China Population is Not Shrinking Yet

China has said that its population did not drop in 2020. China had about 10-12 million births in 2020 and likely had just short of 10 million deaths. China has reported 9.4 to 9.8 million annual deaths for the last few years.

China’s annual census showed 1.4 billion people in China at the end of 2019. Zhang Zhiwei, a Shenzhen-based economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said “It is possible that China’s population is still growing but that the growth rate was overestimated in the period from 2011 to 2019.

China still has not released the 2020 census figures which were previously scheduled for release at the beginning of April.

SOURCES – Bloomberg, Reuters
Written By Brian Wang,

7 thoughts on “China Population is Not Shrinking Yet”

  1. China lost millions in the Covid epidemic. They showed on truck with earns that represented multiples of reported deaths for one month and there was 3 such trucks in that town. They had pictures of people dropping in the streets and apartments being welded shut. Yes their population shrank. Maybe it was their way to get rid of their excess old population. I would not put it past them given they harvest organs from minority prisoners.

  2. "I also said last time that China will probably lie about its 2020 census."

    Based on their track record in that and so many other things. I think they almost certainly did, because they have, and they probably will. Bad numbers are seen as a threat to the regime and they are a regime that doesn't scruple to create concentration camps for its minorities, deliberately and methodically assassinate entire cultures, and which is almost certainly using political dissidents as live organ donors. Their standard response to anything negative is to push the big lie and blame the blamer, even when caught red-handed. This doesn't inspire much in the way of trust.

    I also, despite everything, cannot get over the coincidence of the Wuhan outbreak right next to that lab. Pretty sure it wasn't deliberate, but I wouldn't wager two cents that someone wasn't looking ahead at potential ways to thin the huge population of elderly they have coming down on them (just as an potential option, if nothing else), by which time the bug might be made considerably more lethal, much more targeted (on the elderly), and a really good vaccine made available to the older folks in leadership (and their families). China has a reputation for such pragmatism going back thousands of years.

    If they want to be believed, they have a long, long way to go in establishing a solid record for credibility and, starting from near zero, as they would be if they ever do start, that won't happen in less than many decades.

  3. I posted the reports that China's population might already be in decline. If births are 10-11 million and deaths are 9.9 million then China is barely avoiding decline. Working age population is cratering. I do not see how this is pro-China propaganda. I also said last time that China will probably lie about its 2020 census. I also mocked China's reusable rocket video. China is f*ing up with its now two child policy. I have been saying that for a few years. China has to go all out pro-baby. Use IVF tech to the max and get free child care support and elder aid systems so that families will feel confident to have kids. This is the same for Japan, South Korea, most of Europe. All have to go pro-baby policies.

  4. Good news. Let's hope China is able to resolve this issue. Too many high-IQ countries face declining birth rates.

  5. The most important relevant number determining how strong country is or will be in the future, in my opinion is absolute number of scientists, engineers, AI researchers in a country(+of course size of R&D budget, in PPP $ China overtook US budget in 2020). As long as China will have more of them and will be rapidly increasing their net number in workforce (by 9m per year nowadays) they will be most technologically advanced and richest country. Simple as that
    That was the reason why US was nr 1 in last few decades. China, although all that time had 4,2x larger population only very recently matched US in STEM people in workforce numbers, majority of them still are working on catching up with the West, but as soon as they will catch up, new China will emerge and world will change.

    India also will have huge STEM population soon, but today they are still far behind in development and their r&d budget is tiny at the moment, therefore they will need more time to catch up with US, EU. On the other hand, they are rapidly developing 2020's instead of in XIX, XX century like the West so they can and will use modern tech and methods in this process of development, which will accelerate it enormously. So instead of 30-100 years of catch up, they can and will leapfrog Western countries and catch up quite soon. Maybe even in 2020's

    All that assuming we won't experience black swan event like AGI/ASI and achieve basically Singularity in next few years, which we probably will

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