Usually Half of Ventilator Patient Die But 80% of Coronavirus Ventilator Patients Die

Generally speaking, 40% to 50% of patients with severe respiratory distress die while on ventilators, but 80% or more of coronavirus patients placed on the machines in New York City have died, state and city officials say.

Higher-than-normal death rates also have been reported elsewhere in the U.S., said Dr. Albert Rizzo, the American Lung Association’s chief medical officer.

Similar reports have emerged from China and the United Kingdom. One U.K. report put the figure at 66%. A very small study in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the disease first emerged, said 86% died.

Some health professionals have wondered whether ventilators might actually make matters worse in certain patients, perhaps by igniting or worsening a harmful immune system reaction.

That’s speculation. But experts do say ventilators can be damaging to a patient over time, as high-pressure oxygen is forced into the tiny air sacs in a patient’s lungs.

SOURCES- AP

130 thoughts on “Usually Half of Ventilator Patient Die But 80% of Coronavirus Ventilator Patients Die”

  1. I don’t think the concern was the usual side effects but ones that happen specifically to cronavirus patients because of their weakened condition. Or maybe indeed they were exaggerated.
    Hopefully, if they do use this on tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, you are right, and it is no big deal.

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  2. “not sufficient to risk the side effects which are far from trivial on thousands and thousands of people.”
    I don’t want to belittle the the side effects of choloroquine, but put it in perspective, as long as it was useful as an antimalarial is was taken by millions of people.
    And today it is taken for Rheumatoid Arthritis.
    I myself took it at times.

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  3. What if you manage to train yourself so you *loose* your instinct not to breath in water? Would these people risk going to the pool and inhaling water out of habit?

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  4. Yes, I was assuming something like a massage table, but that’s not what an image search shows me.

    That box idea looks like masseurs should use it instead of the $high priced tables.

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  5. None of those quotes shows that Trump is advocating taking the medicine in a preventive manner. The quotes just don’t show that.

    They do indicate that Trump thinks that the medicine can be taken even if scientific studies have not been concluded that prove their efficacy. But that is a different thing.

    Furthermore, the quotes do not give any information about to whom Trump thinks the medicine should be given. Patients on the death brink? Patients that have been diagnosed with a light form of corona?

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  6. Fahrenheit was designed with the human body as a reference. 100 degrees was supposed to be average body temperature. And it probably was at the time. There is evidence that it is falling: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/01/the-world-may-be-warming-but-our-bodies-are-cooling.html
    But shunning it, when it is almost ideal for this purpose seems a bit odd.
    One degree F is close to 2 degrees C (5/9) so it tends to be more precise as well, unless you are going to drag everything out to tenths all the time.
    Dealing with water? Celsius is probably the way to go. Unless you are doing chemistry…then you want Kelvin.

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  7. Disappointing then that it is not being done more.
    Though, I was assuming that the face could be pointed down. It is murder on the neck to be in the position for long and not easy to cough. I did see one where they used some kind of box: https://www.nscrt.com/images/NSHA_Prone_Postion_Policy.pdf
    My intuition tells me that having the head lower though would be better for coughing up the crud…something closer to a chiropractic/massage table: https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Portable-Stainless-Massage-Table-Metal-massage_60723335847.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.0.0.21645d6aEoFTuy

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  8. Apparently it is important to get zinc in the cells to prevent the virus replication.
    And it would make sense some test trials didn’t work sometimes, if the real effect is to increase the cellular intake of zinc.
    If there is no zinc, there is no way to increase the zinc intake with drugs.

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  9. Mr. Kimhi, please don’t react so itchy: your original statement was unclear and confusing. Doctorpat just pointed you to that fact so that you could correct yourself, that is all. Could happen to me.

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  10. Wrapping body parts in aluminum foil can bring many advantages and benefits. For instance, it is great for fatigue, it alleviates painful joints, it softens the pain from burns and it can even be used to help cure you of a cold.

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  11. Medieval time people were obviously mathematically tougher than modern folk – they could handle temperatures with much bigger numbers.

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  12. Thought this might be of interest – trials for hydroxychloroquine related to COVID19:

    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=hydroxychloroquine+covid&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

    Some Italian researchers claim that Tolicizumab is more effective than hydroxychloroquine/Azithromycin. The FDA has approved a trial (called COVACTA) that has started but apparently won’t complete before end of August: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04320615

    and there are other Tolicizumab trials as well:
    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=Tocilizumab++covid&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=

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  13. Your “high genius” is useless if you can’t communicate your brilliant insights.

    Especially if your response to questions is always a personal attack.

