China Will Still Do Whatever It Takes to Catch Up

Senior Scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Yi Fuxian makes the case that China’s nominal GDP will peak at 84% of the US GDP in 2033. He is the author of Big Country with an Empty Nest and claims that China’s aging population will not be able or willing to innovate.

Nextbigfuture disagrees and believes that the will of China’s leadership and population to adopt innovation and to make whatever changes are needed to cities and business will not diminish. I do not see how the aging of the next few years affects China’s urbanization and the economic boost that will come from integrating into megacity regions. There is a related Nextbigfuture article about the ongoing process of integrating cities into megacities.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 47 by 2033 and 56 in 2050. In the US, the median age will be 41 in 2033 and 44 in 2050.

Nextbigfuture sees this aging population prediction playing out mainly over the next ten years. Will China’s population that is heads to an average of six years older than the US have one percent per year slower catch up by 2030? I do not think there is a 1% per year innovation adoption difference with a population aging to 47 in 2033 versus one going to 41 in 2033.

China ended 2018 with 90.03 trillion yuan in GDP. The end of 2018 exchange rate was 6.8755 yuan to 1 US dollar but is now 6.7 yuan to 1 US dollar. China probably had 1 to 1.5% GDP growth in the first quarter. This means China has a GDP of $13.5 trillion and it is $14 trillion including Hong Kong and Macau. US GDP is at $21.0 at the end of the first quarter of 2019. China is at 66% of the US economy now. Pre-trade war China’s currency was at 6.3 to the US dollar. If China’s currency heads back to that level after a trade deal then China (with HK and Macau) could be ending 2019 with about $16 trillion in GDP and the US with about $22 trillion.

China Has the Will to Totally Change to Get Economic Growth

China’s leadership and society is willing to do more things to achieve faster economic growth. China is willing and funding the integration of large cities into megacity regions. This is providing an extra 10-25% of GDP per capita boost. The US has this advantage over Europe. The US has been willing to do more than Europe to tear apart the old to make way for the new. China is willing to do more than the US to make way for the new and more productive.

Nextbigfuture believes effective antiaging technology will be emerging over the next few years. Even moderately effective antiaging will make people in the 65-80 year range much healthier and more productive. Japan, China, Europe and other aging populations will see a massive economic benefit from

Yi Fuxian Makes the Aging China Case

In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. Many economists believe China will surpass the US as the largest economy before 2030.

The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in 1986. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea achieved annual growth rates of between 7 percent and 8 percent in over the two decades catching up from the one-sixth per capita GDP. Economists including Justin Lin Yifu, the former World Bank chief economist, have argued that China would go through a similar trajectory and the nation would be able to achieve a 6 percent annual growth rate from now until the 2030s.

The younger an economy’s population structure, the stronger its vitality for economic innovation. As the median age rises and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over increases then Yi is expecting China’s economic growth rate might plummet.

136 thoughts on “China Will Still Do Whatever It Takes to Catch Up”

  1. Hi Jan,

    Yes China will try to turn demographics around. But those actions do not change the economics and GDP growth much for the next 15 years. New babies have to get to working age. The changes over the few years that boost GDP are things like new factories and megacities

    The population situation now and for the next ten years are mostly the people already alive.

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  2. You’ve already proven in another thread that you don’t know economics when you referred to savings as that kept in savings accounts. That instantly disqualified you from being taken seriously.

    Like I said, “Another dumbass who doesn’t know basic economics.”

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  3. Oh boy!

    No wonder you are making yourself look soo clueless! You don’t know what ‘savings’ means in economics! You actually thought I was referring to savings in savings accounts! OMG!

    This madness of yours is now explainable! Still madness, but at least I see that it comes from your gross ignorance of economics.

    Oh, and regarding the Chinese and their savings accounts…when they do get old they start DRAWING DOWN those accounts. Which impacts national savings (economic’s term) in a huge way.
    This has been happening in Japan for over a decade now and only issuing up debt do they pay for their Keynesian BS that doesn’t accomplish anything but gives the appearance that everything is ok.

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  4. Clearly the robots would be controlled by a master AI and would be akin to a genie.

    Better yet imagine if a bunch of aliens came and they dropped it off and left the ai and the nanomachines

    So yes if the Somali’s managed to obtain significantly advanced technology they could indeed go from the poorest country to the richest country overnight.

    All they would have to do is dream of massive skyscrapers and the Artificial Intelligence would do all the design, and command the nanobots to rearrange molecules to build it.

