US Tariffs will hit China’s GDP but China is stimulating its economy

UBS analyst expects the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to take 0.5 to 0.7% off of China’s GDP growth. China will use easing and infrastructure projects to add back 0.3 to 0.5% of GDP growth.

Eugene Qian, chairman of the UBS China Strategy Board, discussed the impact of the new tariff on China’s economy, how they will react to the new tariffs, opening up their markets and their China strategy.

The Financial sector grows at 1.5 to 2 times the GDP of a country.

260 thoughts on “US Tariffs will hit China’s GDP but China is stimulating its economy”

  1. If I were to guess, there are constant negotiations taking place between PRC, and USA on trade. Within a year, a breakthrough on a comprehensive deal will be announced, and their will either be no tariffs between the two, or there will be a schedule of tariffs agreed to by both parties, that will expire over time. That would also be the perfect time to announce a gold standard, for international trade, but I doubt it will happen.

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  2. The US economy can be self sufficient but it is too expensive to manufacture in the US This is why the US is not growing as faast as . China just needs jet engines

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  3. Tariffs are not working. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion. And this was after the first round of tariffs was imposed. It will be interesting to see how much bigger China’s surplus will grow after new round of 200 billion will be implemented very soon. My guess is that we will see new records. China is producing everything it need for itself, I mean EVERYTHING even at this stage as a still developing country. From socks, pens to advanced tech like smartphones, laptops and even space station. Soon they will close the gap on semicondustor industry and need for oil should also be lower because the trend of electrification of car industry in their county. US is big, yes but it will never be as big as China and will always need to import a lot of stuff. 320 million population in my opinion is not enough to be fully self sufficient. China has population of 4 x USA + Japan. For them full independence as they develop it quite easy task. US manufacturing sector in much weaker and US doesn’t have a choice but buy a lot of stuff from China. US consumers will pay more and their wallets become thinner, only US government will benefit on receiving additional tax money. And knowing US administration mentality they will waste all those additional billions of dollas on increasing army budget. US could solve the deficit problem by investing a lot more on R&D and science, invent and develop a lot more cool hi-tech gadgets and tech that world will love and buy.

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  4. If I were to guess there are constant negotiations taking place between PRC and USA on trade. Within a year a breakthrough on a comprehensive deal will be announced and their will either be no tariffs between the two or there will be a schedule of tariffs agreed to by both parties that will expire over time.That would also be the perfect time to announce a gold standard for international trade but I doubt it will happen.

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  5. The US economy can be self sufficient but it is too expensive to manufacture in the US This is why the US is not growing as faast as . China just needs jet engines

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  6. Tariffs are not working. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion. And this was after the first round of tariffs was imposed.It will be interesting to see how much bigger China’s surplus will grow after new round of 200 billion will be implemented very soon. My guess is that we will see new records. China is producing everything it need for itself I mean EVERYTHING even at this stage as a still developing country. From socks pens to advanced tech like smartphones laptops and even space station. Soon they will close the gap on semicondustor industry and need for oil should also be lower because the trend of electrification of car industry in their county. US is big yes but it will never be as big as China and will always need to import a lot of stuff.320 million population in my opinion is not enough to be fully self sufficient.China has population of 4 x USA + Japan. For them full independence as they develop it quite easy task.US manufacturing sector in much weaker and US doesn’t have a choice but buy a lot of stuff from China.US consumers will pay more and their wallets become thinner only US government will benefit on receiving additional tax money. And knowing US administration mentality they will waste all those additional billions of dollas on increasing army budget.US could solve the deficit problem by investing a lot more on R&D and science invent and develop a lot more cool hi-tech gadgets and tech that world will love and buy.

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  7. China is dumping incredible quantities of money into it’s economy. Right now, they overproduce in every basic manufacturing category. Every year they produce 50 times the annual us consumption of cement. Basic metals production is through the roof. China is dumping the equivalent of the Obama Stimulus EVERY 28 DAYS. China will hit the wall. That is why Xi has decided to stay on. He believes China needs a strong man to handle the coming crash.

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  8. China is dumping incredible quantities of money into it’s economy. Right now they overproduce in every basic manufacturing category. Every year they produce 50 times the annual us consumption of cement. Basic metals production is through the roof. China is dumping the equivalent of the Obama Stimulus EVERY 28 DAYS.China will hit the wall. That is why Xi has decided to stay on. He believes China needs a strong man to handle the coming crash.

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  9. Just wondering have you ever taken a economics course? Do you understand what a market is? Any overproduction in cement or basic metals would cause a price drop in the commodity market Global Cement prices are up 4.5% since 2013 And you can look up the global prices for all the base metals like tin, copper, iron etc… all of them do not indicate what you are claiming.

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  10. No it can’t, the US has a massive population that is simply unfit for working in modern manufacturing. See my post below

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  11. The vast majority of modern manufacturing is done by machines Manufacturing moved to China not because of dumb labor, but because you could hire high IQ people for dirt cheap. If your machine broke down, no problem some Chinese guy (with basically a masters in EE) would pull out the circuit boards and using various probes and other instrumentation determine what would board would need to be replaced. And he would work annually for a fraction of the salary of a equivalent in the US. Most people don’t realize that the Toyota factory churning out cars has only half of its staff on the manufacturing floor, the other half is engineers and supply chain guys, supervisors etc…. the engineers at these facilities are responsible for fixing daily technical issues and working with R & D. Nor do they realize how dumb the average Mexican is, manufacturing in the US is a nightmare. At our facility our only requirement for a assembler was a high school degree, us citizenship, passing a drug and criminal background check and then passing a simple assembly test, looking at a assembly engineering drawing and then putting the components together. The vast majority of Americans were not able to complete the assembly test, while for our facility in China they completed it in half the time and 100% of the applicants passed. A assembler position in the US would average maybe 30 interviews a day and get 29 rejections. Not to mention all the HR related issues of assemblers walking off shift, excessive lateness, stealing from work,slow work speed and poor attitudes. And for those saying that the position wasn’t paying enough, it paid $12 an hour starting in a area with an extremely low cost of living. Property taxes for a 2000 square foot house would be $800-$1000 a year There’s a reason why all the tech CEO’s and high level management employees are convinced they can’t replace China and its not because they want to make more profits. At the end of the day, high end and middli

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  12. That is what Mexico is for … and now they are cheaper to use than China … and they are closer. The only downside? President Two Scoops is antagonizing them. What a maroon.

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  13. Just wondering have you ever taken a economics course? Do you understand what a market is? Any overproduction in cement or basic metals would cause a price drop in the commodity market Global Cement prices are up 4.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} since 2013And you can look up the global prices for all the base metals like tin copper iron etc… all of them do not indicate what you are claiming.

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  14. The vast majority of modern manufacturing is done by machinesManufacturing moved to China not because of dumb labor but because you could hire high IQ people for dirt cheap. If your machine broke down no problem some Chinese guy (with basically a masters in EE) would pull out the circuit boards and using various probes and other instrumentation determine what would board would need to be replaced. And he would work annually for a fraction of the salary of a equivalent in the US.Most people don’t realize that the Toyota factory churning out cars has only half of its staff on the manufacturing floor the other half is engineers and supply chain guys supervisors etc…. the engineers at these facilities are responsible for fixing daily technical issues and working with R & D.Nor do they realize how dumb the average Mexican is manufacturing in the US is a nightmare. At our facility our only requirement for a assembler was a high school degree us citizenship passing a drug and criminal background check and then passing a simple assembly test looking at a assembly engineering drawing and then putting the components together. The vast majority of Americans were not able to complete the assembly test while for our facility in China they completed it in half the time and 100{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the applicants passed. A assembler position in the US would average maybe 30 interviews a day and get 29 rejections. Not to mention all the HR related issues of assemblers walking off shift excessive lateness stealing from workslow work speed and poor attitudes. And for those saying that the position wasn’t paying enough it paid $12 an hour starting in a area with an extremely low cost of living. Property taxes for a 2000 square foot house would be $800-$1000 a yearThere’s a reason why all the tech CEO’s and high level management employees are convinced they can’t replace China and its not because th

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  15. That is what Mexico is for … and now they are cheaper to use than China … and they are closer. The only downside? President Two Scoops is antagonizing them. What a maroon.

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  16. Oh, yes, blowing up credit bubbles. It will work, because “This Time Is Different.” (Narrator’s Voice: “It wasn’t.”)

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  17. Oh yes blowing up credit bubbles. It will work because This Time Is Different.””(Narrator’s Voice: “”””It wasn’t.””””)”””

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  18. The average Chinese is also as dumb as rocks. That is what average means. The problem is that no manufacturer wants to pay what it takes to hire smarter people in the US and in Mexico. The smarter Chinese is affordable as least for now. Won’t be like than in the future.

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  19. The average Chinese is also as dumb as rocks. That is what average means. The problem is that no manufacturer wants to pay what it takes to hire smarter people in the US and in Mexico. The smarter Chinese is affordable as least for now. Won’t be like than in the future.

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  20. He’s talking TRADE deficit, not budget deficit. But then again, you think rich people hoard their dollars in Scrooge McDuck money bins, too.

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  21. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion” That’s normal. When the economy booms, so do import/exports. And the tariffs from the first round are still not fully in effect, either.

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  22. That really is your topic – IQ – arguing north or south of average by a couple of points and throwing entire ethnic groups away. Always talking about that. Gosh. I wonder what your genes are – pretty sure I wouldn’t want them in my family even if your sister was hot.

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  23. No they aren’t average IQ by country shows that China averages 105 The US average IQ is 98, but the sample was limited to whites African Americans average around 85, Mexican Americans average around 90 Furthermore while the US is 65% white, most of this 65% are 40+ The younger workforce on the other hand is around 50% white And this is backed up by PISA exam which shows Chinese students in poverty outperforming Europeans in science and math. Yes most of the age 40+ in China are dullards due to lack of education, high poverty and mal nutrition but the young in China are extremely bright. There’s no lack of talented labor in China, I could give the basic assemblers test to the 30 people and get 30 people passing, and in one day be done with staffing. In the US for the exact same product line with the exact same test the vast bulk of Americans simply wouldn’t be able to do it

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  24. He’s talking TRADE deficit not budget deficit.But then again you think rich people hoard their dollars in Scrooge McDuck money bins too.

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  25. China is producing everything it need for itself””Really? Oil”” food”” replacements for its export markets? Nope.”””

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  26. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion””That’s normal. When the economy booms”” so do import/exports. And the tariffs from the first round are still not fully in effect”” either.”””

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  27. That really is your topic – IQ – arguing north or south of average by a couple of points and throwing entire ethnic groups away. Always talking about that. Gosh. I wonder what your genes are – pretty sure I wouldn’t want them in my family even if your sister was hot.

