India’s and Pakistan’s War and Nuclear War Plans

One of the most likely places for a major power war or nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. They each have between 80 and 200 nuclear weapons. This is the most likely place where a major nuclear war could break out. It is important for us to understand the situation and the thinking of the two countries.

India and Pakistan have had four major wars in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999. They also have had many border skirmishes and incidents.

There is an insightful video from a 2015 talk by Abhijit Iyer.

India’s military believes that they can defeat Pakistan. India would use all conventional means to beat Pakistan even if Pakistan used nuclear weapons.

Cumulatively from 1986 to 2008, there were 67,000 to 81,000 Indian deaths in Punjab and Kashmir from Pakistan related terrorism. The Punjab insurgency casualty figures include 17,000 military deaths.

The deaths warped Indian military think to include strategies for winning a Pakistan war even in a nuclear war. India was not thinking about using their own nuclear weapons against Pakistan. India’s nuclear weapons are for fighting a war with China.

An India-Pakistan war would be ten times larger than the Iran-Iraq war. Various war game scenarios forecast over 20 million casualties.

India’s Border and Port Security

Indian created a three-tier barbed wire electrified fence from 2007-2008. Indian deaths from terrorism dropped after the electrified fence.

The 2008 Mumbai Pakistan terrorists carried out a series of 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai. The attacks caused at least 174 people died, including 9 attackers, and more than 300 were wounded.

India security its coastal cities and ports against a repeat of the Mumbai attacks.

Since 2008 and the securing of India’s border and ports, there have only been about 400 deaths in India from Pakistan terrorism. Pakistan has seen a spike to over 55,000 deaths from Pakistan terrorism.

Abhijit Iyer explains that India kept Pakistan nut jobs out of India and inside Pakistan. The terrorist nuts are wrecking Pakistan.

Only 8 million people read the Indian english press. The rest of India reads Hindi and local language papers and media. Hindi and local language papers ignored the Mumbai attacks after 1-3 days. The non-Hindi papers viewed it like a pub brawl in Ireland.

India’s industrialists did not support going to war with Pakistan over the Mumbai attacks.

India’s War Planners Think About Accepting Large Casualities

India thought about using the Stalin tactic of hugging the enemy. This would mean sending armored brigades to surround Pakistan cities. Any tactical nukes used against Indian forces would cause more Pakistan casualties.

Pakistan has four thresholds for use of nuclear weapons.
1. After enough economic blockade, they would use nuclear weapons. Economic strangulation and economic blockade is a potential threat to Pakistan, if the Navy is unable to counter it effectively.
2. Pakistan would launch if they had nuclear weapons captured or if there was the complete knockout or comprehensive destruction of a large part of the Pakistan Armed Forces, particularly and most importantly the Pakistan Air Force .
3. Spatial threshold – The military penetration of Indian Armed Forces into Pakistan on a large scale may elicit a nuclearized massive retaliation, if and only if the Pakistan Army is unable to stop such intervention. For instance, many analysts, including some Indians, believe that the Indus Valley— the “lifeline” of Pakistan— is one of many other “red lines” that Indian forces should not cross. The capture of key objectives in this crucial northeast-southwest axis might well provoke nuclear retaliation by Pakistan.
4. Political threshold – Destabilization of the country by India could also be a nuclear threshold if Islamabad has credible reasons to believe that the integrity of the country were at stake. Stated scenarios are political destabilization or large-scale internal destabilization which the Pakistan Marines (along with the paramilitary command) were unable to stabilize effectively. One example would be encouraging the breakaway of one or more of Pakistan’s provinces (as in during the Bangladesh Liberation War).

In war games with retired Pakistani military, spies and military planners there was no use of Pakistan nuclear weapons even after each of the first three thresholds were crossed.

Tensions Over Another Attack and Over Water

Tensions are again rising between India and Pakistan in the wake of a deadly terrorist attack earlier this month that killed more than 40 Indian police officers in Kashmir. New Delhi has decided to retaliate in part by cutting off some river water that flows downstream to Pakistan.

Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. One recent estimate suggests that Pakistan will face a shortage of 31 million acre-feet of water by 2025. Pakistan uses about 104 million acre feet every year for agricultural irrigation.

More than 400 dams are under construction, or planned for the coming decade, in India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan; many more will be built across the Chinese border in Tibet. If the plans come to fruition, this will be among the most heavily dammed regions in the world. These schemes both aggravate international tensions and carry grave ecological risks.

Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment concluded that even with a drastic reduction in carbon emissions, one-third of the Himalayan glaciers are doomed to melt by 2100. This might be as high as two-thirds.

Himalayan glacier melting would put the food security of one billion people at risk from 2060 onwards. There will be an initial period of augmented river flow due to glacial melt. The rivers will begin to dry up for part of the year from 2050 or 2060.

SOURCES- Youtube, Wikipedia, Abhijit Iyer, Foreign Policy

Written By Brian Wang.

62 thoughts on “India’s and Pakistan’s War and Nuclear War Plans”

  1. Is Hindoosthan doomed ?

    As per the Hindoo Scriptures, the Ghazwa E Hind prophecy is to come true

    The Mahabharata, Book 3: Vana Parva: Markandeya-Samasya Parva: Section CLXXXIX

    And the whole world will be filled with “mleccha behaviour” (means Islamic behavior) and notions and “ceremonies, and sacrifices” (Like in the Cresent and Muslim India) will cease, and joy will be nowhere and “general rejoicing” (like gandoo Deeewali and Holeee) will disappear.
    And without doubt all men will adopt the behaviour of the mlecchas, “become omnivorous”(eat Gau Mata) without distinction, and cruel in all their acts, when the end of the Yuga will come
    And, O king, overwhelmed with covetousness, “men will kill Brahmanas” and appropriate and enjoy the possessions of their victims.
    And the regenerate ones, “oppressed by Sudras”,and afflicted with fear, and crying Oh and Alas,will wander over the earth “without anybody to protect them”
    And the earth will “soon be full of mlecchas” (an Islamic World in Asia and Africa and EU), and the Brahmanas will “fly in all directions for fear of the burthen of taxes”

  2. What about the Kashmir Genocide ?

    The Ruling political dispensation of India (Hindoosthan) is a front of the RSS (a quasi wanna be Nazi party).The RSS in its documented history and intellectual posits has admired and co-opted and co-owned Hitler – not merely as a Role Model – but as a Kalki Avatar – or an Avatar of Vishnoo – the Hindoo God !

    The SS part of the RSS is a lift from the Nazi SS and the “R” stands for “Rats”

    The RSS is infested by the vermins of the Brahmin/Bania/Kayastha triad – which represent the priestly and trading classes of Hindoosthan who never fought a war for their nation – but incited the same and also carried out the largest unknown genocide in History – that of the Buddhists

    The Bhagwad Gita JUSTIFIES genocide, w/o remorse,guilt and WITH DIVINE SANCTION.The Indian Military and Para Military,is a race of criminal mercenaries called Kshatriyas – who were the offspring of rapes by the Huns,Mongols,Sakas, Scythians,Persians, Parthinians,Greeks 1500-2000 years ago.They were discarded by their races and interbred and were treated as outcastes for centuries – until the Brahmins co-opted them as criminal mass murderers (around 1000 years ago) – and who are now in Kashmir !

    Nazis are on record JUSTIFYING their actions based on the thesis of the Bhagwad Gita explained in this note.

    History Records that the Nazis were ALSO inspired by the Gita, per se

    Why the “Nazis and Hitler and Himmler”, love the Gita

  3. Quite possible as India has developed the required capability…India has more experience in tactical war than China…bat me!

  4. Ifs and buts. If Pakistan used its nuclear weapons india would be destroyed no ifs and no buts about that, vice versa too. Anyone telling you anything else is talking out their arse.

  5. The South China Sea is more likely to come to an aggressive head due to real American Trade relations in the region that s being hindered by China.

  6. Or even those who are just athier?
    The logic is that anything that reduces the confidence that the doctrines (such as that dying in a fight for the religion will get you the best spot in heaven) are true, will make people less willing to risk their lives or kill others for their religion. The notion that atheists ( note spelling) might be right is one such thing.

  7. Yes sir, making chemical weapons is not easy but a lot easier than procuring nuclear weapons or material. Two factors will make me stick to my prediction though. The first I already mentioned, with the amount of resources stolen during the ISIS rampage (hundreds of millions of dollars worth) it makes setting up the facilities to produce them possible with a safe haven. The other is that, based on the where they are, they are surrounded by Muslim countries that produce and maintain chemical weapons arsenals. It is not a large leap to them being provided the necessary expertise and/or kidnapping the necessary expertise and forcing compliance to produce them. I would say we will find out one way or the other over the next decade.