    They could overnight go from the poorest country to the wealthiest country with no change in population and with every person exactly the same as the day before

    Technology = Wealth

    Population is irrelevant

    The same can be applied to China, if China reaches the pinnacle of technology, even if their population fell to as low as say 100 million and the US outnumbered them 5 to 1

    The 100 million would without a doubt have higher GDP

    This thought experiment along with Finland vs Somalia population vs GDP

    Conclusively proves that GDP is mainly a function of technology rather than population

    As in I could give you the population of 2 countries and would not be able to guess which one was wealthier simply based on the population

    On the other hand If I gave you two countries and their tech levels

    High, Mid, Low you can 95% of the time guess which country has the higher GDP

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  5. Umm no they don’t

    A country is just production

    A man produces stuff like food, clothes etc… and he uses it or he trades it to other people

    They can produce excess stuff and trade it for capital, and then when they retire they live off that capital

    When a economy is structured where the old save for their own retirement rather than relying on ponzi schemes there is no effect on the economy.

    What you are talking about a scenario where a country collapses due to aging

    is when a old person produces no extra capital in his youth and saves nothing for retirement because the government plans to rob future children

    The future children are then screwed because a declining population means they need to produce not only enough for themselves, but also for the old people who produced nothing in their youth

    This is why EU has a population retirement bomb

    Because many europeans did nothing and no a shrinking population means european youth need to produce enough for themselves and for all the old people

    Japan also has one

    China does not because their retirement schemes are not ponzi’s

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  6. One, I mentioned DEMOGRAPHICS. You don’t seem to understand what that term means or you deliberately decided to move the goal posts by insisting I was talking about POPULATION.

    Two, you’re still full of BS:

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Finland was worth 251.88 billion US dollars in 2017. The GDP value of Finland represents 0.41 percent of the world economy.

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth 12237.70 billion US dollars in 2017. The GDP value of China represents 19.74 percent of the world economy.

    Finland has more tech integrated into its economy and as part of its direct economic output even, than China does. Yet the Chinese economy is way bigger, its growth rates (the real ones) were bigger than Finland’s.

    Everyone knows it was not tech that was the main driver to China’s economic rise. Whereas for Finland over the last 25 years, it was. So why isn’t Finland richer than China, according to your ‘thesis’?

    Savings -> production -> consumption = GDP.

    And those nations pear shaped demographically stop a) consuming as much and b) start paying for it by reducing savings. It’s called: Getting old.

    Oh yes, Japan has gone into severe debt to keep things afloat with Keynesian nonsense and China is doing it right now on an even more massive level. But Finland is also screwed as is most of Europe. Even in the US as the Baby Boomer retirement cycle kicks into real high gear, there will be effects that tech won’t make up for at all.

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  7. No.

    No matter how much you re-post your BS, it doesn’t somehow magically make it true.

    Do we really need to do the math of 314,000 people vs 700,000,000 people?

    This means that a small high tech country with 300,000 people could easily have a higher GDP than a massive country with almost a billion people

    The second paragraph of yours proves that YOU DO need to do that math in the first paragraph.

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Finland was worth 251.88 billion US dollars in 2017. The GDP value of Finland represents 0.41 percent of the world economy.

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth 12237.70 billion US dollars in 2017. The GDP value of China represents 19.74 percent of the world economy.

    Finland has more tech integrated into its economy and as part of its direct economic output even, than China does. Yet the Chinese economy is way bigger, its growth rates (the real ones) were bigger than Finland’s.

    And don’t suddenly try to claim you meant ‘per capita GDP’, because that doesn’t matter either.

    Not to mention that you are switching the context from talking about population growth to comparing just total populations <– YOU started did that, not I. I just took advantage of your idiocy and ran with it to pound you in the sand, like I did just now.

    Technology implemented throughout an economy IS a factor. A major one. But not the main one. Demographics is way bigger. Retirees suck savings capital from the economy, big time.

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  8. I didn’t mean literally storing food and cars in warehouses

    It was figurative meant to illustrate savings

    Old people earn money through their lifetimes and if they saved their money they have millions to retire with.

    Otherwise by your line of reasoning taking all these old people and giving them zyklon B would benefit the economy

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  9. MIssing the point

    Population of Finland = 5 mil
    Population of Somalia = 15 mil

    GDP of finland = 252 billion
    GDP of Somalia = 7 billion

    So no population does not correlate with GDP

    And when you compare historically a small country like Singapore today has a higher GDP than the entire world in the year 1000 AD

    there were 275 million People globally in 1000 AD

    Technology = GDP, not population = GDP

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  10. The correlation is technology = higher GDP

    not population

    Remember at one point China had 700 million people and they were poorer than the Luxembourg with 314,000 people and this is in TOTAL gdp in the 1960’s

    The same applies to Somalia vs Finland

    Do we really need to do the math of 314,000 people vs 700,000,000 people?

