After about ten days of urban combat against an enemy that had more than 15 years to prepare its defenses, Israel has lost fewer soldiers than it did in the final act of the 2006 Second Lebanon War. This is as reported by the Times of Israel and other sources.
Even more importantly, the IDF seemingly has so far done what it wants, when it wants. Hamas can shoot off RPGs before rushing back into tunnels, but it has not shown itself capable of doing anything that would keep the IDF from reaching exactly where it wants to go.
IDF soldiers are able to calmly record videos of themselves dedicating the destruction of Hamas tunnels to slain relatives.
There are even reports of IDF assessments that Hamas’s will to fight is plummeting under relentless Israeli pressure.
Such assessments could be hyperbole, but there have been no Hamas surprises since Israel moved in. The terror group appears to have been set back on its heels, struggling to react as the IDF retains the initiative.
At this stage in the war and in the ground phase, the tactical and operational situation seem as good as Israel could have expected.
If Israel Defense Forces (IDF) can continue a steady military advance averaging a few hundred meters per day then it will about one month before all of Gaza City is under complete control. There would still need to be control of the southern part of Gaza.
#Gaza map update:#Israel has now begun to make gradual advances into Gaza City from the coast.#Palestinian citizens have started to use the humanitarian evacuation corridor established by the #IDF. The route is only available for limited time periods. pic.twitter.com/eaWSe1Q2y9
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) November 6, 2023
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Why do you assume that Israel is moving ahead few hundred meters a day? This is dumb linear.
Right now Israel is taking Hamas headquarters near the beach. After that, the terror organizations may collapse very quickly.
I am saying that worst case it takes a month based on a few hundred meters a day. I agree it can go faster, but there is the need to control and totally eliminate an area with all of its tunnels.
Totally agree. Ceasefire calls are clearly meant to preserve Hamas and to give them a chance to survive being destroyed. If Hamas wants to release their hostages then they can do so at any point in time.
This report, taken in the larger context of ‘what a sovereign needs to do to WIN a war’, shows exactly why the international calls for Israel to agree to a ‘cease-fire’ are both premature and misguided. The purpose of war, especially a retaliatory one as this is between Israel and Hamas, the purpose of war is to WIN the war. Win, not by messing the hair of the defender, but by defeating him entire. Defeating to the point where she sues for peace, accepting the charter of defeat. Not armistice, but defeat. The government is tossed out, the victor continues to slay those irregulars who insist on fighting following the surrender accords. Eventually, peace reigns.
It is a serious mistake to think that a ceasefire could hasten this process. It would not: giving time to the defender to patch up his armies, to retrench and re-arm, to reconnoiter and plan the strategy for uptaking the war when the ceasefire expires, is EXACTLY what would extend the Hamas battle, would increase casualties, would further add to the suffering of the ‘bystanders’ in Gaza. Shortest term, the civilians could get much-needed temporary relief. Longer term, they would further be predated by the collateral fighting that a re-energized cease-fire only delays.
In all fairness, the current trend to fault Israel for having been rather flat-footed in the early days of the war notwithstanding, in all fairness Israel has been preparing its Defense Forces for decades for such an existential threatening Arab invasion and multi-front war. Her commanders’ strategy of dividing-and-conquering is historically well supported and apparently laudable. Tactically, her forebearance in NOT hitting hospitals, schools, places of domestic cover and Hamas hostage holding, is also remarkable. Were the footing reversed, with only the initial Hamas massacre as guidance, it would be no suprise if Hamas continued and expanded its rampage, given the chance. This cannot be allowed to happen.
So… onward and forward Israel. You are being harshly criticized — now — for your amazingly rapid, comprehensive and unflinching destruction of missile launch sites, their hosting tunnels, and the buildings coöpted to protect the cowardly Hamas fighters. In time though, Israel’s cold determination, her relentless pursuit of her tormentors, will be remembered in the History of War as a pivotal change in Mideast geopolitical reality.
JUST AS the 1973 Arab Israeli war with pivotal. In recasting the entire theater of bellicose nations into a more stable, peace-oriented fabric. Israel’s capture of the entire Sinai, and some years later returning it to Egypt IN EXCHANGE for a lasting, durable peace … was just as pivotal. Legendary. Brilliant.