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  28. No they aren’t average IQ by country shows that China averages 105The US average IQ is 98 but the sample was limited to whitesAfrican Americans average around 85 Mexican Americans average around 90Furthermore while the US is 65{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} white most of this 65{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} are 40+The younger workforce on the other hand is around 50{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} white And this is backed up by PISA exam which shows Chinese students in poverty outperforming Europeans in science and math. Yes most of the age 40+ in China are dullards due to lack of education high poverty and mal nutrition but the young in China are extremely bright. There’s no lack of talented labor in China I could give the basic assemblers test to the 30 people and get 30 people passing and in one day be done with staffing. In the US for the exact same product line with the exact same test the vast bulk of Americans simply wouldn’t be able to do it

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  29. …in China it isn’t. Because the SOEs absorb 80{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the financial capital and they are not allowed to go under.

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  30. The will eventually be forced to chose between the SOEs and their currency. The problem with undying SOEs is that they are forever on life support and the life support is always more expensive as the years go by.

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  31. The will eventually be forced to chose between the SOEs and their currency. The problem with undying SOEs is that they are forever on life support and the life support is always more expensive as the years go by.

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  32. Expanding credit for the SOEs doesn’t undermine their currency, which isn’t fully tradeable (and that is the main reason why it has not and will not be a viable reserve alternative currency to the dollar). The SOEs spend domestically. That is their purpose. To increase employment and some targeted strategic investment that are uneconomical. In the end, they just crowd out investment from the purely market oriented part of the economy.

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  33. Expanding credit for the SOEs doesn’t undermine their currency which isn’t fully tradeable (and that is the main reason why it has not and will not be a viable reserve alternative currency to the dollar). The SOEs spend domestically. That is their purpose. To increase employment and some targeted strategic investment that are uneconomical. In the end they just crowd out investment from the purely market oriented part of the economy.

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  34. So no selection bias? The ads in America said $150K salary? That’s what the ads in China said. So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on.

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  35. So no selection bias? The ads in America said $150K salary? That’s what the ads in China said. So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on.

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  36. months ago, I stop the plan to buy US preamplifier , stop buy US eye drops, US fruit, smartphone embedded with US chipset, ….

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  37. Bilateral trade between the two countries contributes little to GDP. For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP, while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse. If their trading fell by 20%—more than most expect—the direct hit to their GDP would be 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. China’s global current-account surplus has shrunk at an unprecedented rate, falling from 10% of GDP in 2007 to a mere 1.4% today. In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world. Meanwhile, there has been little change in the US trade balance with the world, indicating that America’s massive deficit is not China’s fault at all. The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. Kishore Mabubhani said it best: “The West is making a big strategic mistake if it perceives China to be the threat to liberal ideology. In so doing, it is only looking for a scapegoat to avoid looking at its own self-inflicted injuries. The key question that Western minds need to ask is a simple one: how was the relative over-performance of Western societies in the second half of the 20th century replaced by under-performance in the 21st century? The answer will not come from looking at China. It will come from looking in the mirror”.

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  38. Bilateral trade between the two countries contributes little to GDP. For China U.S. trade contributes some 2.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to GDP while it is only 1{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for the U.S. in reverse.If their trading fell by 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}—more than most expect—the direct hit to their GDP would be 0.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} and 0.2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} respectively. China’s global current-account surplus has shrunk at an unprecedented rate falling from 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of GDP in 2007 to a mere 1.4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} today. In other words China’s trade is in balance with the world.Meanwhile there has been little change in the US trade balance with the world indicating that America’s massive deficit is not China’s fault at all. The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further.Kishore Mabubhani said it best: The West is making a big strategic mistake if it perceives China to be the threat to liberal ideology. In so doing”” it is only looking for a scapegoat to avoid looking at its own self-inflicted injuries. The key question that Western minds need to ask is a simple one: how was the relative over-performance of Western societies in the second half of the 20th century replaced by under-performance in the 21st century? The answer will not come from looking at China. It will come from looking in the mirror””.”””””””

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  39. Assemblers aren’t making 150k, A assembler takes parts and puts them together The product line is highly specialized equipment, so it makes no sense to fully automate it, most of the components are assembled by hand and for certain steps we use custom engineered jigs The only requirement is a high school diploma, no prior work experience required, no criminal record and passing a drug test. The test merely requires looking at a assembly drawing and then putting the parts in front of you together. While reading the assembly notes If you don’t know what a assembly drawing is google “Assembly drawing exploded view” The position starts at $12 an hour in flyover country which is pretty reasonable compared to other jobs that only require a GED and no prior work experience Offers medical, dental and annual raises with plenty of opportunity to move up in the company. The national average salary for a Production Assembler is $33,029 in United States. Which is what you would be making if you stayed for 5+ years. Finding a black or Hispanic capable of passing these simple requirements and passing the assembly test is merely impossible nevermind being competent, punctual and of good moral character (not stealing from company or starting conflicts with coworkers) . And these two groups are the main groups that go for this position. The same exact product line has the same facility in China has the same positions in China, paying the same wages as other positions in China with no requirements other than a high school degree and no work experience. Yet the applicant quality is much higher. And this applies as well to the white collar professions that support the manufacturing such as the schedulers, quality inspectors, equipment testers and calibrators, engineers, supply chain managers, account managers, sales etc…. the labor quality is simply higher. I suspect the blacks and Hispanics are probably too dumb to get affirmative action too dumb to go to college, so

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  40. Assemblers aren’t making 150k A assembler takes parts and puts them togetherThe product line is highly specialized equipment so it makes no sense to fully automate it most of the components are assembled by hand and for certain steps we use custom engineered jigsThe only requirement is a high school diploma no prior work experience required no criminal record and passing a drug test. The test merely requires looking at a assembly drawing and then putting the parts in front of you together. While reading the assembly notesIf you don’t know what a assembly drawing is google Assembly drawing exploded view””The position starts at $12 an hour in flyover country which is pretty reasonable compared to other jobs that only require a GED and no prior work experience Offers medical”” dental and annual raises with plenty of opportunity to move up in the company. The national average salary for a Production Assembler is $33029 in United States.Which is what you would be making if you stayed for 5+ years.Finding a black or Hispanic capable of passing these simple requirements and passing the assembly test is merely impossible nevermind being competent punctual and of good moral character (not stealing from company or starting conflicts with coworkers) . And these two groups are the main groups that go for this position. The same exact product line has the same facility in China has the same positions in China paying the same wages as other positions in China with no requirements other than a high school degree and no work experience. Yet the applicant quality is much higher.And this applies as well to the white collar professions that support the manufacturing such as the schedulers quality inspectors equipment testers and calibrators engineers supply chain managers account managers sales etc…. the labor quality is simply higher. I suspect the blacks and Hispanics are probably too dumb to get affirmative action too dumb to go”

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  41. This thread has really brought out the fifty-centers and the usual haters. My mostly US stock portfolio is doing fine. Chinese markets are down 20%. Why aren’t the western economies hurting similarly? Because they expect China will eventually make some concessions to playing by the rules, and the situation has been so bad, for so long, with so many afraid to do anything about it, that even a minor improvement would be extremely good news for the markets. I expect Xi is looking for a way to save face. Pretty bad to declare yourself emperor for life and then immediately have it demonstrated you don’t actually have the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming).

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  42. This thread has really brought out the fifty-centers and the usual haters.My mostly US stock portfolio is doing fine. Chinese markets are down 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. Why aren’t the western economies hurting similarly? Because they expect China will eventually make some concessions to playing by the rules and the situation has been so bad for so long with so many afraid to do anything about it that even a minor improvement would be extremely good news for the markets. I expect Xi is looking for a way to save face. Pretty bad to declare yourself emperor for life and then immediately have it demonstrated you don’t actually have the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming).

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  43. In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world. ” Nice try, wu mau. But the issue isn’t what China’s trade is with the world. It is what it is in relation to the US. Stick to the topic. “The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. ” No, it does not. You are confusing budget deficit with trade deficit, which are entirely two different things. Or are you doing so on purpose and hoping you wouldn’t get caught? If so, you just got caught. “while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse” No, it isn’t. “For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP” Fine. Then let us cut China off completely since according to you they don’t need us anyway. See how that goes.

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  44. Yes exactly. Cutting taxes on production while taxing consumption is something the US has needed to do for a long long time now.

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  45. In other words” China’s trade is in balance with the world. “”Nice try”””” wu mau.But the issue isn’t what China’s trade is with the world. It is what it is in relation to the US. Stick to the topic.””””The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities”” namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing”” which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. “”””No”” it does not. You are confusing budget deficit with trade deficit which are entirely two different things. Or are you doing so on purpose and hoping you wouldn’t get caught? If so”” you just got caught.””””while it is only 1{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for the U.S. in reverse””””No”””” it isn’t.””””For China”””” U.S. trade contributes some 2.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to GDP””””Fine. Then let us cut China off completely since according to you they don’t need us anyway. See how that goes.”””””””

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  46. I’m writing an article on the trade war and would value your real-life experience, especially since the article depends heavily on stats (what a concept!). If you can PM me through Vuukle, please do, or just reply to this and we’ll figure out something. Thanks

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  47. This is the US’s third trade attack on China. The previous two lasted a total of 40 years. America lost both. Be careful what you wish for.

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  48. Markets are irrelevant, the Chinese market crashes multiple times every year for seemingly no reason Recall how when China’s market crashed in 2008 yet growth still continued. The markets in the US are controlled by big institutional investors while the markets in China are ruled by speculators and is seen as gambling The average Chinese citizen invests in real estate and savings, very few put money in the markets. >The stock market is where Chinese masses can pretty much do something which seems to have an aura of freedom to it, and it is located within China, and not outside of it. This is probably the reason so many Chinese view their stock market as nothing other than gambling. Since people are so used to having everything managed, they have the impression that in fact companies are managed by the government too, so they see stocks that fluctuate as not exactly the same things as the companies behind them, which are supposed to be managed, therefore not much left to be speculated. Hence, in theory, their stocks are not supposed to fluctuate anyway. But since they do, the Chinese retail ‘investors’ mostly see the fluctuating stocks more as a means of gambling rather than a reasonable investment. >This is in fact the reason Chinese stocks are so volatile. Mentalities do not change quickly, and this mentality of central management in China is not going to change any time soon either. People continue to expect their leaders to be their central managers, for almost everything. If the leaders will desire to give free markets more room to maneuver, it will definitely take many years to get their local investing masses used to it. And this will mean huge volatility, which, to some extent, will actually require some kind of central management once in a while, simply because that is what is expected by the local investors! Of course it sounds absurd to us who have lived all of our lives in capitalism (or some kind of democracy) where things are mostly left to the

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  49. Yes, exactly. Cutting taxes on production while taxing consumption is something the US has needed to do for a long, long time now.

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  50. 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the most profitable valuable corporations on earth are SOEs. Get real

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  51. I’m writing an article on the trade war and would value your real-life experience especially since the article depends heavily on stats (what a concept!).If you can PM me through Vuukle please do or just reply to this and we’ll figure out something.Thanks

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  52. This is the US’s third trade attack on China. The previous two lasted a total of 40 years. America lost both.Be careful what you wish for.

