Tracking the Predicted Failure of the Copenhagen Climate Talks

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicted the failure of the Copenhagen climate talks that are scheduled for December 2009.

The Wall Street Journal reports that UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband has said “UN.-led talks in Copenhagen in December to reach a global deal on cutting greenhouse gas emissions to avert climate change are in danger of collapse”

BBC News has lengthier coverage.

Prospects for reaching a new global deal on climate change are “in the balance”, according to UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband.

There is a “real chance” that December’s UN summit in Copenhagen will not reach agreement, he said.

This is the strongest admission yet from a senior UK minister that a deal is not necessarily in the bag; and with only three months left until the summit, environmental organisations agreed that the pace and intensity of diplomacy needed to be stepped up.

“[David] Miliband’s acknowledgement that the EU must harness political will right now, in order to make a sustainable future a possibility, is very welcome,” said David Norman, head of campaigns at WWF UK.

“Copenhagen is fast approaching, and high level discussions over the next few weeks will determine whether we can achieve a decent global deal in December or if we will shackle ourselves to a future of runaway climate change.”