The 80-year-old and over age group accounted for 13.5% of the elderly population in 2020. The over 80 was about 32 million. 10.4 million people died in 2022 in China.
The number of babies continues to drop from 9.56 million in 2022 to about 8 million this year. China’s overall population could start dropping by 15 million people each year as early as 2033.
According to projections, the number of people aged 60 and above will exceed 300 million in 2024, 500 million in 2048, and reach a peak of 524 million in 2052, and the number of people aged 65 and above is expected to exceed 300 million in 2033, exceed 400 million in 2050, and reach a peak of 436 million in 2057. Census 2020, the number of urban elderly exceeded that of rural areas. The number of rural elderly is still growing, and the proportion of the elderly population is 8% points higher than that of urban areas.
It will take about 15 years for China median age to get up to Japan’s 48.
There are about 230 million people in their 50s. This is about 23 million at each year. There are about 170 million people in the 7-17 age group. This means a drop of 5-6 million people of working age each year. There 60 million people in the 0-4. The addition to working age population will drop to the annual birthrate with an 18 year lag. The people born about 50 years before those entering working age are the ones aging out of the workforce.
China is not the country with the highest degree of population ageing, nor is it the country with the fastest aging population. The Republic of Korea’s population is aging faster than China’s. According to data released by Statistics Korea, the proportion of the Republic of Korea’s population aged 65 and over was 17.5% in 2022. It is estimated that by 2044, the proportion of the elderly will reach 36.7%, exceeding Japan (36.5%) to become the country with the highest ageing population in the world.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Meh. the traditional: a few average kids to an average family to an average education to an average job to an unfulfilling retirement, with an unnecessary pension taking up a huge amount of tax payer loot, to an extended dysfunctional and unproductive decline taking up a larger part of tax payer loot; has to change – i’m surprised that we made it this far.
Demographics is destiny. They sure aren’t going to get enough immigrants to turn the tide.