Grist has an article that makes the claim that solar PV will become the cheapest option to generate electricity by about 2018 in the sunniest places in the world.
Cumulative installed PV capacity globally was 40 gigawatts (GW) at the end of last year. Three doublings mean this has to grow by a factor of eight, to 320 GW, to achieve the necessary halving of cost (to 6 cents per kwh). From 2005 to 2010, PV capacity installed annually grew by an average of 49 percent per year. Even if this slows down to 25 percent per year in the near future, we will reach 320 GW in 2018.
320 GW would be about 500 TWh. China recently announced a target of 50 GW for solar by 2020. I think China will add 25-40% of any world solar installation. So for the Grist estimate to be right there would have to a further acceleration of Chinese solar power.
Targets disclosed early 2011 target 2015 target 2020 Hydropower 250 260 (865 TWh) 390-430 GW (1300-1430 TWh) Wind 90 100 (190 TWh) 200-250 GW (380-470TWh) Solar 5 10 (15 TWh) 50 GW (70 TWH) Bio-energy 13 13 Geothermal N/A 0.1 Tidal wave N/A 0.01-0.02 Nuclear 40 40 (320 TWh) 65 GW (520 TWh)
The cost of solar power and wind needs to include the extra energy storage or the fact that they have to be paired with natural gas or some other load following energy generation.
New California natural gas plant has stated purpose of grid stabilizing renewable power
The CPV Sentinel 800 MW natural gas plant in Riverside Country, California, is funded by GE Energy Financial Services (GE), Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) and Diamond Generating Corporation (DGC). The $900 million project is being built by Gemma Power Systems California and is set to go into commercial operation by the summer of 2013.
Powered by eight GE Aero LMS100 turbine-generators that are specially designed to reach full load within in 10 minutes, the CPV Sentinel will act as a partner for the increasing number of solar and wind projects in California.
Natural gas generation will be used to guarantee grid stability in California as a group of companies break ground on a new power plant designed to complement renewable generation.
The radio news coverage about the new natural gas plant touts the fact that is stabilizing the California grid for the higher amount of renewable power.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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