Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium “civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years” and “the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable”. Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar
1. World Uranium production
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan
All three bets should be handily won by me this year and I should be winning by larger and larger margins for future years of the bets.
Reviewing The Nuclear Generation Bet Series
Dittmar Brian Midpoint 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 2011 2550 2650 2600 2012 2550 2700 2625 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 2014 2250 2800 2525 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
Actual generation was 2559 TWH – lower because of some problems in France
Ukraine and China have already passed their 2009 nuclear generation and still have their December generation to add. The USA is generating at 95% in December.
There will be 11-14 new nuclear reactors that will be completed and starting generation in 2011. There will also be about 13 reactors completed in 2012. If three of the reactors do not complete in 2011 they will shift to 2012. So 27 nuclear reactors completing over 2011 and 2012 (about 21 GWe which would add about 160 TWH per year).
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 2011 18000 t or more 17,999.9 tons or less 18000 tons
Kazakstan is on track for 17800 tons of uranium.
Industries and New Technologies Vice Minister Berik Kamaliyev predicted October 12, 2010 at a cabinet session that Kazakhstan will mine 17,800 tonnes of uranium in 2010, according to newskaz.ru.
Uranium predictions Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint 2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons 2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons 2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons 2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
(Cameco) Canada’s 2010 uranium production is up about 17% over 2009.
This will mean 3700 more tons of production in Kazakstan and 1000 more tons of production in Canada. Australian uranium production will be lower by close to 2000 tons.
World uranium production looks on track for 54,000-56,000 tons in 2010.
Cameco in Canada is targeting doubling uranium production by 2018
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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