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  53. Markets are irrelevant the Chinese market crashes multiple times every year for seemingly no reason Recall how when China’s market crashed in 2008 yet growth still continued. The markets in the US are controlled by big institutional investors while the markets in China are ruled by speculators and is seen as gamblingThe average Chinese citizen invests in real estate and savings very few put money in the markets. >The stock market is where Chinese masses can pretty much do something which seems to have an aura of freedom to it and it is located within China and not outside of it. This is probably the reason so many Chinese view their stock market as nothing other than gambling. Since people are so used to having everything managed they have the impression that in fact companies are managed by the government too so they see stocks that fluctuate as not exactly the same things as the companies behind them which are supposed to be managed therefore not much left to be speculated. Hence in theory their stocks are not supposed to fluctuate anyway. But since they do the Chinese retail ‘investors’ mostly see the fluctuating stocks more as a means of gambling rather than a reasonable investment.>This is in fact the reason Chinese stocks are so volatile. Mentalities do not change quickly and this mentality of central management in China is not going to change any time soon either. People continue to expect their leaders to be their central managers for almost everything. If the leaders will desire to give free markets more room to maneuver it will definitely take many years to get their local investing masses used to it. And this will mean huge volatility which to some extent will actually require some kind of central management once in a while simply because that is what is expected by the local investors! Of course it sounds absurd to us who have lived all of our lives in capitalism (or some kind of democracy) where things are mostly left to the ‘go

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  54. I wish you luck in finding a black or Hispanic stupid enough to work for a $12/hr job that requires them to figure out things. The first thing they will figure out is that there are much easier ways to make money. There is book smart and then there is real world smart. Now the blacks I know that can read a blueprint (similar) are carpenters plumbers and electricians and making from $35/hr to $75/hr. You may not have notice at least where I live blacks don’t work minimum wage jobs anymore. Those jobs are usually left for undocumented immigrants.

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  55. I wish you luck in finding a black or Hispanic stupid enough to work for a $12/hr job that requires them to figure out things. The first thing they will figure out is that there are much easier ways to make money. There is book smart and then there is real world smart. Now the blacks I know that can read a blueprint (similar) are carpenters, plumbers and electricians and making from $35/hr to $75/hr. You may not have notice, at least where I live, blacks don’t work minimum wage jobs anymore. Those jobs are usually left for undocumented immigrants.

    Reply
  56. I don’t intend to give any specific or identifying information. Nor have I personally worked in China. Unfortunately with the current state of the internet, certain people have the ability to comb over a persons post history and gleam up identifying and potentially life ruining information. Suffice to say some of my postings could be deemed as racist and getting outed on the internet could be ruinous. What I am willing to divulge is that I am a Director level employee that has worked with multiple multinational companies in various capacities, but has been primarily based in the US with a engineering background. Most of the information on China vs US manufacturing, I acquired from periodic meetings with our counterpart facilities, and from personal observations. (By counterpart facilities I mean facilities making the same productline in other countries) We have periodic meetings where we exchange our issues, such as manufacturing issues, employment issues, supplier issues etc… to see if they are relevant to facilities in the US. We also try to find new suppliers and backup suppliers that can supply necessary components and this information gets exchanged with all the counterparts. A lot of components are specialized, so sometimes we need to teach the supplier how to produce it. Any supplier that gets trained on how to produce a component gets shared. I am willing to help with the article but cannot provide any specific stats like exactly how many components are in our assemblies, and what percentage of our components are sourced from what countries etc… or any stats that would/could compromise my anonymity

    Reply
  57. You are attacking strawmen, nobody is specifically looking for a specific race to fill a position. Rather specific races are applying and failing to get a position in large numbers because they don’t have the qualifications for other positions aka a college degree. If the position wasn’t competitive in wages and benefits then people wouldn’t be applying in the first place. The entire point was that in the US many people applied and failed to pass a very basic reasoning test, while in China it was the opposite. Nor am I saying that there aren’t smart black people What I am saying is that the crowd that typically does not have a college degree who does apply for said position tend to be on the left end of the bell curve. And that the left end of the bell curve for blacks and Hispanics are much lower than the left end of the bell curve for the Chinese in china. ———————- Second, the carpenters, plumbers, electricians who make extremely high wages have licenses from trade unions A assembler is UNSKILLED labor, while the trades you listed are SKILLED labor there is a difference These are not positions one can get straight from highschool A electrician and plumber making the big bucks needs to pass numerous written exams, and have to undergo apprenticeships Getting these apprenticeships are extremely difficult since many people apply and many people get rejected I recall in NYC, they had ratio’s like 200 applicants for every 1 apprenticeship position.

    Reply
  58. I don’t intend to give any specific or identifying information. Nor have I personally worked in China. Unfortunately with the current state of the internet certain people have the ability to comb over a persons post history and gleam up identifying and potentially life ruining information. Suffice to say some of my postings could be deemed as racist and getting outed on the internet could be ruinous. What I am willing to divulge is that I am a Director level employee that has worked with multiple multinational companies in various capacities but has been primarily based in the US with a engineering background.Most of the information on China vs US manufacturing I acquired from periodic meetings with our counterpart facilities and from personal observations.(By counterpart facilities I mean facilities making the same productline in other countries)We have periodic meetings where we exchange our issues such as manufacturing issues employment issues supplier issues etc… to see if they are relevant to facilities in the US.We also try to find new suppliers and backup suppliers that can supply necessary components and this information gets exchanged with all the counterparts. A lot of components are specialized so sometimes we need to teach the supplier how to produce it. Any supplier that gets trained on how to produce a component gets shared. I am willing to help with the article but cannot provide any specific stats like exactly how many components are in our assemblies and what percentage of our components are sourced from what countries etc… or any stats that would/could compromise my anonymity

    Reply
  59. You are attacking strawmen nobody is specifically looking for a specific race to fill a position. Rather specific races are applying and failing to get a position in large numbers because they don’t have the qualifications for other positions aka a college degree. If the position wasn’t competitive in wages and benefits then people wouldn’t be applying in the first place. The entire point was that in the US many people applied and failed to pass a very basic reasoning test while in China it was the opposite. Nor am I saying that there aren’t smart black people What I am saying is that the crowd that typically does not have a college degree who does apply for said position tend to be on the left end of the bell curve. And that the left end of the bell curve for blacks and Hispanics are much lower than the left end of the bell curve for the Chinese in china.———————-Second the carpenters plumbers electricians who make extremely high wages have licenses from trade unions A assembler is UNSKILLED labor while the trades you listed are SKILLED labor there is a differenceThese are not positions one can get straight from highschool A electrician and plumber making the big bucks needs to pass numerous written exams and have to undergo apprenticeships Getting these apprenticeships are extremely difficult since many people apply and many people get rejected I recall in NYC they had ratio’s like 200 applicants for every 1 apprenticeship position.

    Reply
  60. Do you have numbers? Can you tell me how many blacks as a percentage who graduated at the top 20% of their HS class applied for the $12/hr job? How many whites? How many Chinese in China? As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. IQ tests are pattern recognition tests. The more you are exposed to abstract patterns the higher your scores. Today’s children score much higher than children 100 years ago. The human races hasn’t evolve that much in two generations. The fact that the Chinese written language is ideograms gives them an advantage in taking IQ tests. BTW, blacks don’t have to be smarter when they can have more children per capita. The blacks I know who are tradesmen have been tradesmen for years now. The point is if you can read and figure out things why would you work for $12/hr. BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    Reply
  61. Do you have numbers? Can you tell me how many blacks as a percentage who graduated at the top 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of their HS class applied for the $12/hr job? How many whites? How many Chinese in China? As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. IQ tests are pattern recognition tests. The more you are exposed to abstract patterns the higher your scores. Today’s children score much higher than children 100 years ago. The human races hasn’t evolve that much in two generations. The fact that the Chinese written language is ideograms gives them an advantage in taking IQ tests. BTW blacks don’t have to be smarter when they can have more children per capita. The blacks I know who are tradesmen have been tradesmen for years now. The point is if you can read and figure out things why would you work for $12/hr. BTW there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    Reply
  62. >As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. All I am saying is that the equivalent position, with the same requirements is present in both countries. With wages corresponding to what similar positions with the same requirements are offering There is no shortage of applicants in both countries, but in the US the younger candidates routinely fail the exam while in China they routinely pass. Therefore it supports my original claim, That the US has many unfit workers in comparison to China Statistically people that don’t have college degrees apply to this job, and statistically blacks and Hispanics are less likely to have college degrees. As a result the bulk of applicants are black and Hispanic. Likewise in China, the people who typically apply for this position are high school grads who failed to score high enough on the Gao Kao (China’s version of the SAT) and thus was not able to gain acceptance into a university ————————————————- As for top % of the HS, it is a meaningless metric since some high schools are located deep In the ghetto where every hallway has a armed guard, multiple incidents of students engaging in gunfights, metal detectors, serious assault cases with kids being hospitalized etc…. and graduating with a perfect GPA is possible merely by showing up while others are like Stuyvesant or Thomas Jefferson HS that require admission exams ————————————————– No IQ tests are not pattern recognition tests, they test various things from logical reasoning abilities, pattern recognition, the ability to manipulate 3d objects, reading comprehension, critical thinking. A subset called the raven matrices are pattern recognition which is only 1 subtest out of the 5 required for the Stanford binet ————————————————– >BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want

    Reply
  63. >As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. All I am saying is that the equivalent position with the same requirements is present in both countries. With wages corresponding to what similar positions with the same requirements are offering There is no shortage of applicants in both countries but in the US the younger candidates routinely fail the exam while in China they routinely pass. Therefore it supports my original claim That the US has many unfit workers in comparison to ChinaStatistically people that don’t have college degrees apply to this job and statistically blacks and Hispanics are less likely to have college degrees. As a result the bulk of applicants are black and Hispanic. Likewise in China the people who typically apply for this position are high school grads who failed to score high enough on the Gao Kao (China’s version of the SAT) and thus was not able to gain acceptance into a university————————————————-As for top {22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the HS it is a meaningless metric since some high schools are located deep In the ghetto where every hallway has a armed guard multiple incidents of students engaging in gunfights metal detectors serious assault cases with kids being hospitalized etc…. and graduating with a perfect GPA is possible merely by showing up while others are like Stuyvesant or Thomas Jefferson HS that require admission exams ————————————————–No IQ tests are not pattern recognition tests they test various things from logical reasoning abilities pattern recognition the ability to manipulate 3d objects reading comprehension critical thinking.A subset called the raven matrices are pattern recognition which is only 1 subtest out of the 5 required for the Stanford binet————————————————–>BTW there is

    Reply
  64. Because the sampling is not random no conclusion can be drawn. The selection bias is that in the US a job as an assembler for $12/hr would draw the bottom rung of the ladder while in China middle of the ladder people would show up. It is not valid to assume that people of the same quality would show up without having proving that true. People without college degrees cover a pretty large range of ability so that doesn’t prove anything. Getting into a college in the US is a lot easier than getting into a college in China. So right there that is a bias. Asians spend a lot more time going to school and then they attend cram school on top of that. Working hard is fine but it doesn’t show natural ability. Reading comprehension requires that a person be able to read. That’s a failure right there since reading isn’t a natural ability. The article on people lining up for jobs need a dateline for me to take it serious.

