IEA world oil March 15, 2011 report
World oil supply rose to an all‐time high of 89 mb/d in February, up 0.2 mb/d from January. Non‐OPEC oil supply rose 0.3 mb/d to 53.2 mb/d on re‐instated Alaskan output. 2010 non‐OPEC estimates are left unchanged at 52.8 mb/d, while the 2011 forecast is raised by 0.1 mb/d, to 53.6 mb/d, on stronger‐than‐expected Canadian output.
Global oil output then fell in March, 2011 by 700,000 barrels per day because of the fighting in Libya.
Global oil output fell 0.7 mb/d to 88.3 mb/d in March on reduced Libyan crude supply. Non-OPEC production rose 0.2 mb/d to 53.3 mb/d, even as unrest and strikes in Yemen, Oman, Gabon and Ivory Coast shuts in an average 0.1 mb/d of crude in March and April. Non-OPEC 2010 supply is left at 52.8 mb/d, while stronger Canadian production lifts the outlook by 0.1 mb/d to 53.7 mb/d for 2011.
The EIA also seems to be confirming a new peak in world oil production at 88.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2011 Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains. World crude oil and liquid fuels consumption grew by an estimated 2.3 million bbl/d in 2010 to a record-high level of 86.7 million bbl/d.
Here is a projection from 2009 at theoildrum which talked about a peak in 2008 and projected a drop of 4-5 million barrels per day in 2011 to 80-81 million barrels per day. The actual level of the same EIA numbers is higher in 2010 at 86.1 million barrels per day. 6 million barrels per day higher than projected and 500,000 barrels per day more than the “peak” in 2008.
Crude oil and lease condensates have held near the 2008 level.
EIA is reporting that January, 2011 had 75.282 million barrels per day of crude oil and lease condensate ( a new peak).
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