    This means that a small high tech country with 300,000 people could easily have a higher GDP than a massive country with almost a billion people

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  11. It is hard to get the right answer when your job depends on you not getting the right answer.

    Is calling your opponent a child your single, go to, put down? Because it makes YOU look like the child.

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  12. China market cap alone,is enough….they have billions of people and tech,will-power,smarts….etc they are a unit!!!,you just don’t see the water yet!!! it’s coming bud!

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  13. Me neither, something else we agree on. I used to be a Repulican before Iraq II. Today’s Republican party has the same moral high ground as ISIS … but with more pedophiles … maybe.

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  14. As other have noted … the World Bank beleives what the Chinese tell them. How smart could they be? Trust but verify.

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  15. Yeah, they have been “developing” since the 70s when Nixon went to visit. Don’t you think they should have put on their big boy pants by now?

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  16. When I read your diatribe I thought of the millions of North Americans that were murdered by Europeans in their effort to conquer and keep North Africa.

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  17. You are correct, 250 million kids is a lot of people. How many people will they and their children need to support when they grow up? That is the rub.

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  18. Funny. Because in 2016 they amply demonstrated that control, to the absolute shock and horror of the nations that suck in America’s Defense Teat.

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  19. Maybe you should program a bot to do your entries. It would take less time and they would have better spelling and you could still program it to spout your obnoxious and incorrect bull-snot.

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  20. It is the only one we have but it is a choice. Would you have the US go down the road of civil strife and assasination? That was retorical, your answer would, of course, be yes.

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  21. Private independent corporation whose business is to make accurate predictions, not propaganda. Don’t confuse with such organizations in Russia whose only purpose is propaganda. Indispensable is even higher level than just a leader.

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  22. Wow, you are so confident. Maybe you should move there and get in on the ground floor of the next world power. I am sure you will be welcomed with open arms.

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  23. IMF rely on the “official numbers” provided by China. Numerous studies of China’s GDP came to similar conclusion, it is inflated by at least 1 to 2%. The studies used more objective measures of GDP such as energy use, shipping trade traffic, imports of certain products, etc.

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  24. The nice thing about Brian always changing commenting systems is that your precious knowledge and thoughts are wiped out along with them.

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  25. No, but there are plenty of people predicting China will crash and burn. What happens to your fantasy growth rates then? But … but … it hasn’t happen yet you say. China is still growing you say.

    China can’t achieve economic escape velocity without the US and will reutrn to Earth with a thud, sooner or later.

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  26. If the Chinese really want to grow maybe they should ease up on control. That won’t happen. The CCP wants what is best for China … as long as they are in charge and no one else. So, what is more important in China? Success or stability? They won’t be able to do both, maybe neither.

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  27. No no! Don’t fall for that Japanese propaganda too!

    Japan’s so called “Lost decade” started in 1990. And hasn’t ended. Do the math.

    Calling it a “decade” is falling for their lies.

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  28. Just a second: Weird. Nonsensical ideas. Claims that the USA is being run by a secret cabal. Able to debate technical issues for a number of rounds before suddenly veering into something from the X-files. Claims to be a weapons engineer.
    Is this our old Russian friend Phonuen? Phanewn? Some thing like that?

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  29. China has not been growing >6% in the past 10 years. Chinese propaganda claims to their GDP have been growing. Two different things entirely.

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  30. Hahahah! Matteo’s gig as a America-hating troll is soo well known that everyone doesn’t put up with it!

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  31. but will it also have gotten so bad in this time frame?

    A China with a Lost Decade like Japan had? Only unlike Japan, this is China that did not get rich first? Yup!

    Not for all the children depending on region/social stratification. But the damage for China as a whole will be big enough to effect the world that even the better off families will have for those kids.

    And China won’t be able to ‘export’ it’s way out of that mess, either. Those days in the past were fluke of the Cold War Era, really.

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  32. Like Scrooge McDuck stores his wealth in money bins and Mark Stewart thought the same way about rich people ‘hoarding’ money and thus keeping it out of the economy.

    Yes, Mark Stewart once said that. I proved the Money Bin analogy to what he was saying. To give him credit vs this particular troll, Mark did see the error in his thinking once I had had old Scrooge McDuck point this out.

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  33. Nope, old people have no effect on the economy

    Hahahahahahahahahah! Right! They just start to severely draw down an nation’s savings pool…but that has no effect according to Weapons Dumbass Engineer!

