“China has basically said goodbye to 8% GDP growth in spirit if not in statistics and will have to embrace slower growth, with the average annual growth rate in the next seven years to 2020 perhaps falling to the vicinity of 6%,” wrote Goldman Sachs GS +2.45% China strategist Jiming Ha in a June 10 research report.
Goldman Sachs calculates that a fall in investment to more normal levels – say 40% of GDP – could bring China’s GDP growth down to an earthly 4.5% by 2020, averaging 5.7% over the next seven years. That would be well below many other projections – the International Monetary Fund sees growth at around 8.5% out to 2018 for example.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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