SpaceX Starship Reached Orbit. Why Does It Matter?

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SpaceX had the huge success on March 14, 2024 with the successful launch of Starship to orbit. The Super Heavy booster returned most of the way but lost control before a soft landing attempt. The Starship was lost after about 49 minutes when it tried to re-enter but burned up with some lost heat shield.

It is clear that over 5-9 more launches in 2024, that SpaceX will be mastering the launch and landing of Super Heavy and Starship. I think SpaceX will be able to return the booster for a soft water landing on the next attempt and 80% chance of returning the Starship for soft water landing.

If SpaceX is able to match the flightplan then there will be no delays for investigations. If they plan to land in the water and they land in the water then there will be no investigations. No investigations will means the next launch attempt would be in a month instead of 2-3 month where investigations are needed.

The safe return to the launch tower will likely happen on the 3rd or 4th attempt this year.

SpaceX currently only has authorization for 5 more launch attempts this year. Brett Bellmore asked the FAA:
SpaceX applied to modify its existing vehicle operator license for the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle from its Cameron County, TX site. After completing an evaluation of all applicable Vehicle Operator License requirements, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a modification to the Vehicle Operator License for SpaceX launches of the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle Program in Cameron County, TX on March 13, 2024. The modification authorizes the third flight of Starship/Super Heavy.

So, when we say their current permissions only allow 6 flights a year, that’s not quite right. They actually have to go crawling to the FAA to beg for permission for each individual test flight.

SpaceX will likely get the Starship launching full sized Gen 2 and Gen 3 Starlink satellites in 2025. A full Starship with Gen 2 Starlink will be about one hundred – two ton satellites or fifty four ton satellites. Those satellites will be 7 meters by 7 meters when folded and dispensed from the pez dispenser doors. They will unfold to be 7 meters by 60 meters. The area of the satellites put side by side would be six times the area of the 75X110 meter international space station.

The space station weighs 420 tons, so two launches of the SpaceX Starship will be the same mass into space.

Space activity will increase by 10-100 times in 2025 and then 100-1000 times in 2026.

7 thoughts on “SpaceX Starship Reached Orbit. Why Does It Matter?”

  1. Didn’t he sell that oil rig he was planning on launching from? He needs to buy another one and spend at least some money on it to hedge.

  2. As noted above the launch license authorizes one launch at a time, but there doesn’t seem to be any particular limit on the number of launches, as long as the previous launch’s post-event paperwork (various reports) is completed and the measures and limits required by the environmental assessments specified in the launch license are respected.

    It is in the environmental assessments that the number of flights are limited, and that number for the Indian Ocean, as requested by SpaceX, is 10, not five.

    Specifically the Finding Of No Significant Impact – Record of Decision for the Indian Ocean issued just before IFT 3 essentially finds no significant environmental impact from up to five “overpressure events“ (Starship bellyflops with no attempt at soft landing), AND up to five soft landings or debris impacts (which appears to be a soft landing gone not so soft), all within a year. So until next March.

    SpaceX used up one of those launches with IFT 3, so they still have 9 more chances to intercept the Indian Ocean with a Starship in the next 11.5 months.

    I haven’t found the EA for dropping Super Heavy into the Gulf of Mexico yet, but I would guess it parallels the one for Starship.

  3. FAA will find every way they can to slow walk SpaceX.
    They can’t kill them, because NASA is dependent on them for Artemis, but NASA’s greatest fear is NASA astronauts getting to the moon and being greeted by SpaceX astronauts throwing a welcome party.

    • AC says: FAA will find every way they can to slow walk SpaceX.

      Mayor Pete might want to slow roll Starship but NASA, DoD and the Intel community won’t let him. Probably one of the reasons SpaceX is going to be launching a fleet of black world satellites.

      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Cheers –

  4. ” If they plan to land in the water and they land in the water then there will be no investigations.”

    I think you’re overly optimistic here. There would, rationally, be no investigations. But that assumes the delays are rational. There may be a large component of politics in play; Musk is not on good terms with the current administration.

    • Actually he is on very good terms with the DoD, not only launching but building satellites for them. Traditionally, the DoD has had the clout to override other bureaucratic agencies, now I expect there’s more effort involved in getting their way.

      • I tend to think the DoD and NASA’s reliance on SpaceX are the only reason his Starship development program hasn’t been totally shut down.

        If you want an example of the sort of irrational bureaucratic assault he’s been under, look at the way the FCC, back in ’22, cheated Starlink out of a rural internet subsidy they’d legally qualified for, on the basis of their not yet having reached a milestone they weren’t obligated to reach until 2025.

        The bureaucracy have been doing all sorts of things like that to Musk’s companies, since Biden took office.

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