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  34. Yes, there is. What there is no correlation is in the blatantly false comparisons you use to prove who the total dumbass on here truly is, that’s all.

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  35. Wealth comes from technology not population.

    Another dumbass who doesn’t know basic economics.

    Wealth comes from production. Anything that interferes with that — including natural as well as artificial barriers to production such as restricted/missing consumption and hashes the saving rate interferes with wealth creation.

    Instantly they would be able to use these robots to build high speed rail, massive sky scrapers, infrastructure, these robots will churn out every consumer good possibly and Somalians would have the highest standards of living

    Nope. Because they need engineers, architects, medical researchers, etc. to program the robots to build all of those things. In other words, they would have a definite barrier to production even with those wonder toys. And Somalia (YOUR dumbass choice of an example country to use, not mine) definitely lacks in all those.

    Whether China ages or has more babies has no effect on GDP

    You’ve already proven who the real dumbass on here is. Care to keep going?

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  36. As a study by the RAND Corporation concludes, “Barring catastrophe, the United States appears likely to have the demographic and economic resources to remain the world’s indispensable nation through at least 2050.”

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  37. Yes they did it a lot now some are waking up to reality and in a few years those predicting China overtaking US will be in a minority. The reality is true China GDP growth is not 6.5 but less than 5% an decelerating. The chance of recession is increasing and demographics make longer term GDP growth that can complete with US impossible.

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  38. Never thought I’d be using it in a post but here it is: LOL!

    I actually did laugh out loud.

    It’s the only possible response to a response so full of nonsense. You can find any numbers you want on the internet. If you were serious, then learn to tell real numbers from imaginary numbers. Okay?

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  39. You have a point, DrPat. I generously assumed that he was thinking in terms of earning money for the retirement, but I see now that he was actually thinking about storing “things”…

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  40. But gaucho25 does make valid point, don’t you think? Even if you are not german, right? Merkel has done dammage to Germany and the problems of migrants will not be ameliorated for decades to come. At best…

    And turning off nuclear plants was stupidity on a high level. That and the ineffectual “Energiewende” has pushed up the price of electricity sky high and many people cannot afford it any more…

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  41. Could happen in a dictatorship. Or what about forcing/paying women to have children being brought up by orphanages? Like a baby factory..? As you said, if the state is willing to do anything….

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  42. You need will AND the ability to implement said will.

    Will and no ability and you have the New Green Deal

    Ability and no will and you have modern Europe

    No will and no ability and you have Somalia

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  43. Jan,
    The guy is talking about building up huge warehouses full of food and cars and storing it for decades until you are 90 years old and feasting on 30 year old Pizza and driving an antique car.

    At some point you have to assume that the person you are wasting your time debating is not going to respond to sensible arguments.

    Given some of the comments on this site, I’m not sure that “person” isn’t giving them too much credit. Computers HAVE passed the Turning test if they are allowed to pretend to be obnoxious, nonsensical and fixated on certain topics.

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  44. That “Russia runs out of young men to be soldiers in 5 years” has been floating around for… 5 years now.

    I think they have 2 months left to conquer half of Europe.

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  45. Having a lot of start ups is not meaningless..
    With your argument with a high IQ alone These countries should be outperforming, yet due to systemic issues, low birth rate Japan and Italy are moving a bit slower than the flow, China, with similar issues, is likely to share a similar fate.

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  46. Yep and at the rate crime has increased and the women cannot walk on the streets alone at night you will soon exceed the US crime rates. BTW with that moron you made chancellor who killed all the nuclear pants without a way to compensate should be jailed. They also control the crime statistics and refuse to identify the nationally so “Crime we an’t got no crime”. Germany in 10 years will be a place people want to move from. Go on fool with your WW2 guilt and destroy your nation.

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  47. Thank you! The last thing I need is a virtue signaling SJW who thinks he has the whole truth from his SJW communist teacher who filled their heads with BS. Yep the 1100 sexual assaults in Cologne Germany on New Years eve by a bunch of north Africans who just claim they are 17 to avoid jail. All you need to do is watch 10 North Africans drag a helpless woman into a tunnel to rape her to be angry enough to spit in the face of a SJW. They are so much in control of the media and the police that Germans cannot defend their women and children from rape.

    So the SJWs want to take our guns since the vast amount of murders are committed in black communities with hand guns with black on black violence Just like they took guns in London England and now the rate of murders exceeds NY using knives instead. Now they want to ban knives with pointy ends. I kid you not.