    Reply
  65. Because the sampling is not random no conclusion can be drawn. The selection bias is that in the US a job as an assembler for $12/hr would draw the bottom rung of the ladder while in China middle of the ladder people would show up. It is not valid to assume that people of the same quality would show up without having proving that true. People without college degrees cover a pretty large range of ability so that doesn’t prove anything. Getting into a college in the US is a lot easier than getting into a college in China. So right there that is a bias. Asians spend a lot more time going to school and then they attend cram school on top of that. Working hard is fine but it doesn’t show natural ability. Reading comprehension requires that a person be able to read. That’s a failure right there since reading isn’t a natural ability. The article on people lining up for jobs need a dateline for me to take it serious.

    Reply
  66. Because the sampling is not random no conclusion can be drawn. The selection bias is that in the US a job as an assembler for $12/hr would draw the bottom rung of the ladder while in China middle of the ladder people would show up. It is not valid to assume that people of the same quality would show up without having proving that true. People without college degrees cover a pretty large range of ability so that doesn’t prove anything. Getting into a college in the US is a lot easier than getting into a college in China. So right there that is a bias. Asians spend a lot more time going to school and then they attend cram school on top of that. Working hard is fine but it doesn’t show natural ability. Reading comprehension requires that a person be able to read. That’s a failure right there since reading isn’t a natural ability. The article on people lining up for jobs need a dateline for me to take it serious.

    Reply
  67. Because the sampling is not random no conclusion can be drawn. The selection bias is that in the US a job as an assembler for $12/hr would draw the bottom rung of the ladder while in China middle of the ladder people would show up. It is not valid to assume that people of the same quality would show up without having proving that true. People without college degrees cover a pretty large range of ability so that doesn’t prove anything. Getting into a college in the US is a lot easier than getting into a college in China. So right there that is a bias. Asians spend a lot more time going to school and then they attend cram school on top of that. Working hard is fine but it doesn’t show natural ability. Reading comprehension requires that a person be able to read. That’s a failure right there since reading isn’t a natural ability. The article on people lining up for jobs need a dateline for me to take it serious.

    Reply
  68. Because the sampling is not random no conclusion can be drawn. The selection bias is that in the US a job as an assembler for $12/hr would draw the bottom rung of the ladder while in China middle of the ladder people would show up. It is not valid to assume that people of the same quality would show up without having proving that true.

    People without college degrees cover a pretty large range of ability so that doesn’t prove anything.

    Getting into a college in the US is a lot easier than getting into a college in China. So right there that is a bias. Asians spend a lot more time going to school and then they attend cram school on top of that. Working hard is fine but it doesn’t show natural ability.

    Reading comprehension requires that a person be able to read. That’s a failure right there since reading isn’t a natural ability.

    The article on people lining up for jobs need a dateline for me to take it serious.

    Reply
  69. >As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. All I am saying is that the equivalent position, with the same requirements is present in both countries. With wages corresponding to what similar positions with the same requirements are offering There is no shortage of applicants in both countries, but in the US the younger candidates routinely fail the exam while in China they routinely pass. Therefore it supports my original claim, That the US has many unfit workers in comparison to China Statistically people that don’t have college degrees apply to this job, and statistically blacks and Hispanics are less likely to have college degrees. As a result the bulk of applicants are black and Hispanic. Likewise in China, the people who typically apply for this position are high school grads who failed to score high enough on the Gao Kao (China’s version of the SAT) and thus was not able to gain acceptance into a university ————————————————- As for top % of the HS, it is a meaningless metric since some high schools are located deep In the ghetto where every hallway has a armed guard, multiple incidents of students engaging in gunfights, metal detectors, serious assault cases with kids being hospitalized etc…. and graduating with a perfect GPA is possible merely by showing up while others are like Stuyvesant or Thomas Jefferson HS that require admission exams ————————————————– No IQ tests are not pattern recognition tests, they test various things from logical reasoning abilities, pattern recognition, the ability to manipulate 3d objects, reading comprehension, critical thinking. A subset called the raven matrices are pattern recognition which is only 1 subtest out of the 5 required for the Stanford binet ————————————————– >BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want

    Reply
  70. >As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. All I am saying is that the equivalent position with the same requirements is present in both countries. With wages corresponding to what similar positions with the same requirements are offering There is no shortage of applicants in both countries but in the US the younger candidates routinely fail the exam while in China they routinely pass. Therefore it supports my original claim That the US has many unfit workers in comparison to ChinaStatistically people that don’t have college degrees apply to this job and statistically blacks and Hispanics are less likely to have college degrees. As a result the bulk of applicants are black and Hispanic. Likewise in China the people who typically apply for this position are high school grads who failed to score high enough on the Gao Kao (China’s version of the SAT) and thus was not able to gain acceptance into a university————————————————-As for top {22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the HS it is a meaningless metric since some high schools are located deep In the ghetto where every hallway has a armed guard multiple incidents of students engaging in gunfights metal detectors serious assault cases with kids being hospitalized etc…. and graduating with a perfect GPA is possible merely by showing up while others are like Stuyvesant or Thomas Jefferson HS that require admission exams ————————————————–No IQ tests are not pattern recognition tests they test various things from logical reasoning abilities pattern recognition the ability to manipulate 3d objects reading comprehension critical thinking.A subset called the raven matrices are pattern recognition which is only 1 subtest out of the 5 required for the Stanford binet————————————————–>BTW there is

    Reply
  71. >As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias.

    All I am saying is that the equivalent position, with the same requirements is present in both countries.

    With wages corresponding to what similar positions with the same requirements are offering

    There is no shortage of applicants in both countries, but in the US the younger candidates routinely fail the exam while in China they routinely pass.

    Therefore it supports my original claim, That the US has many unfit workers in comparison to China

    Statistically people that don’t have college degrees apply to this job, and statistically blacks and Hispanics are less likely to have college degrees. As a result the bulk of applicants are black and Hispanic.

    Likewise in China, the people who typically apply for this position are high school grads who failed to score high enough on the Gao Kao (China’s version of the SAT) and thus was not able to gain acceptance into a university
    ————————————————-

    As for top % of the HS, it is a meaningless metric since some high schools are located deep In the ghetto where every hallway has a armed guard, multiple incidents of students engaging in gunfights, metal detectors, serious assault cases with kids being hospitalized etc…. and graduating with a perfect GPA is possible merely by showing up

    while others are like Stuyvesant or Thomas Jefferson HS that require admission exams

    ————————————————–

    No IQ tests are not pattern recognition tests, they test various things from logical reasoning abilities, pattern recognition, the ability to manipulate 3d objects, reading comprehension, critical thinking.

    A subset called the raven matrices are pattern recognition which is only 1 subtest out of the 5 required for the Stanford binet

    ————————————————–

    >BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – Hundreds of people lined up Monday outside a plumbers union in Long Island City for a chance to become an apprentice.
    Some have camped outside Plumbers Local Union 1  overnight – some have been there longer – hoping to get an application.
    Some have pitched tents on the rain-soaked sidewalks, 1010 WINS’ John Montone reported.
    It was a sea of umbrellas on a rainy morning, but for those lined up hoping to get a new job a little bad weather could not dampen their spirits.

    The union is handing out 1,000 applications. They’ll consider 100 applications from that pool.
    As CBS 2’s Andrea Grymes reported, the white pieces of paper are among the hottest tickets in town.
    “Waking up, sun just beating down on you. Sweating. Oh my God, it was bad,”

    Reply
  72. Do you have numbers? Can you tell me how many blacks as a percentage who graduated at the top 20% of their HS class applied for the $12/hr job? How many whites? How many Chinese in China? As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. IQ tests are pattern recognition tests. The more you are exposed to abstract patterns the higher your scores. Today’s children score much higher than children 100 years ago. The human races hasn’t evolve that much in two generations. The fact that the Chinese written language is ideograms gives them an advantage in taking IQ tests. BTW, blacks don’t have to be smarter when they can have more children per capita. The blacks I know who are tradesmen have been tradesmen for years now. The point is if you can read and figure out things why would you work for $12/hr. BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    Reply
  73. Do you have numbers? Can you tell me how many blacks as a percentage who graduated at the top 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of their HS class applied for the $12/hr job? How many whites? How many Chinese in China? As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias. IQ tests are pattern recognition tests. The more you are exposed to abstract patterns the higher your scores. Today’s children score much higher than children 100 years ago. The human races hasn’t evolve that much in two generations. The fact that the Chinese written language is ideograms gives them an advantage in taking IQ tests. BTW blacks don’t have to be smarter when they can have more children per capita. The blacks I know who are tradesmen have been tradesmen for years now. The point is if you can read and figure out things why would you work for $12/hr. BTW there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    Reply
  74. I don’t intend to give any specific or identifying information. Nor have I personally worked in China. Unfortunately with the current state of the internet, certain people have the ability to comb over a persons post history and gleam up identifying and potentially life ruining information. Suffice to say some of my postings could be deemed as racist and getting outed on the internet could be ruinous. What I am willing to divulge is that I am a Director level employee that has worked with multiple multinational companies in various capacities, but has been primarily based in the US with a engineering background. Most of the information on China vs US manufacturing, I acquired from periodic meetings with our counterpart facilities, and from personal observations. (By counterpart facilities I mean facilities making the same productline in other countries) We have periodic meetings where we exchange our issues, such as manufacturing issues, employment issues, supplier issues etc… to see if they are relevant to facilities in the US. We also try to find new suppliers and backup suppliers that can supply necessary components and this information gets exchanged with all the counterparts. A lot of components are specialized, so sometimes we need to teach the supplier how to produce it. Any supplier that gets trained on how to produce a component gets shared. I am willing to help with the article but cannot provide any specific stats like exactly how many components are in our assemblies, and what percentage of our components are sourced from what countries etc… or any stats that would/could compromise my anonymity

