A Brookings research paper calculates that from 2008 to 2016, China has been overstating its GDP growth by about 1.7% per year. This would mean that China is now overstating its GDP by 20%. The investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower than official statistics.
The Brookings economists were using tax receipts and satellite data of lights at night and increase energy production.
A separate report estimates that China’s shadow economy has shrunk to about 5-10%. The shadow economy is where people avoid taxes and hide wealth and income.
If Brookings is correct then China economy is only $11 trillion which is about half the US $21 trillion GDP. China would still be about twice as large as Japan’s economy.
China will need to change many things to get better near-term and long-term growth.
China needs to provide support and bribes to young couples to increase birth rates. The worries about being able to afford more children, education and healthcare need to be removed. A shrinking workforce will reduce the 2050 economy by about 20-30%.
China had 15.2 million births and about 200K-300K IVF births in 2018. By 2025, China should have about 1 million IVF births per year.
Denmark leads the world in IVF rates. 10% of all Denmark births are via IVF. Denmark has socialized medicine and a desperate need for a higher birthrate.
If China matches Denmark’s levels of IVF by 2030, then China would have about 2 million IVF births per year.
Written By Brian Wang