Ford Electric Vehicle 2021-2025

Ford will increase their electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle division investments from $22 billion to $30 billion from now to 2025. Tesla still has more EV capital spending and research planned than Ford.

Ford has a new target of 40% EV by 2030.

Ford has new EBITDA target of 8% margin by 2023 which is up from 4% in 2019. Tesla already has EBITDA of over 20%.

Ford is investing in pouch batteries, solid state batteries and Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries. Ford wants to reduce their battery costs by 40% by mid-decade.

The current battery costs for Ford and GM is about $137/kWh in 2020. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). GM is targeting $100/kWh by 2025. Tesla’s batteries cost $83/kWh in 2021 according to analysis by Sandy Munro.

The Telsa Model Y gets 326 miles of range from a 75 kWh battery for a 4,416 pound car. The Ford Mustang Mach E gets 300 miles of range from a $99 kWh battery for a 4,727 pound car. Tesla is getting 34% more efficiency and range from its vehicles for the same battery pack.

The three biggest three battery makers (CATL, LG, Panasonic) are Tesla suppliers. Tesla is adding another China Battery supplier, EVE Energy. Tesla used about 12-13 GWh of batteries in Q1 2021. They took over one-third of the batteries from CATL, LG and Panasonic.

Almost all Panasonic batteries go to Tesla. In 2022, Tesla is supposed to double battery supply from suppliers to about 90-130 GWh. Tesla is targeting 100 GWh of their own 4680 batteries in 2022.

Ford shares battery supply from SK Innovation and with LG Chem.

Debt of Old Car Makers

All fo the big mainstream car makers have over $100 billion in long term debt. Tesla only has $9 billion in long term debt.
Ford’s long term debt = US$160 billion, $46B cash, net income -$1.3B- 3.7 B,
Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion, $83B cash, net income $15b-20B
Volkswagen $200B debt, $62B cash, $9-15B net income
GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( +$14B unpaid bailout loan), $29B cash, $9 B net income
Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion 

Tesla US$9 billion, $20B cash, $1 b net income

If competitors did not have so much debt their “valuation” would be $100-150b higher. Toyota at would be worth $380B if it did not have so much debt.. Old car companies carried a lot of debt and do a lot of debt financing for customers.

SOURCES- Ford, Tesla, Sandy Munro
Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

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