Top 1% Metaculus Public Forecaster

Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough.

In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for Baseline accuracy.

In 2023, I am ranking 25th out of a likely 5000+ Metaculus forecasters for Baseline accuracy. This is likely a top 0.5% placing.

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions.

In 2023, I made 451 correct predictions out of 460 predictions made. I made 9 incorrect predictions or 2% wrong and 98% right.

Over three years, my track record on Metaculus is as follows.

In 2023, the Metaculus site had 847 correct predictions out of 897 predictions made. They made 50 incorrect predictions in 2023. There were right 94.4% of the time. The employees of the company make predictions using all of the information that thousands of forecasters are providing. They have a transparent view of what the crowd of forecasters are predicting and they can look at what the forecasters with the best track records are doing.

I am substantially outforecasting the corporate Metaculus prediction track record.