Impact of AI and Mobile Internet compared to Growth of China and India 2013-2025

In 2013, McKinsey lists 12 disruptive technologies that would have multi-trillion economic impact from 2013 to 2025. Nextbigfuture compared this to expected GDP growth of nations. It is now five years down the line and we can see more about what the GDP growth will likely be and how those technologies are doing.

There are the IMF nominal GDP estimates for countries in 2013 compared to projections to 2023. This can be extrapolated to 2025.

Country   GDP 2013    GDP 2018  GDPe 2023   GDPe 2025   Growth 2013-2025
China          9.6 trillion    14.1 T   21.6 T       24.9 T      15.3 T
USA           16.7 trillion    20.4 T   24.5 T       25.9 T       9.2 T
India          1.9 trillion     2.8 T    4.7 T        5.6 T       3.7 T
Germany        3.7 trillion     4.2 T    5.3 T        5.7 T       2.0 T
Japan          5.2 trillion     5.2 T    6.0 T        6.4 T       1.4 T
South Korea    1.3 trillion     1.7 T    2.2 T        2.4 T       1.1 T
Indonesia      0.9 trillion     1.1 T    1.6 T        1.8 T       0.9 T
Brazil         2.5 trillion     2.1 T    2.7 T        2.9 T       0.4 T

Brazil and Japan have been flat or lost GDP when adjusted for currency over the last five years. Although the IMF has again projected growth for Brazil and Japan, both countries have been going from positive to negative as currency fluctuates.

This was the range of GDP growth estimated by Nextbigfuture in 2013 :
1. China $10-20 trillion
2. United States 4-7 trillion
3. India $2-4 trillion
4. Indonesia $1.5-2.5 trillion
5. Brazil $1-2 trillion
6. Japan $1-2 trillion

The McKinsey Global Institute identified 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. Technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and are familiar.

2013 Estimates

1. Mobile Internet $3.7-10.5 trillion
2. Automation of knowledge work $5.2-6.7 trillion
3. Internet of things $2.7-6.2 trillion
4. Cloud $1.7-6.2 trillion
5. Advanced robotics $1.7-4.5 trillion
6. Autonomous or near-autonomous cars $0.2-1.9 trillion
7. Next-generation genomics $0.7-1.6 trillion

A review in 2018 is that most of these are heading to the high end of the estimated impact. The overall GDP impact is less positive since there is quite a lot impact of technology is taking existing business from other technology. Cloud computing is transformation of data centers and IT.

McKinsey’s 2013 missed the blockchain and fintech wave. Blockchain and Fintech will likely be several trillion in impact by 2025.

There is overlap and over counting with the various technologies.

A recent estimate is the global internet of things will be $6.5 trillion in 2024.

Huawei says the digital economy is currently about $12 trillion and AI will help increase it to $23 trillion in 2025.

Mobile internet measured by ecommerce should be about $7 trillion in 2024 and $9-10 trillion 2025.