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
So, civilian casualties should not be considered, as the purpose is to win a war. I see. Russia agrees with you.
Ukraine is not using it’s civilians as human shields, Hamas is. Put the blame where it goes.
Ukraine and Israel target combatants.
Russia and Hamas target civilians.
Can you really not see any difference? Sheesh.
Hamas has been playing these game with “civilians” forever. Multiple independent polls over the years have shown a clear majority of Palestinians support Hamas. It’s not as if Hamas is some tiny unpopular minority that rolled up last year and took over. “Innocent” Palestinian kids are destined to grow up and hate Jews just as their parents do. Some of them will grow up and join Hamas and kill more Israeli children The cycle needs to end one way or the other.
What exactly did Hamas and its supporters think was going to happen by murdering, raping, kidnaping Israeli citizens? Were they thinking the world would rush to their aid? Well, aside from dopey college kids in the US that is.
Well now the chicken are coming home to roost. “We love death as much as the Jews love life” If that’s true, then Hamas will enjoy what’s coming. Israeli needs to stay resolute despite the virtue signaling moral outrage from the Left, and those around the world who hate Jews on principle.
Sorting out a workable future moving forward after this phase is over will be much harder than clearing out Gaza from a logistics standpoint.
“We love death as much as the Jews love life”
I heard that line from that guy too.
That is the true tragedy of the situation. A guy sits safely in Qatar and writes speeches, and all these kids say “Thats a good idea!” and then go throw their lives into the grinder of a vastly superior military.
Hamas has now had 16 years to indoctrinate their kids, the question is if getting bitch slapped by the IDF will really break that idea, or if it will just make it stronger.
So pushing a little old lady in front of a moving bus and pushing her out of the way are exactly the same because in both cases it’s assault, RIGHT? Do. Not. Breed.
There is also the problem that you are talking about countries that entered in war with Israel. The war ended, there were still those countries.
Gaza is effectively a sort of Gulag or Concentration Camp. Aoartheid style, no, not WW2 style where we could basically call extermination camps instead of concentration.
What I mean is that the oppressed population will ALWAYS rise against the opressor.
Yes, Hamas practices terrorism and must be destroyed. Nothing justifies the kidnappings and decapitations, etc. But root cause analysis is different of justification for terrorism.
Let’s say Hamas is destroyed. Will Israel open Gaza? Include the people as Israel citizens?
If not, do you expect generations of Palestineans to keep living in the same conditions and not do anything again?
Are you aware that palestinean CHRISTIANS, in Gaza, see Israel as invader and opressor?
Your arguments are basically all ‘straw men’. “So the casualties should not be considered?” Not at all, Rogério. Commonly called ‘collateral damages’ (civilian deaths and injuries), not just by Geneva conventions, but by the historically cited precepts of War, unless militarily significant, civilian casualties ought to be avoided, not entrained or enhanced.
So far, only one side has actively gone to nefarious ends to endanger, … nay, slay civilians. Slay, torture, rape, terrorize. Which party might that have been, Rogério? Which?
________________________________________
Let’s see…
>> “There is also the problem that you are talking about countries that entered in war with Israel. The war ended, there were still those countries.”
What about that is a problem?
Gaza is not a country, never has been, and God willing, never will be. It is part of a divided Palestine. A Palestine which again is not working to be a country very much. It is more of a vassel-of-convenience for the United Nations, that in the Mideast would have precious little to crow about as having a purpose or mandate. Oh, the Mideast has the UNRWA, UNAMI, UNDOF, UNIFIL, UNMHA, UNSCO, UNSCOL, UNTSO, and a host of both NGO and governmental organizations that have capitalized on the zero-sum-game aspect of Israel-in-Arabia as a call to arms for their own croissant munching bands of pointless functionaries.
>> Gaza is effectively a sort of Gulag or Concentration Camp. Apartheid style, no, not WW2 style where we could basically call extermination camps instead of concentration.
