SpaceX Starship is stacked and ready for its third orbital test launch. The liquid oxygen release systems are fixed from the last launch.
I, Brian Wang, believe that this launch will be successful and there will be launches every month starting from this month. The pace of launches will then increase to every week or more frequent in 2025.
The launch pace will rapidly increase once SpaceX successfully launches and returns to the launch tower. This flight plan is to fly to the Indian Ocean and hover before dropping into the water.
If there is no flight damage then normal flights will fully recover undamaged Starship and Super Heavy boosters.
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Their current permissions only allow 6 flights a year from Boca Chica. Definitely not monthly for 2024, unless they get that amended first.
I actually just got the email from the FAA about this. The relevant line is,
“SpaceX applied to modify its existing vehicle operator license for the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle from its Cameron County, TX site. After completing an evaluation of all applicable Vehicle Operator License requirements, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a modification to the Vehicle Operator License for SpaceX launches of the Starship/Super Heavy Launch Vehicle Program in Cameron County, TX on March 13, 2024. The modification authorizes the third flight of Starship/Super Heavy.”
So, when we say their current permissions only allow 6 flights a year, that’s not quite right. They actually have to go crawling to the FAA to beg for permission for each individual test flight.
It’s absolutely crazy.
Key milestones:
1. Successful Starship in LEO
2. Successful booster flyback
3. Successful booster capture
4. Successful Starship reentry and landing
With the next launch SpaceX can hit 1 and 2 and possibly simulate 3 and 4.