    You made a typo, admit it, move on.

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  14. Doing a google search on “prone position ARDS” shows that no special beds or equipment is required. (Unless Google is fakenewsing me. (Yes I verbed that, deal))

    Just a normal bed, with padding under the chest and hips for greater comfort. And even in the text-book images they just use a rolled up towel or blanket.

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  15. You’re right. I’m finding papers and references that do say that.

    40.5 C (105 in medieval units) is a high fever, but not ridiculous, so that’s a possible avenue.

    Especially if it’s the chest that needs to be that warm, not so much the brain.

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  16. For comparison, A Carbon–Carbon bond has an approximate bond energy of 80 kcal/mol. Hydrogen-oxygen (a well known pretty high energy bond) is 467. Not 7.5 billion.

    This might be one of those cases where their poor english is hiding what they are actually talking about.

    But they repeat that binding energy, and several similar numbers, several times in the paper, so it isn’t a mere typo.

    My guess is that these are computer model guys who have no real biological or chemical knowledge using plug-and-play data and modelling software. They get out numbers and have no background to see that the numbers are ridiculous.

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  17. The Sweden way: “…Some maintain that the Swedish policy can succeed only in Sweden, because of its distinctive characteristics – a country where population density is low, where a high percentage of the citizenry live in one-person households and very few households include people over 70 cohabiting with young people and children. Those are mitigating circumstances which the Swedes hope will work to their advantage…”

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  18. But if it (or any other drug) does work well, it COULD be a way to end the lockdowns, if available in sufficient quantities that doctors could prescribe it for non-mild cases before that patient ends up in the hospital.

    Why would you object to that?

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  19. He implied it many times, like this: … It’s a very strong, powerful medicine, but it doesn’t kill people. We have some very good results and some very good tests. You’ve seen the same test that I have. In France, they had a very good test. But we don’t have time to go and say, gee, let’s take a couple of years and test it out. And let’s go and test with the test tubes and the laboratories. We don’t have time. I’d love to do that.

    If you can deduce that he is saying we should be using this and not merely testing this, you need to study logic. And at the same time he was saying he had tens of millions of pills for everyone. You don’t need tens of millions of pills for a test.

    And there is this: “Trump: What do you have to lose? And a lot of people are saying that, and are taking it. If you’re a doctor or a nurse, a first responder, a medical person going into hospitals, they say taking it before the fact is good.”

    And this: Trump: I want them to try it, and it may work, and it may not work. What if it doesn’t work? It’s nothing lost by doing nothing. Because we know, long-term, what I want. I want to save lives. And I don’t want to be in a lab for the next year and a half as people are dying all over the place.

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  20. While people were saying everyone should take it as a preventative that was not what I was referring to. I meant given to everyone who came to the hospital because they needed hospitalization for this diease.

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  21. They may say that, but they clearly don’t have to pay someone $416 an hour to watch?
    And one person per machine? That doesn’t have to be. One person could watch 8 machines easily. If anything happened to one, call in a second person to watch the other machines.

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  22. Apparently, I should have read it.
    That aside. It still makes sense to try to boost your red blood cell count with exercise and hemoglobin building diet options. My guess is a lot of people bought beans. Time to leave the frozen Twinkies in the freezer, Pringles in their cans and eat the beans.

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  23. Actually i know of combat area comparissons, falkland vs iraq, that colder climates often have higher survival rates, even verry cold in cases where people drawn in water, the cold slowed down human organs so much that there was no brain damage, as it was nearly shutdown deu to cold.. but that could be to much here, cold alone would not cure it, virus particles need to be diluted, or be broken down soap alike washing or by an antiviral. Or the vector of attack by the virus can be fooled, or attacked (solutions getting more and more extreme here). So I suggest diluting as with PFC’s as the easiest fastest way, this tech is allready proven to work people can breath with it, its known to dilute, what more do we need for a quick response?

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  24. Well i live in the celcius world, but other from that the raise of temperature is intended to brake virusses (think of protein boling), its a defense response from our body, however our response can be to extreme and kill ourselves, so a liquid can keep a temperature steady at 39, which is still fever but not 40+ as that would kill ourselves (at a celular scale the body isnt aware its getting to hot). Indeed protein might survive at higher temps, and thats why cooling helps.

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  25. “A molecular binding energy of 7,530,186,265.80kcal/mol. Really? That’s the 1/2 energy output of the Hiroshima bomb. To 12 significant figures.”

    Hahaha.. Love it!

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  26. Who is advocating giving the drug to *everyone*? Quote, please.

    Given the rather low incidence of side effects, I think this drug should be given to outpatients.

