The Tesla 4680 production ramp has taken about two years longer than Tesla first planned. Most of the analysis has been based upon monthly or quarterly percentage increases in production. This has been while the technical problems were being solved. The 4680 technical problems should be completely solved by mid-2024. The second Texas line was started a few months ago. There are four 4680 production lines in the first phase of the Tesla 4680 Texas production. There will be another four lines added in Texas by the end of 2024. If it takes 6 months to ramp a 4680 battery line that is a normal production ramp then here is what it could look like for total multiple lines of production.
Abundant made in the US 4680 batteries will mean all Tesla cars and trucks will get the $7500 tax credit. There will be 10% domestic production credits for Megapacks sold in the US. The US 4680 vehicles will get $3600 of battery credit if they have an 80 kWh pack.
The 4680 packs will cost about $6000 by the end of 2024 versus about $12000 for some of the battery packs at the end of 2023.
The 4680s for all US Tesla vehicles could take out $5000 to $13000 in costs per vehicle via tax credits and cost savings.
Tesla will go from about 1% of global battery production to about 10-20% by the end of 2024.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Tesla has really settled in Texas. I do wonder if they will abandon the Fremont factory when they revamp the model S and X to use steel.
Sure the NV battery plant is nearer to Fremont than Texas but the logistics of EV semis makes it possible to spread out your manufacturing and not incur a large cost.
IMO they have a lot of problems with that battery. Otherwise we would see much faster ramp. They have the money, manufacturing expertise. Cyber truck and semi were delayed so much, because they don’t have the batteries. They know the best, what is the issue.
EV’s are dead in the water for many reasons. Elon needs to keep pushing the vision for a truly environmentally-friendly vehicle by building Teslas with hydrogen fuel cells.
Hydrogen is a strong greenhouse gas (it prevents methane from being oxidized), incredibly leaky, inefficient and a trojan horse for natural gas and coal gasification, including underground coal gasification of stranded coal.
The only thing holding back main stream adoption in the BEV market cycle is the battery itself.
The marketing dept. at Tesla and others knows the skinny on main stream of consumers. I’d like to know what their focus groups and other marketing research is showing.
My thinking and day dreaming wants a battery that has 5 times more energy in a package that is smaller and weighs less than todays packs.1/2 the size would be good. Better safety against fires and the cost of the pack is flexible. 5-10K.
That’s what I think it will take for people to climb on-board EV’s as the future of transportation. The film camera and VCR’s took awhile to go away. ICE cars a bit longer.
“The marketing dept. at Tesla and others knows the skinny on main stream of consumers.”
I don’t think Tesla has a marketing department.
The EV fad lasted as long as pet rocks and hula hoops. Today dealers have a 114 day supply on their lots. Half the Buick dealers refused to sell EV’s and let GM buy their franchise. Tesla tapped the virtue signalers, early adopters, and innumerate rubes. The stock had a nice run but the party is over. EV’s are expensive and not practical. Sell.
Your forecast is very optimistic. Especially considering that tesla track record in terms of delivery times, production volumes and delivery prices has not been particularly good recently (cybertruck and tesla semi for example). You also forgot to mention that you own tesla stocks.
Once the first line is up and running it is easy to estimate the time to get the other lines up and running as they have a good understanding of what to do. The timelines are reasonable.