    Reply
  75. I don’t intend to give any specific or identifying information. Nor have I personally worked in China. Unfortunately with the current state of the internet certain people have the ability to comb over a persons post history and gleam up identifying and potentially life ruining information. Suffice to say some of my postings could be deemed as racist and getting outed on the internet could be ruinous. What I am willing to divulge is that I am a Director level employee that has worked with multiple multinational companies in various capacities but has been primarily based in the US with a engineering background.Most of the information on China vs US manufacturing I acquired from periodic meetings with our counterpart facilities and from personal observations.(By counterpart facilities I mean facilities making the same productline in other countries)We have periodic meetings where we exchange our issues such as manufacturing issues employment issues supplier issues etc… to see if they are relevant to facilities in the US.We also try to find new suppliers and backup suppliers that can supply necessary components and this information gets exchanged with all the counterparts. A lot of components are specialized so sometimes we need to teach the supplier how to produce it. Any supplier that gets trained on how to produce a component gets shared. I am willing to help with the article but cannot provide any specific stats like exactly how many components are in our assemblies and what percentage of our components are sourced from what countries etc… or any stats that would/could compromise my anonymity

    Reply
  76. You are attacking strawmen, nobody is specifically looking for a specific race to fill a position. Rather specific races are applying and failing to get a position in large numbers because they don’t have the qualifications for other positions aka a college degree. If the position wasn’t competitive in wages and benefits then people wouldn’t be applying in the first place. The entire point was that in the US many people applied and failed to pass a very basic reasoning test, while in China it was the opposite. Nor am I saying that there aren’t smart black people What I am saying is that the crowd that typically does not have a college degree who does apply for said position tend to be on the left end of the bell curve. And that the left end of the bell curve for blacks and Hispanics are much lower than the left end of the bell curve for the Chinese in china. ———————- Second, the carpenters, plumbers, electricians who make extremely high wages have licenses from trade unions A assembler is UNSKILLED labor, while the trades you listed are SKILLED labor there is a difference These are not positions one can get straight from highschool A electrician and plumber making the big bucks needs to pass numerous written exams, and have to undergo apprenticeships Getting these apprenticeships are extremely difficult since many people apply and many people get rejected I recall in NYC, they had ratio’s like 200 applicants for every 1 apprenticeship position.

    Reply
  77. You are attacking strawmen nobody is specifically looking for a specific race to fill a position. Rather specific races are applying and failing to get a position in large numbers because they don’t have the qualifications for other positions aka a college degree. If the position wasn’t competitive in wages and benefits then people wouldn’t be applying in the first place. The entire point was that in the US many people applied and failed to pass a very basic reasoning test while in China it was the opposite. Nor am I saying that there aren’t smart black people What I am saying is that the crowd that typically does not have a college degree who does apply for said position tend to be on the left end of the bell curve. And that the left end of the bell curve for blacks and Hispanics are much lower than the left end of the bell curve for the Chinese in china.———————-Second the carpenters plumbers electricians who make extremely high wages have licenses from trade unions A assembler is UNSKILLED labor while the trades you listed are SKILLED labor there is a differenceThese are not positions one can get straight from highschool A electrician and plumber making the big bucks needs to pass numerous written exams and have to undergo apprenticeships Getting these apprenticeships are extremely difficult since many people apply and many people get rejected I recall in NYC they had ratio’s like 200 applicants for every 1 apprenticeship position.

    Reply
  78. Do you have numbers? Can you tell me how many blacks as a percentage who graduated at the top 20% of their HS class applied for the $12/hr job? How many whites? How many Chinese in China? As I was saying you are drawing conclusions without accounting for the selection bias.

    IQ tests are pattern recognition tests. The more you are exposed to abstract patterns the higher your scores. Today’s children score much higher than children 100 years ago. The human races hasn’t evolve that much in two generations. The fact that the Chinese written language is ideograms gives them an advantage in taking IQ tests.

    BTW, blacks don’t have to be smarter when they can have more children per capita.

    The blacks I know who are tradesmen have been tradesmen for years now. The point is if you can read and figure out things why would you work for $12/hr. BTW, there is a strong demand for apprentices now a days since a lot of people no longer want to get their hands dirty.

    Reply
  79. I don’t intend to give any specific or identifying information. Nor have I personally worked in China.

    Unfortunately with the current state of the internet, certain people have the ability to comb over a persons post history and gleam up identifying and potentially life ruining information. Suffice to say some of my postings could be deemed as racist and getting outed on the internet could be ruinous.

    What I am willing to divulge is that I am a Director level employee that has worked with multiple multinational companies in various capacities, but has been primarily based in the US with a engineering background.

    Most of the information on China vs US manufacturing, I acquired from periodic meetings with our counterpart facilities, and from personal observations.

    (By counterpart facilities I mean facilities making the same productline in other countries)

    We have periodic meetings where we exchange our issues, such as manufacturing issues, employment issues, supplier issues etc… to see if they are relevant to facilities in the US.

    We also try to find new suppliers and backup suppliers that can supply necessary components and this information gets exchanged with all the counterparts.

    A lot of components are specialized, so sometimes we need to teach the supplier how to produce it. Any supplier that gets trained on how to produce a component gets shared.

    I am willing to help with the article but cannot provide any specific stats like exactly how many components are in our assemblies, and what percentage of our components are sourced from what countries etc… or any stats that would/could compromise my anonymity

    Reply
  80. You are attacking strawmen, nobody is specifically looking for a specific race to fill a position.

    Rather specific races are applying and failing to get a position in large numbers because they don’t have the qualifications for other positions aka a college degree. If the position wasn’t competitive in wages and benefits then people wouldn’t be applying in the first place.

    The entire point was that in the US many people applied and failed to pass a very basic reasoning test, while in China it was the opposite.

    Nor am I saying that there aren’t smart black people

    What I am saying is that the crowd that typically does not have a college degree who does apply for said position tend to be on the left end of the bell curve. And that the left end of the bell curve for blacks and Hispanics are much lower than the left end of the bell curve for the Chinese in china.

    ———————-

    Second, the carpenters, plumbers, electricians who make extremely high wages have licenses from trade unions

    A assembler is UNSKILLED labor, while the trades you listed are SKILLED labor there is a difference

    These are not positions one can get straight from highschool

    A electrician and plumber making the big bucks needs to pass numerous written exams, and have to undergo apprenticeships

    Getting these apprenticeships are extremely difficult since many people apply and many people get rejected

    I recall in NYC, they had ratio’s like 200 applicants for every 1 apprenticeship position.

    Reply
  81. I wish you luck in finding a black or Hispanic stupid enough to work for a $12/hr job that requires them to figure out things. The first thing they will figure out is that there are much easier ways to make money. There is book smart and then there is real world smart. Now the blacks I know that can read a blueprint (similar) are carpenters, plumbers and electricians and making from $35/hr to $75/hr. You may not have notice, at least where I live, blacks don’t work minimum wage jobs anymore. Those jobs are usually left for undocumented immigrants.

    Reply
  82. I wish you luck in finding a black or Hispanic stupid enough to work for a $12/hr job that requires them to figure out things. The first thing they will figure out is that there are much easier ways to make money. There is book smart and then there is real world smart. Now the blacks I know that can read a blueprint (similar) are carpenters plumbers and electricians and making from $35/hr to $75/hr. You may not have notice at least where I live blacks don’t work minimum wage jobs anymore. Those jobs are usually left for undocumented immigrants.

    Reply
  83. 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the most profitable valuable corporations on earth are SOEs. Get real

    Reply
  84. I’m writing an article on the trade war and would value your real-life experience, especially since the article depends heavily on stats (what a concept!). If you can PM me through Vuukle, please do, or just reply to this and we’ll figure out something. Thanks

    Reply
  85. I’m writing an article on the trade war and would value your real-life experience especially since the article depends heavily on stats (what a concept!).If you can PM me through Vuukle please do or just reply to this and we’ll figure out something.Thanks

    Reply
  86. This is the US’s third trade attack on China. The previous two lasted a total of 40 years. America lost both. Be careful what you wish for.

    Reply
  87. This is the US’s third trade attack on China. The previous two lasted a total of 40 years. America lost both.Be careful what you wish for.

    Reply
  88. Markets are irrelevant, the Chinese market crashes multiple times every year for seemingly no reason Recall how when China’s market crashed in 2008 yet growth still continued. The markets in the US are controlled by big institutional investors while the markets in China are ruled by speculators and is seen as gambling The average Chinese citizen invests in real estate and savings, very few put money in the markets. >The stock market is where Chinese masses can pretty much do something which seems to have an aura of freedom to it, and it is located within China, and not outside of it. This is probably the reason so many Chinese view their stock market as nothing other than gambling. Since people are so used to having everything managed, they have the impression that in fact companies are managed by the government too, so they see stocks that fluctuate as not exactly the same things as the companies behind them, which are supposed to be managed, therefore not much left to be speculated. Hence, in theory, their stocks are not supposed to fluctuate anyway. But since they do, the Chinese retail ‘investors’ mostly see the fluctuating stocks more as a means of gambling rather than a reasonable investment. >This is in fact the reason Chinese stocks are so volatile. Mentalities do not change quickly, and this mentality of central management in China is not going to change any time soon either. People continue to expect their leaders to be their central managers, for almost everything. If the leaders will desire to give free markets more room to maneuver, it will definitely take many years to get their local investing masses used to it. And this will mean huge volatility, which, to some extent, will actually require some kind of central management once in a while, simply because that is what is expected by the local investors! Of course it sounds absurd to us who have lived all of our lives in capitalism (or some kind of democracy) where things are mostly left to the

    Reply
  89. Markets are irrelevant the Chinese market crashes multiple times every year for seemingly no reason Recall how when China’s market crashed in 2008 yet growth still continued. The markets in the US are controlled by big institutional investors while the markets in China are ruled by speculators and is seen as gamblingThe average Chinese citizen invests in real estate and savings very few put money in the markets. >The stock market is where Chinese masses can pretty much do something which seems to have an aura of freedom to it and it is located within China and not outside of it. This is probably the reason so many Chinese view their stock market as nothing other than gambling. Since people are so used to having everything managed they have the impression that in fact companies are managed by the government too so they see stocks that fluctuate as not exactly the same things as the companies behind them which are supposed to be managed therefore not much left to be speculated. Hence in theory their stocks are not supposed to fluctuate anyway. But since they do the Chinese retail ‘investors’ mostly see the fluctuating stocks more as a means of gambling rather than a reasonable investment.>This is in fact the reason Chinese stocks are so volatile. Mentalities do not change quickly and this mentality of central management in China is not going to change any time soon either. People continue to expect their leaders to be their central managers for almost everything. If the leaders will desire to give free markets more room to maneuver it will definitely take many years to get their local investing masses used to it. And this will mean huge volatility which to some extent will actually require some kind of central management once in a while simply because that is what is expected by the local investors! Of course it sounds absurd to us who have lived all of our lives in capitalism (or some kind of democracy) where things are mostly left to the ‘go

    Reply
  90. Yes, exactly. Cutting taxes on production while taxing consumption is something the US has needed to do for a long, long time now.

    Reply
  91. Yes exactly. Cutting taxes on production while taxing consumption is something the US has needed to do for a long long time now.