  8. bombs in the tens of kt have a destruction radius of a few hundred meters, surely they’d make a city look terrible and have anyone run, but the ashes would be just in a nighborhood, a sore eye, not “millions of people vaporized”. Tactical nukes with such yield would not be dropped on cities anyways, but rather on military bases, nuclear bunkers and other military assets.

    But of course Hollywood won’t listen…

  9. Lets me see 6,000 200KT+ hydrogen bombs. The US is 3.8 million sq mls. Urban area is 106 thousand sq mls. About 100 sq mls burn. So that’s every urban area and a good chunk of the suburban area in America. About 80% of the population will die to start with. Of course based on the effects of a few large volcano eruptions we can expect a nuclear winter lasting a few years. A lot of people will starve during this period.

    So to recap, most of the population of the US, Europe, Russia, China will die. And then about 80% of the population of the rest of the world, mostly by starvation. Civilization will survive. But it will take about 6 to 10 generations to recover.

  10. India has a population of 1.1 billion on its way to 2 billion. They have no choice. By the way India also have Monsoon rains. Building dams and reservoirs to trap and contain the Monsoon rains is very sensible.

    My friend Raj visited India last year. He showed me pictures of this nice dam they build recently. They are making progress.

  11. The number one cause of death is not terrorism. It is usually chronic health issues cause by smoking, drinking, and over eating. After that it is accidents, suicide, and maybe murder. More people probably die of bees sting than terrorism.

  12. Just a little reminder: out of the 6000+ nukes that US/Russia have each, about 300 are strategic (city-buster), the rest is tactical (ship/tank buster). Same for most of the other countries, including India and Pakistan. A tactical nuke is like a beefed up MOAB/FOAB + additional radiation damage. Bad, for sure, but not “civilazition-ending” stuff.

  13. I think the story Bnt tells is what we wished would happen, in an ideal world with competent us defence policy

  14. So spreading Dawkins’ work to the middle East should mean that Christians, Muslims and Jews forget their differences and band together against their common enemy, the athiests?

    Worth a try I guess.

  15. If anything, the Tokyo sarin attacks were rather reassuring on that front.
    We had a nutcase group with lots of resources, access to Japanese tech and scientists, no time pressure… And they still were able to stage the most feeble nerve gas attack.
    Nerve agents ain’t rocket science. Clearly it’s much more difficult than rockets. Hezbollah can manage rockets no problem.

  16. So the ilegal immigrants are stopped by the wall on Mexico’s southern border? Paid for by… Mexico.

    Trump you evil, conniving, magnificent bastard.

  17. I wish somedays people would write a genuine article rather than opinions. India will fight china??? Did a 8 yr old write this?

  18. Your lack of knowledge on this subject is even worse than it is for economics.

    Executive Summary on Nuclear War

    200 million megaton of explosions will not kill the biosphere. The current nuclear arsenal will not kill all humans and the pattern of nuclear explosions for a nuclear war between the largest nuclear powers will not destroy civilization, let alone kill all people or even half of all people. The greatest risks from a total nuclear war are from fire and starvation and not from the radiation or the blasts.

  19. If you die from drug resistant TB, Hanson’s disease or just an illegal driving drunk (30% of our DUI’s here in Charlotte), you can at least die smug because it wasn’t a terrorist.

  20. …and fallout in the agricultural regions and watersheds will kill more further down the road. I’d say that more than 100 million would die.

  21. Great job UK, you created an ethno-state military dictatorship perpetually at war with India.

    That was by design.

    The rest of your rant goes down hill so much I don’t know how to respond.

  22. You’ll find that the sides of the fence have to do with $$$$$$, not nationality.


    Kind of like how more than half of US Congress members are Israeli citizens.

    What does that have to do with any of this…even if true?

    You’re scum for supporting it. Neoliberal trash.

    Uhh…the Neoliberals are against the Wall just as they are against Trump. Who is building the wall, Shig? Get a grip.

  23. BTW, Mexicans aren’t coming here as terrorists.

    They aren’t coming here mostly at all. Most illegals crossing the US border come from south of Mexico these days. This is because of changes in Mexican demographics and economic prospects over the past 20 years, while Honduras and Guatamala’s have worsened.

    Why do you think the George Soros funded and operated Migrant Caravans are coming from there?

  24. India would use all conventional means to beat Pakistan even if Pakistan used nuclear weapons.

    Doubtful. The Indian public would demand ‘eye-for-an-eye’ retaliation.

