Avi Loeb is looking for objects that have crashed into the Earth which based upon their speed and angle indicate they originated from outside the solar system. We have been unsuccessfully using SETI to detect communications from alien technological civilizations. However, we know that humanity has over 2 billion tons of garage every year and tens of billions of tons of emissions. We have just started into space and we have a lot of space debris. Humanity has tens of billions of tons of air and water pollution and emissions. A large space faring technological civilization would also have lots of garbage. They might also send out billions of probes. They could send them out like dandelion seeds.
The bigger and more advanced the civilization then the more junk and debris they will create.
Avi Loeb estimates the total quantity of interstellar objects similar to those that have already been detected, including the interstellar object of unknown origin ‘Oumuamua and the interstellar meteors CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) and CNEOS 2017-03-09 (IM2).
This estimate applies both in the case of ‘Oumuamua being of natural origin, and ‘Oumuamua being artificial space debris that is not targeted towards a particular location in space.
However, the inferred abundance of probes is distinctly different in case of ‘Oumuamua-like objects being targeted towards particular regions of the galaxy, specifically habitable zones containing planets. ‘Oumuamua was detected at a distance of ∼ 0.2 AU from Earth, and it passed through the habitable zone of our solar system . The estimated total number of ‘Oumuamua-like objects would then fall to 19 billion.
The interstellar meteor IM1 had an estimated diameter of ∼ 0.45 meters and velocity of 60 km s-1, but it was detectable when it entered and burned up within the atmosphere of the Earth. The estimated detection rate for interstellar meteors similar to CNEOS is at least ∼ 0.1 every year , resulting in a local density estimate of i ∼ one million per cubic AU or 10^22 per cubic parsec. They estimate 7.59 × 10^34 IM1-like objects bound by the thin disk of the Milky Way. However, if objects with the properties of IM1 were targeted towards habitable zones containing planets, they estimate 7.59 × 10^18 such objects. IM2 had a similar inferred number density to IM1 and a velocity of 40 km s-1 relative to the Local Standard of Rest. They estimate 2.78 × 10^34 IM2-like objects, and our estimate would be decreased to 2.78 × 10^18 if such objects were targeted towards habitable zones.
The abundance of ISOs depends on their size and can be calibrated through future surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile.1 Data from the James Webb Space Telescope may identify the nature and 3D trajectory of more ’Oumuamua-like or other interstellar objects crossing through or trapped within the solar system.
The Galileo Project was established in 2021 as a scientific search for potential astro-archaeological artifacts from ETCs, including anomalous interstellar objects that may be revealed by the Webb telescope of Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The Galileo Project will also search for Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) within the atmosphere of the Earth. As objects of interstellar origin are discovered by the Galileo Project, number density estimates can be improved based on detection rates. If extraterrestrial equipment is discovered in a survey of space, they can estimate the total quantity of such objects conditional on whether they are defunct space debris or functional probes.
Arxiv – The Inferred Abundance of Interstellar Objects of Technological Origin
The local detection rate of interstellar objects can allow for estimations of the total number of similar objects bound by the Milky Way thin disk. If interstellar objects of artificial origin are discovered, the estimated total number of objects can be lower by a factor of about 1016 if they target the habitable zone around the Sun. We propose a model for calculating the quantity of natural or artificial interstellar objects of interest based on the object’s velocity and observed density. We then apply the model to the case of chemically propelled rockets from extraterrestrial civilizations. Finally, we apply the model to three previously discovered interstellar objects — the object ‘Oumuamua of unknown origin and the first interstellar meteors CNEOS 2014-01-08 and CNEOS 2017-03-09.
Arxiv – Interstellar Meteors are Outliers in Material Strength
The first interstellar meteor larger than dust was detected by US government sensors in 2014, identified as an interstellar object candidate in 2019, and confirmed by the Department of Defense in 2022. Here, we describe an additional interstellar object candidate in the CNEOS fireball catalog, and compare the implied material strength of the two objects, referred to here as IM1 and IM2, respectively. IM1 and IM2 are ranked 1 and 3 in terms of material strength out of all 273 fireballs in the CNEOS catalog. Fitting a log-normal distribution to material strengths of objects in the CNEOS catalog, IM1 and IM2 are outliers at the levels of 3.5σ and 2.6σ, respectively. The random sampling and Gaussian probabilities, respectively, of picking two objects with such high material strength from the CNEOS catalog, are ∼10−4 and ∼10−6. If IM2 is confirmed, this implies that interstellar meteors come from a population with material strength characteristically higher than meteors originating from within the solar system. Additionally, we find that if the two objects are representative of a background population on random trajectories, their combined detections imply that ∼40% of all refractory elements are locked in meter-scale interstellar objects. Such a high abundance seemingly defies a planetary system origin.
On the Possibility of an Artificial Origin for `Oumuamua
The first large interstellar object discovered near Earth, `Oumuamua, showed half a dozen anomalies relative to comets or asteroids in the Solar system. All natural-origin interpretations of the Oumuamua anomalies contemplated objects of a type never-seen-before, such as: a porous cloud of dust particles, a tidal disruption fragment or exotic icebergs made of pure hydrogen or pure nitrogen. Each of these natural-origin models has major quantitative shortcomings, and so the possibility of an artificial origin for `Oumuamua must be considered. The Galileo Project aims to collect new data that will identify the nature of `Oumuamua-like objects in the coming years.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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