    Reply
  92. In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world. ” Nice try, wu mau. But the issue isn’t what China’s trade is with the world. It is what it is in relation to the US. Stick to the topic. “The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. ” No, it does not. You are confusing budget deficit with trade deficit, which are entirely two different things. Or are you doing so on purpose and hoping you wouldn’t get caught? If so, you just got caught. “while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse” No, it isn’t. “For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP” Fine. Then let us cut China off completely since according to you they don’t need us anyway. See how that goes.

    Reply
  93. In other words” China’s trade is in balance with the world. “”Nice try”””” wu mau.But the issue isn’t what China’s trade is with the world. It is what it is in relation to the US. Stick to the topic.””””The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities”” namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing”” which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. “”””No”” it does not. You are confusing budget deficit with trade deficit which are entirely two different things. Or are you doing so on purpose and hoping you wouldn’t get caught? If so”” you just got caught.””””while it is only 1{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for the U.S. in reverse””””No”””” it isn’t.””””For China”””” U.S. trade contributes some 2.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to GDP””””Fine. Then let us cut China off completely since according to you they don’t need us anyway. See how that goes.”””””””

    Reply
  94. This thread has really brought out the fifty-centers and the usual haters. My mostly US stock portfolio is doing fine. Chinese markets are down 20%. Why aren’t the western economies hurting similarly? Because they expect China will eventually make some concessions to playing by the rules, and the situation has been so bad, for so long, with so many afraid to do anything about it, that even a minor improvement would be extremely good news for the markets. I expect Xi is looking for a way to save face. Pretty bad to declare yourself emperor for life and then immediately have it demonstrated you don’t actually have the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming).

    Reply
  95. This thread has really brought out the fifty-centers and the usual haters.My mostly US stock portfolio is doing fine. Chinese markets are down 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}. Why aren’t the western economies hurting similarly? Because they expect China will eventually make some concessions to playing by the rules and the situation has been so bad for so long with so many afraid to do anything about it that even a minor improvement would be extremely good news for the markets. I expect Xi is looking for a way to save face. Pretty bad to declare yourself emperor for life and then immediately have it demonstrated you don’t actually have the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming).

    Reply
  96. I wish you luck in finding a black or Hispanic stupid enough to work for a $12/hr job that requires them to figure out things. The first thing they will figure out is that there are much easier ways to make money. There is book smart and then there is real world smart.

    Now the blacks I know that can read a blueprint (similar) are carpenters, plumbers and electricians and making from $35/hr to $75/hr. You may not have notice, at least where I live, blacks don’t work minimum wage jobs anymore. Those jobs are usually left for undocumented immigrants.

    Reply
  97. Assemblers aren’t making 150k, A assembler takes parts and puts them together The product line is highly specialized equipment, so it makes no sense to fully automate it, most of the components are assembled by hand and for certain steps we use custom engineered jigs The only requirement is a high school diploma, no prior work experience required, no criminal record and passing a drug test. The test merely requires looking at a assembly drawing and then putting the parts in front of you together. While reading the assembly notes If you don’t know what a assembly drawing is google “Assembly drawing exploded view” The position starts at $12 an hour in flyover country which is pretty reasonable compared to other jobs that only require a GED and no prior work experience Offers medical, dental and annual raises with plenty of opportunity to move up in the company. The national average salary for a Production Assembler is $33,029 in United States. Which is what you would be making if you stayed for 5+ years. Finding a black or Hispanic capable of passing these simple requirements and passing the assembly test is merely impossible nevermind being competent, punctual and of good moral character (not stealing from company or starting conflicts with coworkers) . And these two groups are the main groups that go for this position. The same exact product line has the same facility in China has the same positions in China, paying the same wages as other positions in China with no requirements other than a high school degree and no work experience. Yet the applicant quality is much higher. And this applies as well to the white collar professions that support the manufacturing such as the schedulers, quality inspectors, equipment testers and calibrators, engineers, supply chain managers, account managers, sales etc…. the labor quality is simply higher. I suspect the blacks and Hispanics are probably too dumb to get affirmative action too dumb to go to college, so

    Reply
  98. Assemblers aren’t making 150k A assembler takes parts and puts them togetherThe product line is highly specialized equipment so it makes no sense to fully automate it most of the components are assembled by hand and for certain steps we use custom engineered jigsThe only requirement is a high school diploma no prior work experience required no criminal record and passing a drug test. The test merely requires looking at a assembly drawing and then putting the parts in front of you together. While reading the assembly notesIf you don’t know what a assembly drawing is google Assembly drawing exploded view””The position starts at $12 an hour in flyover country which is pretty reasonable compared to other jobs that only require a GED and no prior work experience Offers medical”” dental and annual raises with plenty of opportunity to move up in the company. The national average salary for a Production Assembler is $33029 in United States.Which is what you would be making if you stayed for 5+ years.Finding a black or Hispanic capable of passing these simple requirements and passing the assembly test is merely impossible nevermind being competent punctual and of good moral character (not stealing from company or starting conflicts with coworkers) . And these two groups are the main groups that go for this position. The same exact product line has the same facility in China has the same positions in China paying the same wages as other positions in China with no requirements other than a high school degree and no work experience. Yet the applicant quality is much higher.And this applies as well to the white collar professions that support the manufacturing such as the schedulers quality inspectors equipment testers and calibrators engineers supply chain managers account managers sales etc…. the labor quality is simply higher. I suspect the blacks and Hispanics are probably too dumb to get affirmative action too dumb to go”

    Reply
  99. I’m writing an article on the trade war and would value your real-life experience, especially since the article depends heavily on stats (what a concept!).

    If you can PM me through Vuukle, please do, or just reply to this and we’ll figure out something.

    Thanks

    Reply
  100. Markets are irrelevant, the Chinese market crashes multiple times every year for seemingly no reason

    Recall how when China’s market crashed in 2008 yet growth still continued.

    The markets in the US are controlled by big institutional investors while the markets in China are ruled by speculators and is seen as gambling

    The average Chinese citizen invests in real estate and savings, very few put money in the markets.

    >The stock market is where Chinese masses can pretty much do something which seems to have an aura of freedom to it, and it is located within China, and not outside of it. This is probably the reason so many Chinese view their stock market as nothing other than gambling. Since people are so used to having everything managed, they have the impression that in fact companies are managed by the government too, so they see stocks that fluctuate as not exactly the same things as the companies behind them, which are supposed to be managed, therefore not much left to be speculated. Hence, in theory, their stocks are not supposed to fluctuate anyway. But since they do, the Chinese retail ‘investors’ mostly see the fluctuating stocks more as a means of gambling rather than a reasonable investment.

    >This is in fact the reason Chinese stocks are so volatile. Mentalities do not change quickly, and this mentality of central management in China is not going to change any time soon either. People continue to expect their leaders to be their central managers, for almost everything. If the leaders will desire to give free markets more room to maneuver, it will definitely take many years to get their local investing masses used to it. And this will mean huge volatility, which, to some extent, will actually require some kind of central management once in a while, simply because that is what is expected by the local investors! Of course it sounds absurd to us who have lived all of our lives in capitalism (or some kind of democracy) where things are mostly left to the ‘gods’ (little or big, central or local, public or private, divine or not). But things are quite different in China.

    Wikipedia even has a article

    2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence

    >China reported a 6.9 percent GDP growth rate for 2015 and an “economic volume of over ten trillion U.S. dollars”.[12] Forbes journalist argues that the “stock market crash does not indicate a blowout of the Chinese physical economy.” China is shifting from a focus on manufacturing to service industries[13] and while it has slowed down, it is still growing by 5%.[14] After this last turbulence, as of January 2017 the Shanghai Composite Index has been stable around 3,000 points, 50% more than before the bubble popped.[2]

    Reply
  101. ” In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world. ”

    Nice try, wu mau.

    But the issue isn’t what China’s trade is with the world. It is what it is in relation to the US. Stick to the topic.

    “The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. ”

    No, it does not. You are confusing budget deficit with trade deficit, which are entirely two different things. Or are you doing so on purpose and hoping you wouldn’t get caught? If so, you just got caught.

    “while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse”

    No, it isn’t.

    “For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP”

    Fine. Then let us cut China off completely since according to you they don’t need us anyway. See how that goes.

    Reply
  102. Bilateral trade between the two countries contributes little to GDP. For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP, while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse. If their trading fell by 20%—more than most expect—the direct hit to their GDP would be 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. China’s global current-account surplus has shrunk at an unprecedented rate, falling from 10% of GDP in 2007 to a mere 1.4% today. In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world. Meanwhile, there has been little change in the US trade balance with the world, indicating that America’s massive deficit is not China’s fault at all. The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further. Kishore Mabubhani said it best: “The West is making a big strategic mistake if it perceives China to be the threat to liberal ideology. In so doing, it is only looking for a scapegoat to avoid looking at its own self-inflicted injuries. The key question that Western minds need to ask is a simple one: how was the relative over-performance of Western societies in the second half of the 20th century replaced by under-performance in the 21st century? The answer will not come from looking at China. It will come from looking in the mirror”.

    Reply
  103. Bilateral trade between the two countries contributes little to GDP. For China U.S. trade contributes some 2.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} to GDP while it is only 1{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} for the U.S. in reverse.If their trading fell by 20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}—more than most expect—the direct hit to their GDP would be 0.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} and 0.2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} respectively. China’s global current-account surplus has shrunk at an unprecedented rate falling from 10{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of GDP in 2007 to a mere 1.4{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} today. In other words China’s trade is in balance with the world.Meanwhile there has been little change in the US trade balance with the world indicating that America’s massive deficit is not China’s fault at all. The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further.Kishore Mabubhani said it best: The West is making a big strategic mistake if it perceives China to be the threat to liberal ideology. In so doing”” it is only looking for a scapegoat to avoid looking at its own self-inflicted injuries. The key question that Western minds need to ask is a simple one: how was the relative over-performance of Western societies in the second half of the 20th century replaced by under-performance in the 21st century? The answer will not come from looking at China. It will come from looking in the mirror””.”””””””

    Reply
  104. This thread has really brought out the fifty-centers and the usual haters.

    My mostly US stock portfolio is doing fine. Chinese markets are down 20%. Why aren’t the western economies hurting similarly? Because they expect China will eventually make some concessions to playing by the rules, and the situation has been so bad, for so long, with so many afraid to do anything about it, that even a minor improvement would be extremely good news for the markets. I expect Xi is looking for a way to save face. Pretty bad to declare yourself emperor for life and then immediately have it demonstrated you don’t actually have the Mandate of Heaven (Tianming).

    Reply
  105. Assemblers aren’t making 150k, A assembler takes parts and puts them together

    The product line is highly specialized equipment, so it makes no sense to fully automate it, most of the components are assembled by hand and for certain steps we use custom engineered jigs

    The only requirement is a high school diploma, no prior work experience required, no criminal record and passing a drug test.