    And Pakistan is just a nice proxy for China. Thus the Chinese would get to ‘nuke’ India while Kirachi and Islamabad would pay the price, not Chinese cities. So, chances are high that Pakistan would use the nukes depending upon China’s level of control over the forces that would deploy them regardless of orders from Pakistan’s chain of command.

  25. Didn’t the U.S. seize control of Pakistan’s nukes after the WTC attacks? Did they yield control back to Pakistan at some point, or are they like Trident, with Pakistan “owning” them but the U.S. saying when they can and can’t be fired?

  26. Can’t irrigate fields with nuclear waste. The dams are more for capturing water and irrigating fields. Most of the dams should have been built decades ago. Now they don’t have a choice.

  27. Big difference in construction. The wall at the southern border will not be electrified.

    BTW, Mexicans aren’t coming here as terrorists.

  28. The death toll from a nuclear exchange will be a lot higher than what they think it will be. After the exchange, India will have no choice but to conquer Pakistan to prevent a repeat.

    The nuclear exchange will kill about about 10 million in each country. But another 100 million would die from starvation caused by the disruption of their economy and society. Expect both Muslims and Hindus to riot and kill each other. More people will die in the riots than in the nuclear exchange.

  29. It’s nothing more than apartheid. You’ll find that the sides of the fence have to do with $$$$$$, not nationality.

    Kind of like how more than half of US Congress members are Israeli citizens.

    You’re scum for supporting it. Neoliberal trash.

  30. A far more likely outcome is that terrorists will acquire chemical weapons and the ability to make them. It may happen in Iraq, Pakistan, take your pick. As someone trained in NBC warfare you would not believe the amount of damage to a country that can be done with persistent nerve agents and an organization skilled in their use. I actually expected ISIS to obtain them, especially with the amount of wealth they looted to support future operations. Some of the scenarios we worked shocked me to the core. IMO China needs to be very careful building highways and infrastructure into terrorism ridden areas or the recent bombing attempt against their embassy could be seen as the good old days.

  31. But? I don’t understand? “Experts” tell us that a border fence cannot possibly work.

    They said the same thing about Israel, and OK they were wrong there, but the laws of averages mean they are even MORE likely to be right this time. Right?

  32. Brian’s post has very curious timing – India has just now carried out a major airstrike deep inside Pakistani territory, hitting 3 terrorist training camps located ~100km from Abbottabad (where Bin Laden was slain).

    Is Brian getting his talking points from Pakistan’s patron China?

  33. … carry on waffling.
    They wanted independence, and now you put it as if the locals were blameless for the state of affairs, “lambs led to slaughter” as if they didn’t have two brain cells to rub together. It is always somebody else’s fault.

  34. Leaving the EU isn’t about imperialism, it’s purely about short term tax breaks for the rich. It’s completely stupid still, but for different reasons.

  35. What to believe? Cartoon caricatures created by a click hungry media or actual history of actual people being killed in real life?

    You’re right. Ignore actual deaths and go with the media image.

  36. Your Ukraine could actually be the most likely scenario for nuclear conflict. NATO vs Moscow could precipitate a serious escalation chain.

  37. India is not the worst. India and Pakistan are the nuclear armed states that have had the most actual wars and the most actual recent fighting with tens of thousands of casualties. The US v Russia (and USSR) was the most likely before during the cold war but currently this seems unlikely and there has been no direct fighting. The US v China or Russia v China also less active and less unlikely. Although US v China has the South China Sea and Taiwan flashpoint possibilities.

  38. Strange that you think a nuclear war is most likely between India and Pakistan given 1) the US is the only country to have ever used nukes and 2) the US continues to wage wars of aggression all over the globe.

  39. Great job UK, you created an ethno-state military dictatorship perpetually at war with India. And they thought breaking up India was a good idea. The breakup alone cost a million lives during the forced relocation – an atrocity according to the UN. And now the UK wants out of the EU so they can pursue their imperialist stupidity once more. Whatever, the entire country will have to be evacuated because of the heat relatively soon anyway.

  40. As far as nuking each other, NFW. There is almost as many musulmanii in India as in Paki ever since Bangladesh split off. It’d be like nuking yourself. Not saying the planners should stop thinking and strategizing and preparing, BUT this rivalry is not going to become the literal flashpoint of nuclear war, specifically.

  41. “Indian created a three-tier barbed wire electrified fence from 2007-2008. Indian deaths from terrorism dropped after the electrified fence.”

    Shocked face.

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