    Yes there are differences between racial groups and taking away the honors of the man who invented genetics because he blasphemed against the SJW bible does not make you right. It makes you a communist political officer like those in Russia that banned belief in genetics for animal husbandry and plants. That political BS put Russia behind 30 years. Maybe I will lose social points like China and be banned from public transportation or even jailed for not being PC enough. The two things you low life’s want to take away is freedom of speech and guns so we cannot resist the reeducation camps.

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  48. How about highly intelligent, test-tube babies with a special gene for submission to authority. If you are willing to do anything to catch up, you might as well shoot for the moon.

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  49. Wrong again. You can’t actually store everything that is needed in a society. Just think about healthcare; you cannot bottle it until you need it. So, if only 1/5:th of the population is working, but you have more than 100% demand for healthcare, five times higher percent of the youthful (i.e. below 80 years in my example) will have to work in the healthcare sector compared to when most are young. The same is true for all of the service industry, which makes up about 80% of the employment in the USA [1]. Again, you cannot “store” services…

    So why cannot the elderly save money, and hire foreign work to do the services? Well, since that would equate to immigration, and the immigrants get old themselves and then require more labor immigration in turn. I.e., that would be the same old ponzi scheme that doesn’t work.

    (1) https://www.statista.com/statistics/270072/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-the-united-states/

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  50. The liberals are refusing to implement a immigration plan similar to Canada

    there is no hope in the future of iq tests for prospective immigrants

    the 3rd world flood to the US cannot be stopped

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  51. Yes, Somalis are not bushmen. And yes, bushmen will survive when civilization fails. Third, Somalis are not – in general – very good in high tech societies. Abysmal income in the USA (average about 10K per year), only 30 percent work one hour or more in Norway, overrepresented in crime whereever they go. And so on and so on.

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  52. Are you seriously comparing silicon valley and shenzhen to bangalore?

    All your article says is that they have a lot of startups which is meaningless

    Japan, SK are both doing fine

    Italy is not poor, their economy is not as strong because of government corruption

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  53. Nope, old people have no effect on the economy

    a person is born and then they produce stuff until they retire

    the stuff they produce in their youth supports their retirement

    that 80% of old people all worked in their youth, building cars, growing crops and now the country has warehouses full of these things that they can now give to the old

    The only exception is when you have ponzi social security type schemes where all of the wealth produced aka warehouses full of food, clothes, etc… go into the hands of the 1% and the 80% of old people will now starve

    Which is what we are seeing in the US right now, the Government is being looted all the tax dollars, social security etc have been looted and the wealth transferred into a handful of people and now social security is going to run out

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  54. population of finland vs population of somalia

    gdp of somalia vs gdp of finland

    theres no correlation between population and wealth

    the correlation is between technology and wealth which is why tiny countries that are high tech are hundreds of times wealthier than high population 3rd world shitholes

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  55. Buddy compare the population of Finland to the population of Somalia

    Now compare the GDP’s

    No correlation between population and GDP

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  56. @Humberttheman
    “China has a population…”. Since you are not rebutting anything I claim with your comment, I beleive that you replied to the wrong comment.

    So, instructions for you: press reply on the button below the comment that you wish to disprove or support.
    Not somewher else! I know that this is radical, but try it, wi’ll ya!

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  57. Megacities arise naturally from local governments urbanisation of farmland in a spiral growth pattern outward from the dying original central nucleus. With several such nuclear to spiral growth patterns meeting in the middle you have voila a megacity hurray.

    This is the only way local governments can thrive via new construction while in 15 years previous new construction collapses. Just keep building so taxes can be taken on new construction. Turning farmland into megacities for easy fun and profitable governance. Pay no attention to the ghost develoments and crumbling rubble after early expiration date of chinese construction. Just look at the carefully constructed growth numbers in awe, look on them and wonder!

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  58. Yes, China growth now below US according to Chinese e conomist. Sad to grow old before growing rich, but when you are just faking capitalism it catches up to you eventually.

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  59. Yes, China growth proven to be about 1.7 to 1.8 % now. Quite a comedown . But you know state owned enterprises will join with shadow banks to revive the moribund dragon. You just know they will.

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  60. I hope chinese population will go down to 0.2 billion, so next generations of chinese can be rich in average. Aging is a financial problem for coming ten or twenty years. This can be solved, such as no subsidized medical care provided for old (>80 years old) people with cancer. We have to change our culture, let us die naturally.

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  61. GDP is adjusted for inflation…
    Here is a review of India huge Hi tech scene..
    https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-06/indias-silicon-valley-bangalore-fast-becoming-serious-global-player
    Despite the High IQ Korea, Japan, and China were some of the poorest countries in the world till recently. Japan has been falling back and China has not fully developed the framework to continue progressing fast. If anything, it is following Japan trajectory, but lower. By the way the country with the highest IQ in Europe is Italy, but their economy is in the mid lower tier.