    The test merely requires looking at a assembly drawing and then putting the parts in front of you together. While reading the assembly notes

    If you don’t know what a assembly drawing is google “Assembly drawing exploded view”

    The position starts at $12 an hour in flyover country which is pretty reasonable compared to other jobs that only require a GED and no prior work experience

    Offers medical, dental and annual raises with plenty of opportunity to move up in the company.

    The national average salary for a Production Assembler is $33,029 in United States.

    Which is what you would be making if you stayed for 5+ years.

    Finding a black or Hispanic capable of passing these simple requirements and passing the assembly test is merely impossible nevermind being competent, punctual and of good moral character (not stealing from company or starting conflicts with coworkers) . And these two groups are the main groups that go for this position.

    The same exact product line has the same facility in China has the same positions in China, paying the same wages as other positions in China with no requirements other than a high school degree and no work experience. Yet the applicant quality is much higher.

    And this applies as well to the white collar professions that support the manufacturing such as the schedulers, quality inspectors, equipment testers and calibrators, engineers, supply chain managers, account managers, sales etc…. the labor quality is simply higher.

    I suspect the blacks and Hispanics are probably too dumb to get affirmative action too dumb to go to college, so they are probably averaging 75 IQ the Chinese are probably 95 but the performance gap is massive

    ———————-

    >So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on

    You realize its not just “one test” there are massive databanks that have totals of over a million over 5+ decades

    The bottomline is that people who identified as black americans when asked to choose from 4 racial categories (whites, Asian, Hispanic, black) average 85

    And no there is no indication that blacks and Hispanics have fat tails, Asians have fat tails but mostly because Asian lumps in almost everybody from Filipino’s, to samoans, to Chinese, Indians, Persians etc….

    Reply
  106. So no selection bias? The ads in America said $150K salary? That’s what the ads in China said. So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on.

    Reply
  107. So no selection bias? The ads in America said $150K salary? That’s what the ads in China said. So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on.

    Reply
  108. Expanding credit for the SOEs doesn’t undermine their currency, which isn’t fully tradeable (and that is the main reason why it has not and will not be a viable reserve alternative currency to the dollar). The SOEs spend domestically. That is their purpose. To increase employment and some targeted strategic investment that are uneconomical. In the end, they just crowd out investment from the purely market oriented part of the economy.

    Reply
  109. Expanding credit for the SOEs doesn’t undermine their currency which isn’t fully tradeable (and that is the main reason why it has not and will not be a viable reserve alternative currency to the dollar). The SOEs spend domestically. That is their purpose. To increase employment and some targeted strategic investment that are uneconomical. In the end they just crowd out investment from the purely market oriented part of the economy.

    Reply
  110. The will eventually be forced to chose between the SOEs and their currency. The problem with undying SOEs is that they are forever on life support and the life support is always more expensive as the years go by.

    Reply
  111. The will eventually be forced to chose between the SOEs and their currency. The problem with undying SOEs is that they are forever on life support and the life support is always more expensive as the years go by.

    Reply
  112. Bilateral trade between the two countries contributes little to GDP.

    For China, U.S. trade contributes some 2.5% to GDP, while it is only 1% for the U.S. in reverse.

    If their trading fell by 20%—more than most expect—the direct hit to their GDP would be 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.

    China’s global current-account surplus has shrunk at an unprecedented rate, falling from 10% of GDP in 2007 to a mere 1.4% today. In other words, China’s trade is in balance with the world.

    Meanwhile, there has been little change in the US trade balance with the world, indicating that America’s massive deficit is not China’s fault at all.

    The blame lies squarely with US macroeconomic realities, namely a low rate of domestic saving and a high rate of federal borrowing, which Trump’s tax cuts will cause to increase further.

    Kishore Mabubhani said it best: “The West is making a big strategic mistake if it perceives China to be the threat to liberal ideology. In so doing, it is only looking for a scapegoat to avoid looking at its own self-inflicted injuries. The key question that Western minds need to ask is a simple one: how was the relative over-performance of Western societies in the second half of the 20th century replaced by under-performance in the 21st century? The answer will not come from looking at China. It will come from looking in the mirror”.

    Reply
  113. He’s talking TRADE deficit, not budget deficit. But then again, you think rich people hoard their dollars in Scrooge McDuck money bins, too.

    Reply
  114. He’s talking TRADE deficit not budget deficit.But then again you think rich people hoard their dollars in Scrooge McDuck money bins too.

    Reply
  115. China is producing everything it need for itself””Really? Oil”” food”” replacements for its export markets? Nope.”””

    Reply
  116. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion” That’s normal. When the economy booms, so do import/exports. And the tariffs from the first round are still not fully in effect, either.

    Reply
  117. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion””That’s normal. When the economy booms”” so do import/exports. And the tariffs from the first round are still not fully in effect”” either.”””

    Reply
  118. That really is your topic – IQ – arguing north or south of average by a couple of points and throwing entire ethnic groups away. Always talking about that. Gosh. I wonder what your genes are – pretty sure I wouldn’t want them in my family even if your sister was hot.

    Reply
  119. That really is your topic – IQ – arguing north or south of average by a couple of points and throwing entire ethnic groups away. Always talking about that. Gosh. I wonder what your genes are – pretty sure I wouldn’t want them in my family even if your sister was hot.

    Reply
  120. No they aren’t average IQ by country shows that China averages 105 The US average IQ is 98, but the sample was limited to whites African Americans average around 85, Mexican Americans average around 90 Furthermore while the US is 65% white, most of this 65% are 40+ The younger workforce on the other hand is around 50% white And this is backed up by PISA exam which shows Chinese students in poverty outperforming Europeans in science and math. Yes most of the age 40+ in China are dullards due to lack of education, high poverty and mal nutrition but the young in China are extremely bright. There’s no lack of talented labor in China, I could give the basic assemblers test to the 30 people and get 30 people passing, and in one day be done with staffing. In the US for the exact same product line with the exact same test the vast bulk of Americans simply wouldn’t be able to do it

    Reply
  121. No they aren’t average IQ by country shows that China averages 105The US average IQ is 98 but the sample was limited to whitesAfrican Americans average around 85 Mexican Americans average around 90Furthermore while the US is 65{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} white most of this 65{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} are 40+The younger workforce on the other hand is around 50{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} white And this is backed up by PISA exam which shows Chinese students in poverty outperforming Europeans in science and math. Yes most of the age 40+ in China are dullards due to lack of education high poverty and mal nutrition but the young in China are extremely bright. There’s no lack of talented labor in China I could give the basic assemblers test to the 30 people and get 30 people passing and in one day be done with staffing. In the US for the exact same product line with the exact same test the vast bulk of Americans simply wouldn’t be able to do it

    Reply
  122. …in China it isn’t. Because the SOEs absorb 80{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the financial capital and they are not allowed to go under.

    Reply
  123. The average Chinese is also as dumb as rocks. That is what average means. The problem is that no manufacturer wants to pay what it takes to hire smarter people in the US and in Mexico. The smarter Chinese is affordable as least for now. Won’t be like than in the future.

    Reply
  124. The average Chinese is also as dumb as rocks. That is what average means. The problem is that no manufacturer wants to pay what it takes to hire smarter people in the US and in Mexico. The smarter Chinese is affordable as least for now. Won’t be like than in the future.

    Reply
  125. Oh, yes, blowing up credit bubbles. It will work, because “This Time Is Different.” (Narrator’s Voice: “It wasn’t.”)

    Reply
  126. Oh yes blowing up credit bubbles. It will work because This Time Is Different.””(Narrator’s Voice: “”””It wasn’t.””””)”””

    Reply
  127. Just wondering have you ever taken a economics course? Do you understand what a market is? Any overproduction in cement or basic metals would cause a price drop in the commodity market Global Cement prices are up 4.5% since 2013 And you can look up the global prices for all the base metals like tin, copper, iron etc… all of them do not indicate what you are claiming.

    Reply
  128. Just wondering have you ever taken a economics course? Do you understand what a market is? Any overproduction in cement or basic metals would cause a price drop in the commodity market Global Cement prices are up 4.5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} since 2013And you can look up the global prices for all the base metals like tin copper iron etc… all of them do not indicate what you are claiming.

    Reply
  129. The vast majority of modern manufacturing is done by machines Manufacturing moved to China not because of dumb labor, but because you could hire high IQ people for dirt cheap. If your machine broke down, no problem some Chinese guy (with basically a masters in EE) would pull out the circuit boards and using various probes and other instrumentation determine what would board would need to be replaced. And he would work annually for a fraction of the salary of a equivalent in the US. Most people don’t realize that the Toyota factory churning out cars has only half of its staff on the manufacturing floor, the other half is engineers and supply chain guys, supervisors etc…. the engineers at these facilities are responsible for fixing daily technical issues and working with R & D. Nor do they realize how dumb the average Mexican is, manufacturing in the US is a nightmare. At our facility our only requirement for a assembler was a high school degree, us citizenship, passing a drug and criminal background check and then passing a simple assembly test, looking at a assembly engineering drawing and then putting the components together. The vast majority of Americans were not able to complete the assembly test, while for our facility in China they completed it in half the time and 100% of the applicants passed. A assembler position in the US would average maybe 30 interviews a day and get 29 rejections. Not to mention all the HR related issues of assemblers walking off shift, excessive lateness, stealing from work,slow work speed and poor attitudes. And for those saying that the position wasn’t paying enough, it paid $12 an hour starting in a area with an extremely low cost of living. Property taxes for a 2000 square foot house would be $800-$1000 a year There’s a reason why all the tech CEO’s and high level management employees are convinced they can’t replace China and its not because they want to make more profits. At the end of the day, high end and middli

    Reply
  130. The vast majority of modern manufacturing is done by machinesManufacturing moved to China not because of dumb labor but because you could hire high IQ people for dirt cheap. If your machine broke down no problem some Chinese guy (with basically a masters in EE) would pull out the circuit boards and using various probes and other instrumentation determine what would board would need to be replaced. And he would work annually for a fraction of the salary of a equivalent in the US.Most people don’t realize that the Toyota factory churning out cars has only half of its staff on the manufacturing floor the other half is engineers and supply chain guys supervisors etc…. the engineers at these facilities are responsible for fixing daily technical issues and working with R & D.Nor do they realize how dumb the average Mexican is manufacturing in the US is a nightmare. At our facility our only requirement for a assembler was a high school degree us citizenship passing a drug and criminal background check and then passing a simple assembly test looking at a assembly engineering drawing and then putting the components together. The vast majority of Americans were not able to complete the assembly test while for our facility in China they completed it in half the time and 100{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of the applicants passed. A assembler position in the US would average maybe 30 interviews a day and get 29 rejections. Not to mention all the HR related issues of assemblers walking off shift excessive lateness stealing from workslow work speed and poor attitudes. And for those saying that the position wasn’t paying enough it paid $12 an hour starting in a area with an extremely low cost of living. Property taxes for a 2000 square foot house would be $800-$1000 a yearThere’s a reason why all the tech CEO’s and high level management employees are convinced they can’t replace China and its not because th

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  131. So no selection bias? The ads in America said $150K salary? That’s what the ads in China said.