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  27. You know what? I would like to be friend of such a doctor…

    Why do you think they are hoarding the drug? Could it be that some governors are trying to limit the access to the drug? [1] [2]

    I support a certain level of “over prescription” as long as there is enough of the drug for the very serious cases.

    (1)
    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/5/rudy-giuliani-urges-andrew-cuomo-lift-hydroxychlor/

    (2)
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nevada-governor-bans-malaria-drugs-for-coronavirus-patients/

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  28. Yes, what is it, 80% risk of death once you are in a ventilator? I’d be pretty risk tolerant if I was facing such odds…

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  29. Well, we don’t know how many of those with c19 are actually diagnosed in Sweden, since only a fraction is tested. Most likely, mild cases are sent home without bothering to test them.

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  30. No doctor worthy of the title is going to give it to patients because Trump likes it.

    Unfortunately it appears there are some doctors unworthy of the title, who have hoarded the drug for friends and family… However, this just creates a nice paper trail to doctors who need to retire or be retired…

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  31. It’s not the machine, it’s the constant monitoring for associated problems – blood clots, infections, insufficient blood supply to limbs, etc.

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  32. Do you mean that the virus does NOT adapt well to humid, warm conditions? Because we don’t want to give them the conditions they like.

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  33. Maybe we should try LOWERING the temperature, to make the humans even less similar to bat/pig/chicken temperature?

    Body temperature of bats varies but goes up to 105 F during flight.

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  34. OK, first of all I am NOT saying this is a bad paper. I don’t have the background.

    BUT, there are some issues that make my spider senses tingle.

    1..The source is the School of Computer Science and Engineering. Now maybe they have a weird structure to their University, like Cambridge where everything is part of the Arts department. But still these are not people from the medical or biological science department.
    2.. The paper itself is just analysis of public data using publicly available software. It’s only as good as current, publicly available virus analysis software is, which isn’t that good.
    3.. The English is bad. Now it’s way, way better than my Chinese, but if I was publishing a paper in Chinese I’d hand it to someone fluent in technical Chinese to rewrite it (and be one of the authors). This is not written by someone with a good grasp of medical science English.
    4.. Haemoglobin carrying blood sugar?
    5.. A molecular binding energy of 7,530,186,265.80kcal/mol. Really? That’s the 1/2 energy output of the Hiroshima bomb. To 12 significant figures.

    On the positive side:
    4.. This is a paper where you can actually replicate the entire thing (or so it appears, I didn’t try myself). This is a refreshing and pleasant change.
    5.. They do not have the sort of garbage logic leaps and argument by analogy that most of the base level pseudo science depends on. This is a clear, logical sequence of thought, calculation and reason.

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  35. I see. If it is published in China, it must be crap. You have any other reason this should be dismissed out of hand?

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  36. The point of a fever is to change the conditions in which the pathogen took hold. It greatly increases the chance that the pathogen can’t function well. Most of this is related to enzyme function. Most enzymes have a window of temperatures where they work best. This is why we feel dreadful when our core temperature is too high or too low. Our enzymes don’t function right.
    This is also in part why some pathogens attack some species and not others. If they don’t have the right starting conditions they don’t tend to get a foothold.
    Does the fever accomplish anything against Coronavirus? I don’t know. I have my doubts as bats are pretty warm. I don’t think it does much for flu. It starts in chickens and they are 106 degrees F. Then moves to pigs at 103 degrees F, then to us at 98.6 degrees F. Boosting back to 103 probably does squat.
    But hey, maybe if the lungs are at 112?
    Could probably be done. Those ECMO machines control blood temperature. So they could cool while the lung liquid could warm. Of course, I am just speculating.

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  37. I value discussion with people of deferring political perspectives. There is usually common ground at least at the problem level, if not at the solution level. I used to like John Stossel who has now embraced libertarianism, but sadly with a less critical and objective eye.
    I am not one of those people who thinks that the belief in God and Science are mutually exclusive. Like all reasoning, science is limited by our ability (or lack thereof) to see what might be possible yet consistent with the data. I don’t put limits on God. He did and does what he does, uses what he uses. I hope it does not suprise you too much that I pray daily.
    There are also fraudulent and abusive atheist “scientists” who do a real diservice to science and education.
    I certainly don’t live an indulgent life…unless you count chocolate and cheddar but not together.
    I haven’t even been on vacation since 2008.
    I think the whole “escape velosity” thing smacks too much of elevation above Man. We are mortal, that is never going to change. Even a life of 1,000 years is trivial in the big picture. Though, I would stand a much better chance of getting the things done I’d like to do.

