying spread in India should be no different to other countries yet those factors you’ve listed would make this disease spread like wildfire in Indian communities.
Either way, he was not likely to drop dead by summer.
Beyond those who die, many of those who survive will sustain perhaps permanent damage to heart & lungs.
Boris Johnson is in ICU…
When COVID-19 is spreading without much control it seems to grow at about 20% per day. Even after 60 days of growing at that rate (more or less unfettered) you would only have 50k cases from 1 initial infection. Roll it forward another month and you have 10M. India imposed a shutdown after about 2 months and so the spread rate (and R0) was likely reduced.
R0 is not an inherent property of a virus. It is modified by the context in which you find it. That is why changing the context (such as by social distancing, prohibiting travel, quarantines, etc.) is effective at slowing and containing the spread. That’s why slums are such a huge risk. Many large families, living in close quarters, with limited access to running water for hygiene and limited access to health care. You will get children caring for ill parents contracting the virus and then spreading it through the community.
I don’t see why 1 case in India would grow any faster than 1 case in the US or most other countries. The total vulnerable population is kind of moot until the number of infected becomes a significant % of the total population. Whilst the people an infected person interacts with are 99% or more still vulnerable (due to lack of immunity), then it doesn’t really matter what the population is. In some ways, India is probably better off because they had many fewer seed cases that countries with really high levels of travel with China and then Iran/Italy. It could well be that there are hundreds of thousands of cases in India that are not being tested. I hear stories of Ecuador with corpses stacked in the road because the morgues are filled. And yet Ecuador has relatively few cases confirmed.
I’m not sure what argument you are trying to make. Is it that COVID-19 does not spread as well as the R0 estimates of 2 suggest? We know it is definitely more than 1, otherwise we would not have a pandemic on our hands.
Dry cough, fever etc, etc. It would be pretty obvious.
Anyways, both you and Andrew have missed the point. See my response to Andrew.
You’re missing the point. Whether you test or not is irrelevant here. It’s about the contagiousness of the virus and how fast it is spreading.
I made a mistake. The first case in India was back in late January. So the virus had a lot more time to propagate through Indian communities then I initially thought. With R0 of around 2 just about everyone in India should have contracted the virus by now and millions should have died.
It would be very hard for Indian officials to hide the sick and dead.
Feynman “the Manhattan Project intern” can stuff it. Go draw me some diagrams of neutrinos Richie.
Btw, funny how you completely sidestepped the things I pointed out that contradict your “only US allies are being hit”
Here in Portugal things are looking good, number of deaths and people infected is dropping steadily.
Physician, heal thy self.
It also means they all get old at once. China’s demographics are terminal. China’s future is to be a basket case. Sadly, the US will probably end up feeding them out of charity.
I know type 2 diabetics that are shaped like pears and eat ice cream and I know one or two type 1 diabetics that are body builders. Life expectancy with diabetes is certainly reduced. I knew one late diabetic that took a kidney from her son and had me take her to the DQ for ice cream before dinner date with extended family. She left her works in the car and was incoherent through the whole dinner – 5exworkers take better care of themselves than many type 2s.
So, my comments, which are not passing muster with regards to political correctness, are being deleted. Just know that there are some people out there that are not fully swept up in this hysteria. I plan on saying “I told you so” 50,000x in the coming year when we try to piece this world economy back together without ushering in 70 years of communism.
See Andrew’s response. How would India even know who has Covid-19? test, test, and more tests.
How effectively do you think India is testing?
Only some of them. There is a 48 y/o who works for the same company as me who died. Diabetic, but he could have lived for decades.
Corona is airborne, and it remains active pretty long on surfaces. It means more or less everyone on Earth will be infected sooner or later. Then it is just a matter of genetics and pre-disposition and some logarithmic curves. Wearing masks, washing hands, social distancing delays the inevitable but doesn’t stop the process. Vaccines are not cures, just a way to help the body resist. Of those who get really sick, almost all die.
We can only hope there will be sufficient meds to help those who need it to boost their probability of survival
I am American only because I was born in a continent named America, not the country United States of America.
Venezuela is still there? Barely lol. You did not expect it to vanish, did you?
Just be careful with these figures.
Allies like Iran? Venezuela is sinking even more, directly and indirectly because of it.
There are some papers finding a link between lower levels of covid fatalities and mandatory public BCG vaccination programs.
Brazil and India have mandatory BCG programs since before the 50s. Meaning a big part of the elder population had BCG vaccination.
Iran only implanted such program quite recently. So their elder population does not have it.
USA, Italy, Spain do not have such programs.
Here we propose that national differences in COVID-19 impact could be partially explained by the different national policies respect to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) childhood vaccination. BCG vaccination has been reported to offer broad protection to respiratory infections. We compared large number of countries BCG vaccination policies with the morbidity and mortality for COVID-19. We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination (Italy, Nederland, USA) have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies. Countries that have a late start of universal BCG policy (Iran, 1984) had high mortality, consistent with the idea that BCG protects the vaccinated elderly population. We also found that BCG vaccination also reduced the number of reported COVID-19 cases in a country. The combination of reduced morbidity and mortality makes BCG vaccination a potential new tool in the fight against COVID-19.
I note India reported its first case in the beginning of March. So it would be fair to say patient zero was in India a while before that. How much earlier I cannot say.
Now India only started a lock down on the 24th of March so the virus had about a month to propagate through Indian communities essentially unhindered. So shouldn’t we be seeing millions of cases in India now (if R0 for COVID19 is about 2)?
Some interesting Italian stats here:
Things I noted:
1) Average age of someone dying of COVID19 is 78 (note that life expectancy in Italy is 82)
2) 88% of those who died had some other co-morbidity
A case for people dying with COVID19 rather than by COVID19?
Indeed, the CIA bioweapons lab in Wuhan really screwed up.
oh, look who’s talking about conspiracies
South Korea has achieved the same without even a lockdown, Japan also, it’s the East Asia discipline. In the West the lockdowns are a bit of a joke, destroying the economy while people still mix, often without even masks, in supermarkets, while “essential” workers run around the place wearing far too little PPE with many ignoring the rules about distancing both when at work and also not at work.
When countries reach the peak of new cases, that’s the halfway.
Most of the countries not even there yet.
When it’s over, the world going to be radically diferent,like permanently reduced travel :
So if you’re an idiot your comment makes a lot of sense.
Yes. It would appear that the halt of the virus spread in China is nothing less than miraculous. Every model I’ve seen predicts otherwise. How exactly did the Chinese achieve this, while deaths worldwide continue to escalate?
Even from a completely unethical and selfish perspective, it won’t benefit the young people if a large portion of elderly people were to suddenly perish from this virus.
One day you will be old too, and then you would surely like to benefit from the medical experience, investments, technology and data acquired from healing and extending the lives of the previous generation.
To quote from Richard Feynman “Reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”
Not sure. The western countries are culling their older population whilst China is still saddled with an unusually tall and narrow population pyramid.
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