How Will SpaceX Bring the Cost to Space Down to $10 per Kilogram from Over $1000 per Kilogram?

PayloadSpace estimates the costs of SpaceX Starship now and in a few years. Their estimate is a $90 million build cost now and a future build cost of $20 million. SpaceX would likely charge customers twice those amounts. Those are estimates of internal costs.

In a cost per kilogram of payload basis, a single use Super Heavy Starship can bring the cost down nearly ten times to about $150 per kilogram. However, high reuse of the Super Heavy Starship will bring the cost down to $10-20 per kilogram.

The upper stage Starship will have a dry mass of about 100 to 130 tons. The SpaceX Super Heavy Booster will have a dry mass of about 160-200 tons. The tanks will weigh 80 metric tons (180,000 lb), and the interstage will weigh 20 metric tons (44,000 lb). Let us assume Starship dry mass is 120 tons and the booster is 180 tons. This is a changing figure because SpaceX will make a version 3 that is 20% longer. SpaceX is making changes all the time.

The steel used as the main construction material is about $5 per kilogram. The 300 tons for the Super Heavy Booster and the Starship would be $1.5 million for the steel.

The main cost is the Raptor engines and the labor for each Starship. The other main cost are the avionics, electronics and heat shield tiles.

The Raptor engines are at about $1 million each now. This is $39 million of the $90 million cost estimate.

SpaceX has a factory for Raptor engines that can be ramped to a production capacity of 4000 engines per year. SpaceX is making about three hundred Merlin engines (150 engines for expended second stage of Falcon 9 and some new Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavies). SpaceX is making a few hundred Raptor engines for the Starship testing and operations in 2024.

Once SpaceX is able to successfully fly and recover the upper and lower stage of Starship, then they will be on track to have reusable costs that are 20% of less than the build cost.

The SpaceX Falcon 9 has a build cost of about $30 million but SpaceX sells rides for about $60 million. The booster stage of the Falcon 9 is about 70% of the cost and those have been reused 10-20 times. The most reused Falcon 9 boosters are up to about 20 reuses. SpaceX is doing some maintenance to get certified for 40 reuses and the goal of 100 reuses is likely. The payload fairings are recovered and reused. Those were about 10% of the cost and it seems like 20-100 reuses are possible for the fairings. The SpaceX Falcon 9 costs cannot get below about 30-40% of the build costs because of the expended second stage.

The SpaceX Starship should follow the Falcon 9 path to 20 to 100 reuses or more. This will be for 100% of the vehicles.

The first flight of SpaceX Starship would be for 100% of the cost. The initial reuse costs after a fully successful flights would be 10% of the costs. There would be more inspection, safety and maintenance checks. This would then head to about $300000 to $2 million for fuel and a 3 million or so for operations and long term maintenance. Certain fuel and operation costs would not reduce based upon the initial cost of the Starship. They would decline based upon improving efficiency with higher launch cadence. Fuel costs would reach a minimum until SpaceX started producing their own fuel using solar power and other systems.

A SpaceX Super Heavy Starship that cost $90 million to build in 2024 that is successfully flown five times over 2024-2025 would have about $50 million in costs over five flights. The average per flight costs would be $28 million per flight. The original build cost would be $18 million cost per five flights. This would be $90 per kilogram for 200 ton payloads.

A SpaceX Super Heavy Starship that cost $50 million to build in 2025 that is successfully flown ten times over 2025-2026 would have about $70 million in costs over ten flights. The average per flight costs would be about $12 million per flight. The original build cost would be $5 million cost per ten flights. This would be $25 per kilogram for 200 ton payloads.

SpaceX mass producing engines for $250,000 each would need about $10 million for 39 or 40 engines for the Booster and Starship. Mass production of a hundred to four hundred Starships per year and twenty to forty boosters could have the fixed production costs spread over 40 times the production volume.

A SpaceX Super Heavy Starship that cost $20 million to build in 2027 that is successfully flown 100 times over 2027-2028 would have about $200 million in costs over ten flights. The average per flight costs would be about $2.2 million per flight. The original build cost would be $0.2 million cost per one hundred flights. IF the reusable mode had 220 tons of capacity then the payload cost would be $10 per kilogram.

SpaceX plans to make the Starship 20% longer and improve the engines. The payload capacity could increase to 200-250 tons in reusable mode. An expended Future Starship would have a payload of about 300 tons. The build cost of a future Starship would be about $2-5 million. If the Future Starship cost $2 million and the fuel and operations cost $2 million then the payload cost even in expended mode would be $15 per kilogram.

The main factor in reducing future payload costs would be reducing fuel, operations and maintenance costs.