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  38. Still thinking PFC’s are the best

    • * It cleans the lungs – because of liquid circulation acts as virus dilution.
    • * Its safe in blood, can support the red blood cells (who are attacked by corona)
    • * A liquid can cool the lungs (against high fever)
    • * Its less stress on the lungs less, those organs work on underpresser, normally we don’t breath on overpressure as in ventilator machines thats harmfull.
    • * Because it can clean, it actually does something against the virus, reducing IC care time.
    • * More IC beds available during crisis time due to faster recovery
    • * If an emulgator can be added then that would brake down virus lipids as well.
    • * As fluid it allows to apply other liquid medicines (you cant breath aspering but you could disolve it and now get it there, aspering just as an example).

    And still not any reports of it beeing used, its science from the 90’s used in 2008 and then went sillent during corona?

    And oh you dont drawn in it, you dont even need your lungs to 100% full, PFC contain more oxygen as in normal air, depending on need a quarter or a half lung can do.

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  39. I can imagine people making a balance of their live and it has been enough for me let the people who I care about live instead of me, i dont fear death.
    I think a noble thought, still to save those people you care about improvement in lung disease handling are still needed because there are so many people needing it right now

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  40. the morning after – worse than the night before??
    “…you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, for there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness. Phase 1 (now) lockdown – 45 days/ 3 months/ 14 days after falling cases/stabilization; Phase 2 – a digital pandemic surveillance state w/ everyone downloads app so QR codes scan on mass transit or other risky public areas (like Asia); Phase 2b/3 – multi-million daily tests and tracing to return to an eventual 80% size economy (smaller in relation to post-depression early 20th)…” or, I guess there’s the Sweden way.

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  41. Dang hard to find. The pediatric ones are $40,000-$50,000. $80,000 for adult version. So they are not in the millions or anything. It sounds like the hospitals are really milking the system.

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  42. “Resource intensive” is the downside pointed out. Hospitals want $100,000 for the use of one machine for one patient, for 10? days, I think it was. It is currently just a machine to make rich bigger hospitals more money. Those big hospitals don’t want these things to become common as that is one less reason to go to a high-end hospital, and one less justification to charge outrageous prices.

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  43. Not a billionaire. And the geniuses have already designed and built these advanced machines. The advanced machines don’t need blood thinners or not as much. They just are not making many of the machines. Certainly patents in place and corporate types maximizing profits as usual.

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  44. Doctors do caution that ECMO machines are not the first option to replace ventilators, but Dr. Ankit Bharat says that it is an option that can buy time for critically ill patients. “It needs to be done at very select centers”, Bharat said. “It’s very resource intensive.”

    More development might smooth out any lingering pain points.

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  45. If you’ve been saying it for so long why don’t you get your money and genius to work and make them? Sounds like you got it all figured out.

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  46. Yes, most of these victims just had high blood pressure or diabetes and could have lived at least another decade. “Last legs” is nonsense.
    If most of these were 90 year olds, maybe you could say that, but most are in their 60’s, 70s and 80s. About as many in their 50s as 90s: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n#/views/NYS%2dCOVID19%2dTracker/NYSDOHCOVID%2d19Tracker%2dMap?%253Aembed=yes&%253Atoolbar=no

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  47. Kinda wonder if this would indeed be havoc for economies sure it does disrupt but all countries have it, might as well unite and put a focus on a different sector health care instead of oil and putting attention to the need of local production ea maker shops

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  48. Sweden’s results thus far are not stellar. 8.9% of those diagnosed are now dead.
    However, that is not an indictment of this treatment necessarily.

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  49. lungs are very sensitive. Even things you would think would help can hurt, like we learned from vaping and vitamin E.
    Ultraviolet light applied to the liquid outside the lung might work.

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  50. Just add a simple non toxic emulgator in the liquid that will brake down the viruses just like washing hands but plumping alone would already dilute versus particles a simple mechanical reason

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  51. Yes many people have been threated with it and also you don’t have to fill the lungs 100% . 25 or 50 can do the liquids contain more oxygen as normal air. Before 1990 500 people had such threatment for various hospital reason

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  52. Yes, the machines only buy time for the body to heal, they don’t cure or prevent the disease. That is why I suggested other things as well.

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  53. Very interesting stuff. Second link does not work though.
    Longterm this could do some damage as this will push the level of free radicals through the roof. But, compared to dying, it sounds great.
    And maybe they only need to add a little to keep oxygenation high enough.
    I wonder why they don’t use this more often.