GAZA was ejected from Israel after decades of trying to coexist with it, because of the endless procession of suicide bombers that’s infiltrate Israel, blow up themselves and busses, and generally create mayhem every 6 to 12 months. As if on a calendar schedule. There’s a saying, Rogério “good fences make good neighbors”.
Israel tried, and tried, and tried yet again to come up with a SOVEREIGNTY solution to the Palestinian coexistence problem. Would Yasser Arafat ever agree? Nah… Didn’t happen really. Lot of fancy parties and video-friendly handshakes. No lasting agreements, no lasting divisions between Israel and her neighbors. Palestinians included.
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>> “What I mean is that the oppressed population will ALWAYS rise against the oppressor.”
That may be so! But if so, then the oppressed population of Gazan Palestine ought to be looking inward at the oppression caused unto her people by the animals that fluff their paramilitary feathers and claim sovereign leadership over them. Israel sends — for free — potable water. She sends — for free — natural gas and bottled gas. She nearly completely underwrites the telecom and Internet infrastructure. That’s one helluva oppressive oppressor, Rogerio.
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>> Yes, Hamas practices terrorism and must be destroyed. Nothing justifies the kidnappings and decapitations, etc. But root cause analysis is different of justification for terrorism.
WELL THEN WE AGREE. I’m sticking to my originally penned comment, above. It stands. Its logic stands and so far has yet to be significantly challenged. (One caveat: tho’ the logic is sound and defensible, Israel is incurring a HUGE cost for her military ascendence. Economically, life is going to be rough for Israelis in the near future.)
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>> Let’s say Hamas is destroyed. Will Israel open Gaza? Include the people as Israel citizens?
Hamas is destroyed? Outstanding! Overdue! Don’t let the door slap you in the âhrse on the way out!
Will Israel open Gaza as another state of Israel? I don’t think so, not right away. If the peoples of Gaza are given ‘chances to be citizens’ and take them, well … there’s your answer. If they don’t, and wish to hold their anti-civilizational ways, then there ALSO is your answer.
>> If not, do you expect generations of Palestinians to keep living in the same conditions and not do anything again?
I expect that the good, law abiding people of Gaza will in time want to be part of the greater Israeli state. OR, if not, then they’ll want to be sovereign citizens of their own internationally recognized state. Being mere vassels of Iran, or Syria, or the Shia, or whatever bunch of warlords who wish to use them as pawns, well … I’m pretty sure they don’t want that.
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>> Are you aware that Palestinian CHRISTIANS, in Gaza, see Israel as invader and oppressor?
All seventy seven of them? Ah, I see. Actually, I don’t see. Nice straw-man there.
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
GoatGuy,
usually, you are quite (actually very) good and thorough in your analysis, but I think you are severely missing one key point.
-suicide bombers’ psychology moves Hamas and Suicide bombers DO CARE TO WIN. THEY WANT THE OTHER SIDE TO LOSE.
-they planned the attack for months/years and waited until Netanyahu was very weak (from a political standpoint). They knew that the reaction would have been a full display of strength.
-Do you think they did not expect this reaction? And I do not mean it in some sort of evil genius way that strategized fancy countermeasures, believing that they will win. They simply knew that the escalation was going to be unprecedented.
-You can eradicate Hamas, but it will change nothing for the people in Gaza. Do you think that after the bombs and the military occupation, people in Gaza will side with the IDF because it eradicated Hamas?
-What will change (significantly, I think) is how the rest of the world will see Israel (and I do not mean the usual anti-semitic thugs that threaten the temples or the Jewish communities). I mean, in terms of interactions between nations, Egypt and especially China have no interest in destabilizing the area near the Suez Canal. Europe turned a blind eye to certain aspects of the Israeli defense policies because of the heavy legacy of the holocaust, but if Israel goes full Warsaw-ghetto repression (yes, I know), things will change, and the EU is Israel’s biggest trade partner.
