I made 197 correct resolved public predictions in a row on Metaculus. Everything that I predicted and resolved over the last 78 days was correct. A prediction could have been made over the last year or longer but the answer was determined so that the prediction became true or false.
This compares to the Metaculus company account making a collective 13 incorrect predictions out of 291 predictions made that resolved over the same time period.
In 2023, I am ranking 25th out of a likely 5000+ Metaculus forecasters for Baseline accuracy. This is likely a top 0.5% placing.
Since Jan 1 2023, I made 471 correct predictions out of 480 predictions made. I made 9 incorrect predictions or 2% wrong and 98% right.
My prediction errors over 376 days were fewer than the Metaculus Group made over 78 days. This was with about 61% more predictions made.
The Metaculus Group made 44 incorrect predictions out of 929 predictions made since Jan 2, 2023.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Congratulations! The future can never be predicted 100%, but you do a better job than the others. That’s impressive.
I know. Like the The predictions that Tesla will Reach full autonomy, SpaceX will return from Mars And nuclear power Will dominate new power growth by now.