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  54. 150 years back, people often lost their parents when the kids were still young. It was dreadful. All 4 of my great grandparents on my Mom’s side lost at least one parent while they were a child. And my grandfather on the other side. These were not divorces…deaths. None of this is atypical. Being orphaned was very common.
    Without experimentation, this would still be the case today.

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  55. So “Do no harm” should be replaced with “Just let people die”?
    Why even bother having hospitals; they are just so unpleasant places…burnt toast and jello?
    10 days of unpleasantness to resume your life? That is just tooo much.
    We need to issue everyone a self-destruct, so if they have any unpleasantness in their lives, they can just go plop, and auto alert the coroners.
    The only people left will be young and so insufferably giddy and full of themselves that they can’t see anything objectively.

    I respect everyone who has been through torture for weeks or months to avoid the pain and loss their death would impose on their loved ones…and recovered from…whatever. And I congratulate the experimenters that helped save their lives.

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  56. You forgot your chief complaint: that I think the government can do things to foster well running markets, protect the health and wellbeing of Americans by wise actions well in advance and with good planing. That the government needs to build good efficient infrastructure especially highways, tunnels, and new transport systems. Even building planned efficient cities to reduce crowding and traffic and foster economic development.
    I guess the timing of that complaint would loose its effectiveness.
    Hypochondria? I can see that. Why stop flu and other diseases. That would have stopped all this fun.
    I have been pushing the development of broad acting antivirals for years and years. Such terrible advise.
    I don’t expect to live forever. I just think that living a long time by proper care and technology when it presents itself (assuming retained abilities) is a responsible thing to do. And unlike many long life advocates, I care more about how people in the future may live longer healthier lives rather than being focused on extending my own life…or intensely concerned whether I will get all the treatments in time to “live indefinitely”.

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  57. Honestly, if I need something like an artificial lung or liquid PFCs, just kill me. Do I need to get a DNR tattooed on my chest to guarantee I won’t become some resident’s experiment? Just let people die. Geez. 4 million people die every year from pneumonia according to Wiki.

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  58. The attack is not on the drug, it is an attack on giving the drug to everyone without proper testing, because the President thinks it is a great idea. And because he single-handedly made it very hard to come by. So if it is found to be effective, doctors may run out.

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  59. Mindbreaker just hates orange man bad. It’s cool. He’s a hypochondriac that has given some good medical advice, and provided some interesting references, but boils his food because he is afraid of Maillard reaction products – he wants to live forever. I keep a shaker of salt for Mindbreaker comments and Jimmy Buffet songs during quarantine periods.

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  60. because Deep State Fauci could be sued for stepping outside of the guidelines that provide a legal framework for practicing medicine in the USA. It is unusual for Trump to beat a drum for a treatment, but it sure has lit a fire under people to investigate it. Koreans think it works, but they also practice Chinese medicine and the Japanese who also believe the drug works, actually came up with a diagnosis of “autobrewing” syndrome where fermentation allegedly takes place in a person’s guts at a higher than trivial rate – so Asians don’t necessarily stick to western textbook standards – JS.

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  61. The fact that I insult the President has no bearing on the effectiveness of treatments. He has zero expertise or respect for science. He has no business saying what the treatment should be.
    And if it was such fantastic advise, why hasn’t Fauci hopped onboard?

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  62. I never said to give up and try nothing. There are alternatives: antivirals, zinc, iodine, plasma infusion from the recovered. And I am fine with hydroxychloroquine being testing on a reasonable number of patients: 100-1,000.
    Giving it to everyone because the President thinks it is a good idea, is just dim.

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  63. I think they are just making up propaganda because once a critical covid person go on the ventilator they take too long to die…. so they run out of ventilators..because the rate of new crictical is faster than the rate of a critical person dieing on a ventilator…
    say it takes a healthy person 2 weeks to recover… a critical person on a ventilator is there for over a month slowly dieing… so they think… we’ll if 80% he’s going to die… let’s just not give them a ventilator and he dies in a week And saves a hostilely bed…

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  64. There is a reason we do studies of just a few hundred patients. Trump is basicly saying give this to everyone who has got this.
    Is it appropriate for someone in power with zero expertise to be deciding the appropriate course of treatment for tens of thousands?

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  65. If it works, I will be very happy, regardless of whether it makes Trump look better.
    My problem is his complete disregard for science and fact, his embrace of lies, and deception, and his stooping to cheating at everything he does.
    I have a very high regard for facts, almost at a point of reverence. When I am wrong, I more than accept that.
    There is a doctor saying in combination with zinc the treatment is working. If that is the ticket, I hope it saves a lot of lives…though I’d like to see if zinc without Chloroquine or its variants works as well or better.

