Avi Loeb discusses his expectation that unmanned alien space probes would vastly outnumber manned alien spaceships. This is certainly the case for the human space program where we have sent out about one hundred manned missions but have sent tens of thousands of unmanned missions over seventy years.
In an interview, Avi explained that it is the nature of space and space exploration that any technological civilization would send out a lot of technological hardware and less biological life. Space and the distances of travel for space make it difficult to send biology.
Avi and his team recently reported on the pidces of the IM1 Meteor that crashed into the Earth in 2014.
Avi Loeb is looking for objects that have crashed into the Earth which based upon their speed and angle indicate they originated from outside the solar system. We have been unsuccessfully using SETI to detect communications from alien technological civilizations. However, we know that humanity has over 2 billion tons of garage every year and tens of billions of tons of emissions. We have just started into space and we have a lot of space debris. Humanity has tens of billions of tons of air and water pollution and emissions. A large space faring technological civilization would also have lots of garbage. They might also send out billions of probes. They could send them out like dandelion seeds.
He has papers which calculates the estimated number of pieces that would come from a large object like a Dyson sphere that covers a significant part of a solar system. It would be trillions and trillions.
However, the inferred abundance of probes is distinctly different in case of ‘Oumuamua-like objects being targeted towards particular regions of the galaxy, specifically habitable zones containing planets. ‘Oumuamua was detected at a distance of ∼ 0.2 AU from Earth, and it passed through the habitable zone of our solar system . The estimated total number of ‘Oumuamua-like objects would then fall to 19 billion.
The interstellar meteor IM1 had an estimated diameter of ∼ 0.45 meters and velocity of 60 km s-1, but it was detectable when it entered and burned up within the atmosphere of the Earth. The estimated detection rate for interstellar meteors similar to CNEOS is at least ∼ 0.1 every year , resulting in a local density estimate of i ∼ one million per cubic AU or 10^22 per cubic parsec. They estimate 7.59 × 10^34 IM1-like objects bound by the thin disk of the Milky Way. However, if objects with the properties of IM1 were targeted towards habitable zones containing planets, they estimate 7.59 × 10^18 such objects. IM2 had a similar inferred number density to IM1 and a velocity of 40 km s-1 relative to the Local Standard of Rest. They estimate 2.78 × 10^34 IM2-like objects, and our estimate would be decreased to 2.78 × 10^18 if such objects were targeted towards habitable zones.
The abundance of ISOs depends on their size and can be calibrated through future surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile. Data from the James Webb Space Telescope may identify the nature and 3D trajectory of more ’Oumuamua-like or other interstellar objects crossing through or trapped within the solar system.
Arxiv – The Inferred Abundance of Interstellar Objects of Technological Origin
The local detection rate of interstellar objects can allow for estimations of the total number of similar objects bound by the Milky Way thin disk. If interstellar objects of artificial origin are discovered, the estimated total number of objects can be lower by a factor of about 10^16 if they target the habitable zone around the Sun. We propose a model for calculating the quantity of natural or artificial interstellar objects of interest based on the object’s velocity and observed density. We then apply the model to the case of chemically propelled rockets from extraterrestrial civilizations. Finally, we apply the model to three previously discovered interstellar objects — the object ‘Oumuamua of unknown origin and the first interstellar meteors CNEOS 2014-01-08 and CNEOS 2017-03-09.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Make an antenna look like a seam of ore?
Firstly, it was melted interstellar rock. It wasn’t aliens.
Secondly, an alien civilization would have had millions of years of high tech R&D to blur the boundary between organic and inorganic intelligence so the distinction between manned and unmanned probes could be rather meaningless.
Yah. They wouldn’t be sending lumps of rock that are similar to natural meteors. It would be something completely different. The obvious conclusion is these meteors are natural occurrences.
The Voyager probes will stop operating and become inert junk. Pluto Express will stop operating and become inert junk. In tens of thousand years of years they will pass through the first solar system. The plan was not to send a lump of rock, but the probes have a limited life and become lumps of rock.
I don’t think the idea is so much that anybody intentionally sent them as that advanced interstellar civilizations might well cast off a lot of space junk that might be distinctly different from naturally occurring stuff.
The meteorites are still being studied so you’re jumping the gun. Though Avi carrying on about them like he already knows they came from an Interstellar Meteor is premature too. However they’ve done the right thing – they went and looked. They’ve gathered control samples and they’re comparing them in detail. They’ve already found some with non-solar abundances, so that’s an interesting result at the very least.