Oak Ridge presents its path to exascale computing (17 pages, Oct 2010) Their 20 petaflop machine starts getting built this year and will be done in 2012. There is a path to exaflop machines in about 2018.
Goals to Overcome the Barriers to Exascale
* Power consumption goal: Factor of 5 better than industry Business as Usual (BAU)
* Memory and storage bandwidth goal: Factor of 4 above industry BAU
* Reliability and resiliency goal: Factor of 10 better than industry BAU
* Scalability of systems software goal: Factor of 100 above industry BAU
* Programming models and environments goal: Factor of 10 productivity over today’s mixed models while increasing parallelism in applications by a factor of 1,000