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  66. The number of people they used ECMO on was very small. Possibly as few as 3. And they may have used that alone rather than in combination with anything else: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
    It depends on the machine, but there is a time limit for using these, so you need other interventions to try to help their bodies fight the infection quickly like plasma infusion from a survivor along with antibiotics.
    The alternative “invasive mechanical ventilation” (not the same thing as the usual ventilation) only had a 1% survival.
    Probably only the people who are almost dead are put on ECMO or invasive mechanical ventilators.

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  67. Moving the liquid is not a problem when it is used in combination with an ECMO machine. They have done this with infants. Though they usually fill the lungs halfway.

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  68. Back in 2010 I went through chemotherapy for lymphoma. The side effects of those chemo drugs were pretty nasty, with a frequency approaching 100%. You have to compare the risk of side effects to the risk of going untreated, and with Covid 19, once you’re in the ICU, you’re already looking at a very high chance of ending up dead.

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  69. Heck, aspirin has side effects, too, and some pretty nasty ones. I’ve taken antibiotics that had worse side effects than hydroxychlooquine is *likely* to cause. (Thus this ringing in my ears.) You ever bother to listen to the side effects warning during a drug ad on TV? Basically every drug anybody might take can, in rare circumstances, even kill you.

    Don’t confuse severity and frequency. Hydroxychlooquine, while not perfectly safe, is safe enough that it’s been prescribed as a prophylactic for people traveling to areas where malaria is common. You wouldn’t take it for laughs, but as drugs go, it’s on the safe end of things. And, notably, when used for treating Covid 19 you’re not on it for weeks or months, it appears to turn things around very fast if it’s going to work at all.

    Basically what’s going on here is a politically motivated attack on the drug due to it being associated with Trump. Disgusting.

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  70. The problem is that guy like Trump and Bolsonaro are touting the drug, subtly, as a way to end the lockdowns.

    AND for the drug to be mass distributed for people with MILD symptoms.

    HOWEVER, the drug DOES have side effects. And many people with mild symptons may never need the drug anyway.

    So you have a remedy that in those cases might be worse than the disease.

    Plus, when presidents tout a drug as “curing” Covid19, people will just STOP social distancing, and death rates may soar if the drug is not really that effective.

    So all this “we don´t have time for too much testing, we must use it now” talk may end up REDUCING the time we have, because it might get people to stop social distancing.

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  71. BTW – CNN’s headline on that article subtly twists the publisher’s criticism. It wasn’t the research that was declared flawed, but the published report.

    The specific criticism was that the report didn’t sufficiently detail the patient inclusion criteria and triage for patient safety.

    The CNN article validly points out the very small size of the study – in fact only 6 patients got both drugs and completed the study – and the success with those 6 was the basis for the “100% cure” claim. 14 got just the HCQ and only 8 of them were cured.

    The CNN article at one point criticizes the use of the term “virologically cured” as not being fully explained, but the article seemed pretty specific about what was meant by that.

    The bioethicist quoted by CNN accusing the study of ‘cherry-picking’ and ‘putting your thumb on the scale’, did so based on ‘leaving out five patients who took the drug and didn’t fare as well’. Except those 5 were carefully detailed in the report, along with why they didn’t complete the study, and the fact that the final results were reported only for patients that did complete the study.

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  72. There is data showing correlation between Corona illness patterns and cholesterol level.

    Many pieces of information points to pharmaceuticals affecting cholesterol and/or Q10 being the cause of severe Corona illness. Cholesterol is cruicial to the immune system and also the protection of the lungs. Patients taking statin drugs (diabetes) are over-represented among serious cases. Much of this is known before Corona but the industry makes huge amount of money on these medicines so there is a lot of incentive not to investigate.
    Informations is already at hand from China.

    Reference material links:

    Coenzyme Q10 in acute influenza
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26516142

    Low Serum Cholesterol Level Among Patients with COVID-19 Infection in Wenzhou, China https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3544826

    Cholesterol and COVID-19
    http://statinnation.com/blog/2020/3/26/cholesterol-protects-against-covid-19

    Effect of cholesterol on the molecular structure and transitions in a clinical-grade lung surfactant extract https://www.pnas.org/content/114/18/E3592.abstract

    The links etc. are taken from Lars Bern’s blog “anthropocene”. It is in Swedish so not so accessible to the world. https://anthropocene.live/om-2/
    You need to translate to english probably…

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  73. Are they using the prone (non-supine, belly-down) position in these cases? I have no idea if that is commonly done now, but there was an article about Italy switching to use it with good results. And apparently the benefits were determined relatively recent years.

