Top Down Analysis Where Global Wind Power Is Like Doubling Atmospheric CO2

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In 2011, Nextbigfuture covered a peer reviewed paper that discussed the maximum wind power that could be taken before it acted like doubling atmospheric CO2.

Basic circulation model indicates that increasing global wind power by 18-34 times from 1 Terawatt today will be like doubling atmospheric CO2. This would be counter to the stated goals of reducing CO2 from energy using solar and wind. There is a trillion tons of excess CO2 in the atmosphere since the industrial age started. Each part per million of atmospheric CO2 is 7.82 gigatonnes of CO 2. The current CO2 readin g is 417. There are 3.2 trillion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere. Doubling atmospheric CO2 would be 6.4 trillion tons of CO2.

Thanks to reader, Brett Bellmore, for reminding me about this research paper.

First, they outline the processes associated with wind power generation and extraction with a simple power transfer hierarchy based on the assumption that available wind power will not geographically vary with increased extraction for an estimate of 68 TW. Second, we set up a simple momentum balance model to estimate maximum extractability which we then apply to reanalysis climate data, yielding an estimate of 21 TW. Third, we perform general circulation model simulations in which we extract different amounts of momentum from the atmospheric boundary layer to obtain a maximum estimate of how much power can be extracted, yielding 18–34 TW. These three methods consistently yield maximum estimates in the range of 18–68 TW and are notably less than recent estimates that claim abundant wind power availability. Furthermore, we show with the general circulation model simulations that some climatic effects at maximum wind power extraction are similar in magnitude to those associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. They try to understand fundamental limits to renewable energy resources, as well as the impacts of their utilization, it is imperative to use a “top-down” thermodynamic Earth system perspective, rather than the more common “bottom-up” engineering approach.

Earth Systems Dynamics Journal – Estimating maximum global land surface wind power extractability and associated climatic consequences

10 thoughts on “Top Down Analysis Where Global Wind Power Is Like Doubling Atmospheric CO2”

  1. There are a few reasons to be cautious about the assumptions made in the research article:

    The estimates of maximum extractable wind power are based on theoretical calculations and models rather than real-world data. The authors acknowledge there is uncertainty in their estimates.
    The authors make the major assumption that available wind power will not geographically vary with increased extraction. This may not hold true in reality.
    The general circulation model used to estimate effects of wind power extraction has limitations in fully capturing atmospheric dynamics.
    The article is 12 years old at this point. Technology and modeling has improved since then which could affect the conclusions.
    Other studies using different methodologies have estimated greater potential for wind power generation. There is still debate around the maximum extractable wind power.
    The article focuses only on land-based wind power, not offshore wind which has large potential.

    Here are some examples of other peer-reviewed studies that have reached different conclusions about the potential and limits of wind power generation:

    P.A. Storck et al. (2020). Potential and limits of wind energy – A global perspective. Energy Reports.
    This study used more detailed models and data analysis to estimate potential wind capacity in different regions. They estimated potential generation capacity in 2050 of 34,000 TWh/year, much higher than the estimates in the original article.
    M. Hoogwijk et al. (2004). Exploration of regional and global cost-supply curves of wind energy up to 2100. International Journal of Global Energy Issues.
    This study projected up to 255 EJ/year of wind generation potential globally by 2050. Significantly higher than the 68 TW maximum estimate from the original article.
    S. Marvel et al. (2013). Limits to wind power availability over Europe: Exploring the influence of weather types on wind power generation. Environmental Research Letters.
    This regional study of Europe also found higher technical potential for wind generation by modeling actual wind farm performance under different weather conditions.
    M. Jacobson & C. Archer (2012). Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
    Used models to show usable wind power may be significantly underestimated when factoring in technological advances in turbine height, control methods, etc.
    So in summary, many peer-reviewed studies using updated data sources, detailed wind farm operational models, and improved climate models have found greater wind power potential than estimated by the initial article. This suggests its assumptions and methods likely lead to underestimates of the technical potential.

    • The paper being referenced is over 12 years old? Their conclusions are now obsolete and invalid. Everything has changed and progressed forward substantially since. This is like a medical article stating the benefits of bleeding and leeches.

    • So, I was able to find the M. Hoogwijk study.

      12 year old studies? This one gets it’s derivation of the maximum available wind power globally from a calculation done in 1971! Then restricts itself to calculating how much of that you could extract as a practical matter. It never goes back to calculate how that extraction might alter the weather.

      I found the M. Jacobson study.

      It leads with “The saturation wind power potential (SWPP) is the maximum wind power that can be extracted upon increasing the number of wind turbines over a large geographic region, independent of societal, environmental, climatic, or economic considerations.” Hardly refutes a claim that extracting the power would alter climate!

      I couldn’t find the other studies, but they sure look like the sort of analysis the article I reminded Brian of warns of: Take the wind for granted, and just calculate how much you could extract as a practical matter assuming you’re not going to change it.

  2. Well I guess the withdrawal of government backed loans and subsequent crash of wind power came at a good time.

    Might I propose building more nuclear power?

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