I am not a very sentimental person. In general, I consider the lives lost something that is just lost ahead of an unavoidable expiration date, so I am not the kind of person to say things like “think about the children…”
For me, it is more something on the line: “Consider that you are playing your enemy’s game. Your enemy set the board and won the first move.” And the first move was not to gain sympathy or support. Hamas is a bunch of rabid dogs. They gained no admiration except from other rabid dogs. But they already won the first move, because the world did forget about Gaza for more than a decade and now is watching what Israel will do, and the world, big parts of the world at least, does not like what they see. And continuing to march in Gaza will only result in Hamas (or the next terrorist organization that will rise after hamas) winning more moves.
Respectfully, someone that might not always agree with you, but is a big fan.
AAA
GG is completely right, as always.
“You can eradicate Hamas, but it will change nothing for the people in Gaza. Do you think that after the bombs and the military occupation, people in Gaza will side with the IDF because it eradicated Hamas?”
It doesn’t matter, at all. Doesn’t even enter the average Israeli consideration. There is no end game here, only managing a cancer- created by Dar Al-Harb driven Jihad and historic irredentism. What the Israelis care about is not to be attacked, where they can actually mitigate that risk. Gaza and WB are the areas that can happen.
“-What will change (significantly, I think) is how the rest of the world will see Israel (and I do not mean the usual anti-semitic thugs that threaten the temples or the Jewish communities).”
Feckless politicians and outright liars that motivate for traditional Jew hate have always existed and will ebb and flow. As a counter point- thus far no Abraham accord member has broken with Israel. Behind the scenes they fully support it. Egypt and Jordan are using the opportunity internally to track and infiltrate the MB connected protesters in their country while putting up feigned outrage. The actual dynamic of the middle east is completely different and the new polarity or in subjective terms: Axis of evil is metastasizing (Iran-Russia-China-NK). The wild card is Turkey and we will see how that plays out.
Hi JonK,
you said:
“It doesn’t matter, at all. Doesn’t even enter the average Israeli consideration. There is no end game here, only managing a cancer- created by Dar Al-Harb driven Jihad and historic irredentism. What the Israelis care about is not to be attacked, where they can actually mitigate that risk. Gaza and WB are the areas that can happen.”
Israel previous strategy of sealing off gaza to weaken Hamas to be safe is what led to empowering Hamas and making Israel less safe.
regarding your second comment, you are missing the point (or maybe I did not address it correctly); the rest of the world (not the axis of terror in particular) does not particularly care about Palestine NOR Israel. Most of the people care about the cost of the fuel and groceries.
asymmetric wars are always more expensive for the more industrialized side, and the projected costs inflate:
-how muchthe 9/11 attacks cost? a few million dollars? and forced the U.S. into a trillion-dollar war and still have hundreds of millions of dollars in projected costs every year (think about all the man-hours lost due to travel checkpoints in airports; it became so expensive that airports now have medical imaging tech to speed up the process).
-how much did Hamas spend in the last terror attack? How much is going to cost Israel? How much is it costing in terms of man-hours of all the young adults spending years in military service? How much is going to cost to make the people feel really safe? How much these costs are going to increase before they impact Israel products making them less competitive and making Israel poorer?
The good thing is that terrorists are brainwashed idiots (if they were smart they would not end up being terrorists), but once in a while, you get a smart one, and that is expensive to manage with brute force. What if Hamas did a test run and embedded sleeper agents six months ago? What if they gave them a bunch of cash to rent a flat in Tel Aviv or to find a job as a janitor in a water desalination plant and a couple of bags of rat poison? The problem in terms of cost management is that it has not even TO BE REAL. The problem with terrorism is that it is enough to THINK IT MIGHT BE REAL and from that very moment you have to invest money. Playing hardball is what Hamas wants. The bloodier the answer, the more people WILL EXPECT that a father who lost his kids, a guy who lost his girlfriend (or lets be not geneder bias), a bride who lest her husband in gaza will be ready to do the unthinkable. I am not a particularly forgiving person, people should not forget, nor necessarily forgive (my grandfather was prisoner in Bergen-Belsen and never forgave the germans, but was in favor of the European union and was deeply convinced that it was the best way to avoid waging war again within Europe), but I simply think that what Israel is doing in Gaza is not rational and it is counterproductive and will affect Israel for the years to come.