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  74. My impression here in The Netherlands is similar: about 70 % of corona IC patients die.
    But there is another important number in this context: about 3/4 of all corona fatalities did not die on IC. That is: they were never on IC or removed from IC before they died, because IC no longer benefitted them.
    The average age of corona fatalities here is about 82.
    And there are strong indications that the true number of fatalities is much (MUCH) higher, because all officially reported fatalities were tested positive and mostly in hospitals.
    Many (MANY) fatalities are in nursing homes and similar institutions, where they died without being hospitalized and even being tested.
    This is probably the case all over Europe and elsewhere. Probably even more so in the US, where the healthcare system is much more conducive to many old, weak and poor people staying outside it, i.e. just dying at home.

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  75. Definitely not sufficient to risk the side effects? Are those side effects worse than death?

    While there are some nasty possible side effects they primarily occur while taking the drug. The worst of the possible permanent damage of which I have read would be retinal damage if the dose is too high. I’d hate that – but if the alternative is likely death…

    Since once you have to go on a ventilator your chances are pretty slim, getting close to that point might be the time to authorize using the drug.

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  76. Many doctors are saying that is needed is a simple humifier, as the virus in the lungs adept well to a humid warm conditions and medicine and steroids to lower inflammation of the lungs.

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  77. ECMO machines in the hands of experts might save a few lives, but any intervention which is saved for people at death’s door won’t do anything to lift lock downs. Those people are getting significant damage even if they survive, and by the time they’re in the ICU, they aren’t contributing to community spread anymore. Extreme treatments that help them survive won’t solve the overwhelmed hospital problem. If anything, the survivors will end up taking up more hospital beds.

    If we’re scared to leave our homes now, we’ll still be scared to leave our homes even if we pull 10,000 more ECMO machines out of a hat. Too late to manufacture the hat anyway, or to train the specialist rabbits that would need to come out and run them.

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  78. Plasma infusions won’t make much difference. It’s too hard to source to be used for mild or moderate infections, but once someone gets to the ventilator stage too much damage has been done already. It might lesson mortality a little.

    It’ll be good for the occasional important person, (like perhaps Boris Johnson), who will get it at the first sign of trouble.

    There is some work on deriving plasma from virus-recovered rabbits with humanized immune systems. That at least provides a means of mass production, but it would still only be used for those who are hospitalized (IV drips are like that). Slightly better, and will probably be held up by a year of safety studies.

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  79. I thought the death rate of ECMO covid-19 patients was so high in wuhan that they actively don’t recommend it over conventional ventilators?

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  80. People have done it, so, yes. Initial panic reaction that can be dealt with by tranquilizers, then you get used to it.

    The real problem is that the human diaphram isn’t up to moving that kind of mass repeatedly for hours or days; You get exhausted in a few minutes of liquid breathing if you try doing it on your own. It has to be pumped.

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  81. “An orange face”

    There you have the thing that troubles me. Almost everybody saying the stuff doesn’t work is a political foe of the President, which leads me to wonder: If he were dismissing it as useless, would they be touting it, instead?

    The problem here, is that there isn’t TIME for really good studies. We’re in an emergency situation. And, it’s not like hydroxychlooquine came out of nowhere: It was demonstrated to be effective against SARS, too. That’s why it was tried on Covid 19, they weren’t just trying stuff randomly, they already had reason to think it was generally effective on coronaviruses.

    Just that alone would justify it’s use against Covid 19.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16115318

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  82. The evidence for using hydroxychloroquine is incredibly poor: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/drug-hydroxychloroquine-french-study/index.html
    An orange face of prideful assertiveness does not change the laws of chemistry, physics, or statistics.
    I am not saying it can’t work. I am saying the evidence is very weak, definitely not sufficient to risk the side effects which are far from trivial on thousands and thousands of people.
    If they want to take azithromycin, I have no problem with that. Zinc, iodine, other minerals might help. The only thing we know has a good chance of working is blood plasma infusions from recovered patients. We should be using plasma infusions on every patient bad enough to need oxygen.

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  83. Eighty percent? Those are decent odds. The flip side is the idiot Bill O’Reilly spitting out lines like these, “Those Dying From Coronavirus ‘Were on Their Last Legs Anyway’”, that doesn’t help matters, and worse case, it’s a bad influencing thought for the Yam.