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  62. Even if they started turning out 10 brats per couple RIGHT NOW…it won’t change those demographic figures cited for the 2030s…AT ALL.

    China needed to grow rich before it grew too old. It failed to do so.”

    Well, true, no child born now will have entered the work force by 2030, but will it also have gotten so bad in this time frame? The age groups of the age pyramid will have marched up another 11 years, so the question is if it “tapers” so much that the age distribution will be markedly different by then. If the next 10 age cohorts to enter the work force are only slightly smaller than the preceding ones, the economic effect will not be dramatic. And the new policies about children will change the long term outlook of China.

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  63. No, you are wrong. The population age distribution *does have* an effect. Just consider if 80% of the population were above 80 years of age. You would then have – assuming quite fairly that people over 80 years of age don’t work – only one working person for every four dependents. And that is not counting the children. In such a society, it’s hard to sustain a high standard of living. In general, if the population grows older, then this alone will result in a shrinking per capita economy. Think about it.

    Please notice, however, that immigration *is not* a solution to such a problem. Immigration is – at best – a ponzi scheme where you have to import ever greater numbers to sustain the age distribution. Furthermore, if the immigrants have low education and come from low productivity cultures, it’s a loss from the very beginning.

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  64. The problem is that without immigrants we are dead since our population will crater. With immigrants we at least have a chance to survive if we made an effort to assimilate and educate them.

    By the way most of the European immigrants that came to America were uneducated and it took time for them to be assimilated.

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  65. It would be a waste of my time to explain why your statement are racist since I don’t think you have the capacity to understand reason.

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  66. Two things. One Somalis are not bushmen. And bushmen have survived for hundreds of thousands of years. When civilization falls they will live while the rest of us dies.

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  67. To change require both the willingness to change and the willingness to allow the change to happen. That is not China.

    And the idea that China will continue to grow forever at the rate of 6% to 10% annually is not going to happen. Eventually there will be a recession because no economy has ever growing forever.

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  68. Your argument appears to be some that some high IQ people, the good ones, are coming in with the dregs. How about an IQ kiosk at ports of entry? Pass the test and your in.

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  69. “Another dumbass who thinks Population = Economic growth”

    It is hard to have economic growth in the midst of a shrinking population. You need to have corresponding increases in productivity to offset the reduction of people. Japan is betting on this, so far the results are not quite there.

    It is hard to have economic growth when the numberof older, elderly, retired, non-producing, illness prone members of society grows relative to the number of younger, productive members of society. Money spent taking care of the elderly (either spent by their kids or by The State) is money that is not spent on other ends that actually produce economic growth.

    Just because you can conjure up a way to decouple population from infrastructure using Unicorn Magic is no reason to overlook the very real economic consequences of aging populations in the real world.

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  70. A human being is a “self replicating nanotechnology robot” albeit an inefficient one. That is why there is positive correlation between population and wealth. But even if Somali’s had those amazing versions of “self replicating nanotechnology robots” you postulated above, I sincerely doubt they have the cooperativeness, social trust and intelligence to construct skyscrapers or material projects with such abstract functions as infrastructure embody. The eternal war would continue, more efficiently than before.

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  71. How am I wrong?

    Look at the people the US is importing, they aren’t importing geniuses

    Almost all the population growth in the US are coming from Mexicans running over the border having babies on US soil and thus gaining US citizenship and then becoming legals and bringing over their entire extended families thru family reunification visas

    Around 70% of the immigrants per year are illegals bringing over their extended families 15% are refugees and diversity visa lottery winners

    Only around 10% are employment based, and half of this 10% are europeans who are planning to return to europe, in fact the vast bulk of employment based greencards are people from developed countries who want dual citizenship

    Furthermore all of these illegals and refugees and family members of these 2 groups will all end up having 3-5 kids

    Anne Coulter, read her book Adios America

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  72. Mexico’s GDP growth was 2% for the entire year of 2018

    Inflation was 1.66% for 2018

    SO no they are not growing, they shrunk in 2018 and their economy has been stagnant for decades

    Remember GDP growth rate needs to be HIGHER than inflation to grow

    And India’s high tech sector is non existent, there are a grand total of ZERO operational semiconductor fabrication plants in India, Zero noteable India tech companies

    The entire tech industry is foreign companies opening small regional offices

    And the free market is not necessarily a good thing, this is a myth

    Economic growth and the creation of technology comes primarily from a countries ability to find smart people, train them and then give them the resources for them to produce technology.

