Tesla Gigatexas and Berlin Ramp and 2023 Production and Deliveries $TSLA

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April 2, 20023, Tesla Gigafactory Texas announced they had achieved a production rate of 4,000 units in a week.

Tesla Gigaberlin announced they had reached 5000 units in a week on March 25, 2023.

It took Gigaberlin 27 days to increase from 4000 units in a week to 5000 in a week.

In Q1, 2023, the production capacity of the Tesla factories could average:

3k cars per week from Austin, 3k cars per week from Berlin, 22k cars per week from Shanghai and 12k cars per week from Fremont would be 42k cars per week or 546k cars over 13 weeks. Tesla produced 440k cars in the quarter, which is about 106k cars less than capacity. Tesla was at about 80% of capacity. There was underproduction from Shanghai for Chinese New Year shutdown and retooling the model 3 line in Shanghai. China also has a slower car maker in the first two months of the year and China has had a significant economic slowdown. March might have been a sign of recovery in China. Tesla China produced 65,000 fewer cars than clearly achieved sustained peak production levels. The quarter was shorter by about 2 days than other quarters because of February. This is about 12,000 fewer cars. Adding the 77000 cars back in would be about 517k or 95% of capacity. 90% of capacity would be 491k. 90-95% of capacity should be achievable without constrained demand and more usual quarterly line shutdowns.

In Q2, 2023, the production capacity of the Tesla factories could average:

5.5k cars per week from Austin, 6k cars per week from Berlin, 22k cars per week from Shanghai and 12k cars per week from Fremont would be 45.5k cars per week or 591.5k cars over 13 weeks. 90% of this capacity would be 532k and 95% would be 562k.

Tesla Shanghai produced about 87,000 in March and has hit that level or higher several times months in Q4 of 2022. This is about 22,000 per week.

Tesla Fremont produces about 12,000 per week and is scaling to 14,000 per week.

In the second half of 2023, Berlin and Austin should be at the 10,000 to 12,000 per week levels and Fremont should be at 14,000 per week.

Tesla would have the capacity to produce 1.4 million to 1.6 million cars in the second half of 2023.

10k cars per week from Austin, 10k cars per week from Berlin, 22k cars per week from Shanghai and 12k cars per week from Fremont would be 54k cars per week or 1.4m cars over 26 weeks. 90% of production capacity would be 1.26 million.

14k cars per week from Austin, 12k cars per week from Berlin, 22k cars per week from Shanghai and 14k cars per week from Fremont would be 62k cars per week or 1.6m cars over 26 weeks. 90% of production capacity would be 1.44 million.

If Tesla were to reach 90% of projected production capacity based on the ramp of Berlin and Austin and some growth in Fremont (or Shanghai) then the remainder of the year would have 1.79m to 1.97 million. This would be 2.23M to 2.42 million cars produced in 2023. Tesla will likely end the year with 3 weeks of inventory or in transit vehicles. This will be up from 15-16 days of inventory. This would be 162k in the lower part of the range or 186k in the higher part. There are already 75k cars in inventory or transit and 17k was added in Q1. This means adding 86k to 111k to inventory over the last three quarters and 103k to 128k over 2023. Tesla should deliver about 2.1M to 2.29M cars in 2023.

New Semi and Cybertruck will not reach a combined 100k in 2023. An early and strong Cybertruck ramp in late 2023 could see up to 50k vehicles.

Immaculate execution and strong demand would see Tesla reach 95% of production capacity and Berlin and Austin could reach higher plateaus in weekly production. This could add 100k-200k in cars over the year. Dropping to about 85% of production would remove 100k.

If Tesla slows the ramp in Berlin and Texas or more demand problems, then Tesla could go to 85% instead of 90% of achievable sustained production. 2023 would go to 2-2.2M. If the plateau for Berlin or Texas is lower (factory ramp or demand issues) than I think then that would also lower the projection. Texas demand should be stronger because of IRA (Inflation reduction act). Europe probably needs more significant price cuts to push beyond 85k car demand in a quarter to absorb 150k cars.

3 thoughts on “Tesla Gigatexas and Berlin Ramp and 2023 Production and Deliveries $TSLA”

  1. If I understand correctly, you have to file a 10k application to increase production. At this time, both Berlin and Austin have permission to produce 500k per year each, which means that they will max out at about 10k per week. This will probably happen at the end of the year, not in quarter 2

  2. We’ll see. Is it temporary or recurring? Is demand dropping or rising? Are the costs to manufacture rising or falling?

    Rumors swirl, but the financials released in 3 weeks will give a better picture of what is really going on.

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