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  84. Been telling that before PFC’s can clean AND provide enough oxygen, has been used on people before 500 study cases before 1999, where it was noted that they cleaned lungs as well due to simple liquid flow. SO IT WOULD ACTUALLY CLEAN, where other systems wont clean lungs, only supporting them with air and to wait if a patient survives, the notes of cleaning came from TBC observations but where more a side observation as it wasnt their study case. Posted it Kaggle (where lot or researches hang out but apperantly no medical biologist). A simple case of liquid plumbing, cleans and will reduce thus hospital time, make more beds available.
    Now someone please do something with this knowledge I’m begging the world here.

    Here it’s even noted it works on corona type viruses (end of article) although cov19 didnt existed at the time of the article (2008) :
    http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-31802009000200008

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  85. I’ve heard that it damages the heart (credible), the brain (hm, isn’t that what hypoxia does?) and that it remains in your DNA after you seemingly recover.

    Yeah, kind of a super-virus, ain’t it?

    The fear is making us superstitious.

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  86. Anyone know what the German survival rate is with their machines? Do they have better machines? Are they using ECMO?

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  87. There may be quality control issues. New plastic may be giving off fumes. Or maybe those were the machines in storage because doctors liked them the least for good reasons.
    Though it could simply be that the red blood cells were no longer working in patients, so no amount of ventilation was ever going to work.

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  88. I read somewhere that the virus attacks the red blood cells and then they can’t do their job. I can’t recall where I read that, so I am not sure how valid that is. If that is what is happening though then they probably need whole blood from recovered patients not just plasma.

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  89. The remainder of 2020: “… expect partial reopenings by mid-May, driven by governors in healthier states, even if sub-optimal for the nation. By then R0 won’t stay below 1 for long, even if it gets there. We will then have to shut down again within two months, but will then reopen again a bit after that. We will then lose a coherent national policy on the shutdown issue altogether. The pandemic will yo-yo. At some point antivirals or antibodies will be brought in. Guess: “…perhaps 4-6 drugs could be available by Fall and be robust enough to impact risk of another epidemic or large outbreak after current wave. We should be making policy based on this…” We will then continue the rinse and repeat of the yo-yo, but with the new drugs and treatments with a death rate at maybe half current levels and typical hospital stays at three days rather than ten. Eventually a vaccine will be found, but getting it out will be slower than expected. The lingering uncertainty at the second and third waves will badly damage an economy trying to re-crystallize. Life will be so different – where there was once fire occupancies of 1 person per 50 sq.ft., in a building/ patio there will now be virus occupancies of 1 person per 200 sq.ft. (alternate booths, checkouts, and no dance floors)..” maybe the summer of 2021- a normalization…

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  90. You do realize that the reason the death rates were low from the Diamond Princess was because they used these fancy ECMO machines on them?
    That also throws the death rates out the window, as we have very few of these machines. 4%+ death rate is the real deal…without these machines.
    Someone needs to tell Musk that we need ECMO machines a lot more than we need respirators. Get these things built by the thousands.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-critical-coronavirus-cases-doctors-turn-to-last-ditch-lung-support-11586173914

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  91. How long have I been saying that what we need are ECMO machines and advanced ECMO machines? : https://www.draper.com/news-releases/draper-develops-artificial-lung-technology-treat-patients-suffering-short-term
    https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/ecmo-machine-used-to-save-covid-19-patients-life-officials-say/2251983/
    These things give the lungs a rest rather than pumping the heck out of them. It might even be possible to clean the lungs when they are not being used. Maybe with slow ventilation with very warm moist air with the patient slightly inverted and prone. Or even with a liquid like perfluorocarbon (PFC).
    And we need “human challenge studies” for vaccines to accelerate their development: https://www.futurity.org/human-challenge-study-coronavirus-vaccine-2324142-2/
    Or the vaccines are just going to be late…very late. We can’t huddle in our homes for a year and a half.
    We also need to be giving patients minerals especially zinc. Zinc is very helpful with colds and this virus is a member of the same group…just one our bodies have never seen before.
    And we need to get the recovered patient plasma donating thing going in a big way. We have known this works for 100 years. Why are we barely trying this? If 80% of people are dying on the ventilators we need to get these people better before we need the ventilator.
    https://gizmodo.com/can-humans-breathe-liquid-1156138301

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  92. First and foremost experimental pharmacologic therapy (hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir) should be made available to every patient who wants to try. This helps to avoid patients becoming dependent on ventilators. A ventilator doesn’t interfere with viral replication, it just helps the patient to survive long enough so that the immune system finds a way to reduce viral load.

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  93. I wonder if massively increased ventilator use isn’t resulting in some degree of carelessness? While the shortage of ventilators results in the ventilators only being resorted to when the patients are considerable worse off than would be the case ordinarily?

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