Prigozhin, leader of Wagner, appears to have moved fast and taken Rostov – southern military command. He knows where the Russian military leadership is.
UPDATE: The coup or whatever this event was ended one day after it started. Prigozhin struck some kind of deal with the leader of Belarus as the broker. It is all very strange. We will not know what really happened for some time.
He has sent his forces toward Moscow but stopped and turned back 200 kilometers way.
Wagner and Prigozhin could win if enough of the Russian army flips or stays neutral. Wagner would then just need to take out FSB (aka renamed KGB). He was Putin’s cook and buddy for a while. He probably thought of who has to be taken out and knows where key players are.
There are reports of certain elites flying out of Russia.
Putin does not have loyalty. He has fear. If the fear is broken by 25000 actual military guys inside Russia then Putin could lose.
It is up to Wagner to build momentum fast enough to get key Generals to choose not to act. It is up to Russian security forces to rapidly break up the coup.
Ukraine military could get key openings with weakness in Russian lines, if enough troops are diverted.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Good writeup!
I have read that Putin is leaving Moscow. I think this does not bode well for his continued leadership.
I cannot say that I know all there is to know about Russia, but I think they have so focused on defeating Ukraine that they have left much of their country open for a move such as this.
Only simpletons wish for a Prigozhin victory. He is far more insane then Putin. Still he may show a greater ability to fight Ukraine and his finger on Russia’s nuclear weapons yet even lighter.
I don’t want Prigozhin to rule Russia but I doubt he can unify it the way Putin has so his rule won’t last long. There are people in the military who agree with him and will join him but there are also those who hate him because, while he whines about the same ammo shortage and supples and poor army leadership everyone has to deal with, his guys get a lot more than the share everyone else deals with.
Hopefully, whether he takes Moscow or not some republics (especially the mostly Russian republics*) will see this as an opportunity to break free of Moscow rule while anti-Wagner army forces keep fighting Prigozhin.
*For Russia to lose it’s imperial nature there will need to be more than one ethnically and linguistically Russian states. As long as it is only non-Russians breaking free Russian nationalists will see them as lost territory which requires retaking like they see Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltics etc.
Well, I didn’t think that this war/invasion could get any stupider.
From a backward, has-been, never-ever-quite-super power’s attempted genocide (or complete cultural dominance) over one of eastern Europe’s most poor and culturally stagnant societies, gone to farce.
Ineffective use of a huge military, mostly ‘generations-old’ tech, poorly mobilized and lead into militarily insignificant regions of Ukraine, without a vital infrastructure of well-supplied, industrial compelx to support them. Air support? Lobbing out-dated ‘panic’ missiles into civilized areas of a People bent on resistance and perseverence?
This was the most ‘hail Mary pass’ of all attempted conflicts and invasions. Though, I never felt that Russia could be 100% expelled even in 3 – 5 years, the chance of political, land, and cultural control of Ukraine was never productive nor possible. A zombie country for years.
But this somewhat-unexpected ‘internal catastrophic implosion (too soon?)’ will certainly accelerate the dissolution of this ‘federation’ of gangster States – at least on the west side of Russia. If ever Russia felt that it’s legitimacy as a top 20, much less top 3, international superpower was at risk (and declining) This is It. Though, I don’t believe that a full-on successful Coup is possible, further disorder and strife will certainly undermine this society’s ambitions of shedding (and thumbing their nose at the West) their post-Soviet western-flavoured attempt at a pseudo-Capitalist, somewhat de-centralized, kind-of-democracy. Alexander The Great must be turning-over-in-his-grave at the incompetent tending his civilization.
HA. BBC said it best Today:
“…before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”….“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we’re seeing how… the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia….”
Excellent writeup. Shame there’s no upvote anymore.
But maybe Zombie country was always preferred? Can’t be NATO. Can dominate Sea of Azov and Black Sea. Russia probably doesn’t care whether they can culturally-assimilate these people or provide reasonable services or opportunity. Take their grain. Monopolize their land. Run military equipment and destabilizing operations through to antagonize each of the NATO/EU neighbours. Not even Client state or vassal province as Belarus – kind of a Russian door-mat/ truck stop. Well without Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson – the Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria options are harder. If Ukraine can cut the Melitopol land bridge this year, that would be It.
The bigger question is, IF he wins, what happens next? What kind of Russia will emerge from this?
And also, how are the RVC and FRL reacting to this? Haven’t heard from them since Belgorod.
Kind of obvious that if he wins Russia turns in to an insular power that is determined to keep its own people in check. They won’t do anything outside of their borders and the rest of the world won’t attack them as Russia would fall back on their nukes to defend themselves.
I don’t know Prigozhin intentions but on surface, he attacks Shoigu, not Putin. Maybe it just his tactic but army loyal to Putin and he will be arrest when Putin have a public address.
That was quick, Brian! Both the article and Wagner capturing the city, if it’s true. I’m following this, too. Way too late at night but I am. There’s a video circulating of Prigozhin supposedly enteringa captured Rostov-on-Don base. Whether it’s true, who knows.
I think you’re right about fear. There might be folks inside Russia who see Wagner as a liberating force.
But, question: why does it seem that Prigozhin suddenly thinks the Ukraine war was started over lies? He’s a mercenary. Is someone paying him, then? It likely isn’t the U.S. government, since we have too many leaks going on right now for that to remain hidden.
He “suddenly” thinks this message, that bad guys in MOD lied to Putin to start the war – and the war was never justified – is the right spin for the moment. It rejects the entire war, but doesn’t blame Putin for it, it blames Shoigu. He thinks this will resonate with Russian troops who want it to stop.
Yeah, that’s fair. We had intelligence in the U.S. lie to other intelligence in the U.S. in order to invade Iraq in 2003, so it could also happen in Russia with Ukraine. But whether that’s the case, we don’t know, right? Shoigu could’ve lied to Putin.
My question is, does Prigozhin really want to stop that war or does he want ethnic cleansing in Ukraine? If he wants to stop the war, then it’d mean that A) he’s turned over a new leaf or B) his entire career has been a very long ruse (which, while possible, is unlikely).
“It rejects the entire war, but doesn’t blame Putin for it, it blames Shoigu.”
In Russia you never blame the Tsar. You appeal to the Tsar to intervene and undo the mistakes of the Tsar’s foolish advisers. This is a cultural thing.
But is it really some sort of sudden realization or switch; or is it something he knew all along, and it’s just convenient for him to reveal now?
I’d bet good money he knew the war was started on lies and pretenses. What changed is that the MoD threw his troops in to Bakhmut and used them as fodder while barely supporting them.
He probably saw too many people die and cared because by the standard of Russian generals he seems to actually care for his troops.
Caring for his troops made him angry about how the MoD executed Bakhmut and the war in general. So he started pointing this out and as we all know the most dangerous thing you can do is speak the truth.
MoD wanted to get his troops to ally with army and probably disperse in to regular army so that they can be controlled. Troops didn’t sign on with the army.
Once he was wanted by the MoD/FSB he knows that he is as good as dead. This is Russia and he knows how Russia works. So he has a warrant out for his arrest and has his army. The only way for him and most of Wagner to survive is to pull off a coup.
The troops following him know that it is win or die. There is no middle ground in Russia when you are in this position. On top of that his troops are trained, seasoned volunteers. Most of the army troops are conscripts (not even counting mobiks). Going to have a tough time beating him.