    The free market does this pretty well but it is not optimal, the free market also spreads garbage like twerking, rappers encouraging kids to drop out and sell drugs, freemium mobile games designed to get people addicted, suck up their time and money

    In China anyone no matter how poor, can go to a top university if they have the brainpower, and they can put this brainpower to good use by getting funding from the government

    And the statistics back this

    This is the basis of economic growth not the free market which advocates letting anyone produce anything they want and sell anything they want

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  73. You mean, they’ll *reform?*

    Nah.
    It’s not about stealing tech, or whether old people can innovate, or any of that other junk. It’s reform. If China wants to match and exceed the US in anything other than Soviet-style state-sponsored hollow projects, it has to reform. Totalitarian physiocracy is not the way of the future.

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  74. India has a POPULATION problem. They are growing yes but their population of uneducated unhealthy resulting in low IQ work force NOT compatable with modern technology is growing fast. Watch what happens as self driving is established in the US with 20% of the male work force employed as drivers.

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  75. WRONG the US has growth but take a bunch of uneducated low IQ people with third world morals and you have a disaster. Just ask Germany and Sweden. They imported a million African refugees who do not speak the language and are uneducated and probably very low avergae IQ (piss off then explain to me why there are no Asian in the 50 /100/1000 meter runs in the Olympics) who have a culture incompatible with the west and are going on welfare. America works when you import hard working people of compatible cultures in limited numbers and these days with high skills/education.

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  76. India has a big high tech sector, the examples you gave do not indicate in anyway which way India will go. Mexico by the way is growing very nice for a long time and is on the way to become a developed country. IQ is important, it is very high in Russia, Italy and Argentina, but with bad policies and market structure it does not go very far. China market is not free enough to leap to the next level and with the current system it will not get any freer.

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  77. China will continue to grow because when you look at the top academics in numerous fields they are dominated by chinese scientists and these numbers are rising every year.

    A culture that values education and hardwork combined with the naturally high IQ means you have a lot of people capable of doing technology

    The US on the otherhand is steeped in anti intellectualism and is rapidly being displaced by illegal immigrants from 3rd world countries

    Outside of a small handful of gifted schools the vast majority of the kids of america will fail to ever comprehend basic physics and calculus

    The vast majority of the engineers and scientists are all imported

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  78. The reason why they stopped growing is because of IQ and education.

    The people in countries like Mexico, Argentina etc etc etc generally don’t care for education, don’t care for research, there are very few geniuses little to no research, no innovation, very high crime and corruption

    Economics and technology goes hand in hand

    10,000 years ago humans were poor because they had no technology, they had to make everything by hand, and the goods they produced were limited to things like fur, salt, spears etc…

    GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced

    Later on people figured out how to make things like swords, armor, they figured out crop rotation, fertilizer etc….

    Extremely poor countries grow rapidly because they are basically starting out in the stone age and it is very easy to start climbing up the technology tree. And producing goods of higher value.

    Imagine a African village whose primary good of production is crops. They grow crops by hand. They get money to buy better and better tools and eventually they have tractors. The amount of crops they produce is now 100x greater per person. This is year upon year of economic growth and GDP per capita has now increased 100 times

    This in a nutshell is why countries like Mexico, Brazil, Phillipines etc… all grew rapidly and then stopped growing.

    So India getting 6% growth is not impressive and countries like Mexico, Brazil, Phillpines etc… all grew faster when they were at 2k gdp per capita

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  79. China’s currency can not go to pre trade war level because trade war has achieved Trump’s plan of weakening China’s relative position. Will be lucky if stayed at the current level. I have been predicting that China will not ever overtake US for years before anyone else in the media ever mentioned it.

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  80. You did not tell why it has to happen. I think that if they keep opening their economy while working to reduce the inequality gap, keep their books balanced but still invest wisely public money on education and advancing their economy it won’t. It is also up to us in the West to help integrate India into the network of Western societies. I see China as a country that has been moving very fast and is now coming to a halt. It is very typical for post communist planned economy countries. They are probably heading to a breakdown. It will bring a lot of havoc but there is no choice. We should actually continue working toward destabilizing China. We should also make our share in helping shape what comes after that.

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  81. Having a high growth rate means nothing when you are starting from such a low base

    Numerous countries in Africa, South East Asia and South America had higher growth rates like 10% when they were at the level of India today in per capita terms

    They were growing faster than India when they eventually stopped and ended up stuck at around 10k per capita.

    This is most likely the same case with India they will grow quickly but their economy will stall around 5k-10k per capita

    When China had 2k per capita (2006) they were growing at 13%

    When India had 2k per capita (2017) they were growing at 6.6%

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  82. A little reality check here: next year, 500,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of American kids.

