Ford Electric Vehicle 2021-2025

Ford will increase their electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle division investments from $22 billion to $30 billion from now to 2025. Tesla still has more EV capital spending and research planned than Ford.

Ford has a new target of 40% EV by 2030.

Ford has new EBITDA target of 8% margin by 2023 which is up from 4% in 2019. Tesla already has EBITDA of over 20%.

Ford is investing in pouch batteries, solid state batteries and Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries. Ford wants to reduce their battery costs by 40% by mid-decade.

The current battery costs for Ford and GM is about $137/kWh in 2020. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). GM is targeting $100/kWh by 2025. Tesla’s batteries cost $83/kWh in 2021 according to analysis by Sandy Munro.

The Telsa Model Y gets 326 miles of range from a 75 kWh battery for a 4,416 pound car. The Ford Mustang Mach E gets 300 miles of range from a $99 kWh battery for a 4,727 pound car. Tesla is getting 34% more efficiency and range from its vehicles for the same battery pack.

The three biggest three battery makers (CATL, LG, Panasonic) are Tesla suppliers. Tesla is adding another China Battery supplier, EVE Energy. Tesla used about 12-13 GWh of batteries in Q1 2021. They took over one-third of the batteries from CATL, LG and Panasonic.

Almost all Panasonic batteries go to Tesla. In 2022, Tesla is supposed to double battery supply from suppliers to about 90-130 GWh. Tesla is targeting 100 GWh of their own 4680 batteries in 2022.

Ford shares battery supply from SK Innovation and with LG Chem.

Debt of Old Car Makers

All fo the big mainstream car makers have over $100 billion in long term debt. Tesla only has $9 billion in long term debt.
Ford’s long term debt = US$160 billion, $46B cash, net income -$1.3B- 3.7 B,
Toyota’s long term debt = US$185 billion, $83B cash, net income $15b-20B
Volkswagen $200B debt, $62B cash, $9-15B net income
GM’s long term debt = US$100 billion ( +$14B unpaid bailout loan), $29B cash, $9 B net income
Daimler’s long term debt = US$106 billion
BMW’s long term debt = US$127 billion 

Tesla US$9 billion, $20B cash, $1 b net income

If competitors did not have so much debt their “valuation” would be $100-150b higher. Toyota at would be worth $380B if it did not have so much debt.. Old car companies carried a lot of debt and do a lot of debt financing for customers.

SOURCES- Ford, Tesla, Sandy Munro
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

10 thoughts on “Ford Electric Vehicle 2021-2025”

  1. agreed. The pickup/large SUV market was the motherlode. This is the difference
    between niche/early adopters -and- mainstream penetration. Issues remain: home/ work/ highway charging -and- low-pain sales/ maintenance. Also, competition with european and asian EVs into north america is an unknown – compatibility, parts, service, price…

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  2. Not convinced that Tesla can win (or place in) the pickup/ large SUV market share derby, irrespective of battery cost, range/ weight, pack reliability (reasonably), price (reasonably), etc. Ford F150 (and the Tahoe/ Suburban/ Expedition group) is a cultural icon with a dedicated (read: financially incentivized and fleet-connected) team of dealerships, mechs, and 'hometown' presence in the core markets. This 'soft stats' advantage will likely prevail in the mid-term (2 – 5 years) until all the other PU brands get in gear (silverado, RAM, sierra, tacoma….). When this market share dominance becomes even more glaringly obvious, investors, battery makers, and remaining (uncommitted) dealers/ fleets will bend-the-knee. That all being said, this F150 jump into the spotlight can only but help the entire big personal EV market — so, it is entirely possible that Tesla will likely sell more EV units overall from this increased 'interest' but will secure a much, much smaller market share — which usually translates into a lower valuation and share price. But, hey – hey, Elon will have managed to bring EVs to near-mainstream likely a part- if not a whole-decade earlier than as if he had been stuck in mandatory military service in S.Africa. ((would be interested to know if pickups and large SUVs are starting to penetrate in southeast Asia — which may make difference))

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  3. Bloomberg BNEF 2020 estimates

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/electric-cars-are-about-to-be-as-cheap-as-gas-powered-models#:~:text=Tesla%2C%20the%20world's%20largest%20EV,cost%20the%20automaker%20about%20%249%2C250.

    In 2020, The single most expensive part of an electric vehicle, accounting for about 30 percent of the total cost to consumers. Tesla, the world’s largest EV maker, pays an estimated average of $115 per kilowatt-hour for batteries, according to the BNEF survey, down from $128 last year. At this price, the 80.5 kWh battery pack in Tesla’s long range Model Y would cost the automaker about $9,250.

    Sandy Munro estimated $92/kwh in 2020 with a 10% drop to $83/kwh in early 2021. BNEF would then have Tesla at $100/kWh in 2021 if the 10% drop is correct. Which is roughly in line with the 10% drop from 2019. This is before the structural battery pack and the 4680 which appear headed for a late 2020 start and 2021 ramp.

    Cairn ERA seems to have a 20% higher number than BNEF. BNEF has a 15-20% higher number than Sandy Munro. Ford and GM are still way more expensive for their batteries than Tesla.

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  4. Your battery numbers are falsified.
    "According to Cairn ERA, Tesla pays an average of $142 per kilowatt hour (kWh) for battery cells purchased from its three suppliers: Panasonic, LG Chem and CATL. By comparison, GM pays an average of $169 per kWh for its battery cells while the industry average runs at about $186 per kWh."
    "While Cairn ERA’s research predicts Tesla will remain the cost leader in battery cells and EV battery packs through 2030, it also predicts GM will reduce that gap and get close to price parity with Tesla by the end of the decade."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/teslas-lead-in-batteries-will-last-through-decade-while-gm-closes-in-.html#:~:text=Cairns%20data%20estimates%20that%20Tesla's,per%20kWh%20for%20battery%20packs.

    Reply
  5. Brian, thanks for fixing the comments. They're a valuable part of the site and there are a few very good commentators in here.

    Reply

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