    So what are the standard deviation for those IQ tests? And you do know that blacks in America are not homogeneous. Big difference between blacks whose ancestor grew up down South as to those whose ancestor grew up in the North East. Also big difference between American blacks and Caribbean blacks and Africans. If you can’t tell how fat the legs are you can’t really tell what is going on.

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  132. That is what Mexico is for … and now they are cheaper to use than China … and they are closer. The only downside? President Two Scoops is antagonizing them. What a maroon.

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  133. That is what Mexico is for … and now they are cheaper to use than China … and they are closer. The only downside? President Two Scoops is antagonizing them. What a maroon.

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  134. China is dumping incredible quantities of money into it’s economy. Right now, they overproduce in every basic manufacturing category. Every year they produce 50 times the annual us consumption of cement. Basic metals production is through the roof. China is dumping the equivalent of the Obama Stimulus EVERY 28 DAYS. China will hit the wall. That is why Xi has decided to stay on. He believes China needs a strong man to handle the coming crash.

    Reply
  135. China is dumping incredible quantities of money into it’s economy. Right now they overproduce in every basic manufacturing category. Every year they produce 50 times the annual us consumption of cement. Basic metals production is through the roof. China is dumping the equivalent of the Obama Stimulus EVERY 28 DAYS.China will hit the wall. That is why Xi has decided to stay on. He believes China needs a strong man to handle the coming crash.

    Reply
  136. If I were to guess, there are constant negotiations taking place between PRC, and USA on trade. Within a year, a breakthrough on a comprehensive deal will be announced, and their will either be no tariffs between the two, or there will be a schedule of tariffs agreed to by both parties, that will expire over time. That would also be the perfect time to announce a gold standard, for international trade, but I doubt it will happen.

    Reply
  137. If I were to guess there are constant negotiations taking place between PRC and USA on trade. Within a year a breakthrough on a comprehensive deal will be announced and their will either be no tariffs between the two or there will be a schedule of tariffs agreed to by both parties that will expire over time.That would also be the perfect time to announce a gold standard for international trade but I doubt it will happen.

    Reply
  138. Expanding credit for the SOEs doesn’t undermine their currency, which isn’t fully tradeable (and that is the main reason why it has not and will not be a viable reserve alternative currency to the dollar).

    The SOEs spend domestically. That is their purpose. To increase employment and some targeted strategic investment that are uneconomical. In the end, they just crowd out investment from the purely market oriented part of the economy.

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  139. The US economy can be self sufficient but it is too expensive to manufacture in the US This is why the US is not growing as faast as . China just needs jet engines

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  140. The US economy can be self sufficient but it is too expensive to manufacture in the US This is why the US is not growing as faast as . China just needs jet engines

    Reply
  141. Tariffs are not working. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion. And this was after the first round of tariffs was imposed. It will be interesting to see how much bigger China’s surplus will grow after new round of 200 billion will be implemented very soon. My guess is that we will see new records. China is producing everything it need for itself, I mean EVERYTHING even at this stage as a still developing country. From socks, pens to advanced tech like smartphones, laptops and even space station. Soon they will close the gap on semicondustor industry and need for oil should also be lower because the trend of electrification of car industry in their county. US is big, yes but it will never be as big as China and will always need to import a lot of stuff. 320 million population in my opinion is not enough to be fully self sufficient. China has population of 4 x USA + Japan. For them full independence as they develop it quite easy task. US manufacturing sector in much weaker and US doesn’t have a choice but buy a lot of stuff from China. US consumers will pay more and their wallets become thinner, only US government will benefit on receiving additional tax money. And knowing US administration mentality they will waste all those additional billions of dollas on increasing army budget. US could solve the deficit problem by investing a lot more on R&D and science, invent and develop a lot more cool hi-tech gadgets and tech that world will love and buy.

    Reply
  142. Tariffs are not working. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion. And this was after the first round of tariffs was imposed.It will be interesting to see how much bigger China’s surplus will grow after new round of 200 billion will be implemented very soon. My guess is that we will see new records. China is producing everything it need for itself I mean EVERYTHING even at this stage as a still developing country. From socks pens to advanced tech like smartphones laptops and even space station. Soon they will close the gap on semicondustor industry and need for oil should also be lower because the trend of electrification of car industry in their county. US is big yes but it will never be as big as China and will always need to import a lot of stuff.320 million population in my opinion is not enough to be fully self sufficient.China has population of 4 x USA + Japan. For them full independence as they develop it quite easy task.US manufacturing sector in much weaker and US doesn’t have a choice but buy a lot of stuff from China.US consumers will pay more and their wallets become thinner only US government will benefit on receiving additional tax money. And knowing US administration mentality they will waste all those additional billions of dollas on increasing army budget.US could solve the deficit problem by investing a lot more on R&D and science invent and develop a lot more cool hi-tech gadgets and tech that world will love and buy.

    Reply
  143. The will eventually be forced to chose between the SOEs and their currency. The problem with undying SOEs is that they are forever on life support and the life support is always more expensive as the years go by.

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  144. “Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion”

    That’s normal. When the economy booms, so do import/exports. And the tariffs from the first round are still not fully in effect, either.

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  145. That really is your topic – IQ – arguing north or south of average by a couple of points and throwing entire ethnic groups away. Always talking about that. Gosh. I wonder what your genes are – pretty sure I wouldn’t want them in my family even if your sister was hot.

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  146. No they aren’t average IQ by country shows that China averages 105

    The US average IQ is 98, but the sample was limited to whites

    African Americans average around 85, Mexican Americans average around 90

    Furthermore while the US is 65% white, most of this 65% are 40+

    The younger workforce on the other hand is around 50% white

    And this is backed up by PISA exam which shows Chinese students in poverty outperforming Europeans in science and math.

    Yes most of the age 40+ in China are dullards due to lack of education, high poverty and mal nutrition but the young in China are extremely bright.

    There’s no lack of talented labor in China, I could give the basic assemblers test to the 30 people and get 30 people passing, and in one day be done with staffing. In the US for the exact same product line with the exact same test the vast bulk of Americans simply wouldn’t be able to do it

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  147. The average Chinese is also as dumb as rocks. That is what average means. The problem is that no manufacturer wants to pay what it takes to hire smarter people in the US and in Mexico. The smarter Chinese is affordable as least for now. Won’t be like than in the future.

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  148. Just wondering have you ever taken a economics course? Do you understand what a market is?

    Any overproduction in cement or basic metals would cause a price drop in the commodity market

    Global Cement prices are up 4.5% since 2013

    And you can look up the global prices for all the base metals like tin, copper, iron etc… all of them do not indicate what you are claiming.

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  149. The vast majority of modern manufacturing is done by machines

    Manufacturing moved to China not because of dumb labor, but because you could hire high IQ people for dirt cheap.

    If your machine broke down, no problem some Chinese guy (with basically a masters in EE) would pull out the circuit boards and using various probes and other instrumentation determine what would board would need to be replaced. And he would work annually for a fraction of the salary of a equivalent in the US.

    Most people don’t realize that the Toyota factory churning out cars has only half of its staff on the manufacturing floor, the other half is engineers and supply chain guys, supervisors etc…. the engineers at these facilities are responsible for fixing daily technical issues and working with R & D.

    Nor do they realize how dumb the average Mexican is, manufacturing in the US is a nightmare. At our facility our only requirement for a assembler was a high school degree, us citizenship, passing a drug and criminal background check and then passing a simple assembly test, looking at a assembly engineering drawing and then putting the components together.

    The vast majority of Americans were not able to complete the assembly test, while for our facility in China they completed it in half the time and 100% of the applicants passed. A assembler position in the US would average maybe 30 interviews a day and get 29 rejections. Not to mention all the HR related issues of assemblers walking off shift, excessive lateness, stealing from work,slow work speed and poor attitudes.

    And for those saying that the position wasn’t paying enough, it paid $12 an hour starting in a area with an extremely low cost of living.

    Property taxes for a 2000 square foot house would be $800-$1000 a year

    There’s a reason why all the tech CEO’s and high level management employees are convinced they can’t replace China and its not because they want to make more profits.

    At the end of the day, high end and middling manufacturing is not moving to either the US or Mexico because the average person in flyover country and Mexico are dumb as rocks.

    And anyone praising Mexico is not upper management and there is a very good reason for why Mexico’s economy stagnated until NAFTA which basically was nothing more than a scam to rebrand things manufactured in other countries as “made in mexico” and exported to the US to avoid tariffs.

    Tl:dr If Mexico was a competent country with quality workers the laws of economics would magically reroute supply chains without trade wars, tariffs or free trade agreements and likewise the same applies for every 3rd world sh1thole like india or Somalia.

    Companies choose eastern Europe and china for high IQ, work ethic, competence combined with lower wages

    Reply
  150. China is dumping incredible quantities of money into it’s economy. Right now, they overproduce in every basic manufacturing category. Every year they produce 50 times the annual us consumption of cement. Basic metals production is through the roof. China is dumping the equivalent of the Obama Stimulus EVERY 28 DAYS.

    China will hit the wall. That is why Xi has decided to stay on. He believes China needs a strong man to handle the coming crash.

    Reply
  151. If I were to guess, there are constant negotiations taking place between PRC, and USA on trade. Within a year, a breakthrough on a comprehensive deal will be announced, and their will either be no tariffs between the two, or there will be a schedule of tariffs agreed to by both parties, that will expire over time.
    That would also be the perfect time to announce a gold standard, for international trade, but I doubt it will happen.

    Reply
  152. Tariffs are not working. Newest data show that China’s trade surplus with US grew to new record in August – $31 billion. And this was after the first round of tariffs was imposed.

    It will be interesting to see how much bigger China’s surplus will grow after new round of 200 billion will be implemented very soon. My guess is that we will see new records.

    China is producing everything it need for itself, I mean EVERYTHING even at this stage as a still developing country. From socks, pens to advanced tech like smartphones, laptops and even space station. Soon they will close the gap on semicondustor industry and need for oil should also be lower because the trend of electrification of car industry in their county.

    US is big, yes but it will never be as big as China and will always need to import a lot of stuff.
    320 million population in my opinion is not enough to be fully self sufficient.

    China has population of 4 x USA + Japan. For them full independence as they develop it quite easy task.

    US manufacturing sector in much weaker and US doesn’t have a choice but buy a lot of stuff from China.

    US consumers will pay more and their wallets become thinner, only US government will benefit on receiving additional tax money. And knowing US administration mentality they will waste all those additional billions of dollas on increasing army budget.

    US could solve the deficit problem by investing a lot more on R&D and science, invent and develop a lot more cool hi-tech gadgets and tech that world will love and buy.

    Reply

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