    There will be more drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, hungry and imprisoned people in America than in China. 

    Five years later, America’s relative position will look like this:

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  83. Another dumbass who thinks Population = Economic growth

    Wealth comes from technology not population.

    If Somalia invented say a self replicating nanotechnology robot that could be reprogrammed to produce anything in the blink of a eye by reassembling molecules

    Instantly they would be able to use these robots to build high speed rail, massive sky scrapers, infrastructure, these robots will churn out every consumer good possibly and Somalians would have the highest standards of living

    They would jump from one of the poorest and worst countries to live in to living better than scandinavians

    Whether China ages or has more babies has no effect on GDP

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  84. There is nothing wrong with censoring information, information must be censored because bad information is like a disease.

    See communism, one idiot wrote a book and other idiots read it.

    The end result, billions dead and decades of failed economic growth

    If Xi Jinping was in charge and existed and he killed Karl Marx and banned his books, both China and the USSR would be better off.

    As a people we should support censorship and support dictatorships.

    Now in the west boys are chopping off their dicks and wearing dresses, mass importing muslim terrorists and somali refugees and the handful of smart people are powerless against the mass of idiots

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  85. What a dumb article, the author automatically assumes that population = GDP

    And that China can never catch up because the US’s population is skyrocketing while China’s population is shrinking

    The US has a GDP per capita of 60k, so every new american will produce 60k, take a bunch of somali bushmen and magically plop them into the US and they will produce 60k worth of value without fail

    And it assumes that all humans in the world are equally innovative

    When the reality is GDP is determined solely by factors like IQ, race and crime.

    Scandinavian countries are wealthier than many countries that have larger population because they have high quality people and Somalia is poor because they have low quality people.

    Somalia has what 15 million people? vs Finlands 5 million?

    Yet their economies are 252 billion vs 7 billion

    China will dominate the world because they have quality people, this is backed by IQ scores and crime rates

    The US is doomed, while the US will grow faster in population this population is primarily of low quality individuals. The vast bulk of the population growth is coming from illegals and anchor babies.

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  86. We can kind of see Russia’s actions in Crimea. They know within 5 years, they neither have the manpower or resources to have that buffer lost during the Cold War from NATO.

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  87. I agree with this prognosis. Not likely to overtake US even in longer term. Demographics is a big part of it as well as economic structure.  US has freer a

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  88. I agree with this prognosis.  I always states similar case of China possibly catching up in 20 years or so but not likely to overtake the US.

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  89. Even if they started turning out 10 brats per couple RIGHT NOW…it won’t change those demographic figures cited for the 2030s…AT ALL.

    China needed to grow rich before it grew too old. It failed to do so.

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  90. India has the potential, yes. Better than China does. But it probably won’t reach it because of limiting factors that Japan or even China did not have because of US support of global trade.

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  91. China Has the Will to Totally Change to Get Economic Growth

    China’s leadership and society is willing to do more things to achieve faster economic growth. 

    What crack pipe have you been smoking, Brian?

    Xi and the rest of the Party has but the brakes on the needed next stage of reforms and they are even reversing other ones already achieved.

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  92. Nextbigfuture disagrees and believes that the will of China’s leadership and population to adopt innovation and to make whatever changes are needed to cities and business will not diminish

    Will has nothing to do with it. Capability to actualize said will does.

    Otherwise, AOC’s New Green Deal and other acts of magical thinking would actually be viable.

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  93. FWIW, Russia realized it had a demographics problem in the early 2000s, tried to do something about it, and failed miserably.

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  94. China GDP will eventually bypass America and so will India, there is no way around it as the world population mass center is in Asia. Both Europe and America are a quick historical aberration on this basic fact. Our duty though is to make sure that growth in India is accelerated via favorable trade and defense deals so eventually between this two India takes the lead. India with its plural democracy and opening market is a true heir to what has been achieved in the West while China is a symbol to what has failed.

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  95. I don’t really see Brians point. China will, what, create megacities to ensure growth..? That’s it? It is also interesting that apparently nobody thinks that China can turn their demographics around.

    The almighty communist party could make exorbant economic incentives for parents to have more kids, so what’s the snag? Imagine making all 5 kid parents tax exempt for life..? Wouldn’t that spur the nativity of China?

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  96. I think it has been repeatedly demonstrated that some reforms of the Party system are off the table, and indeed have regressed toward the less than stellar Mao era. Economic growth is what they want, but they seem unwilling to let their companies float on the free market and even go so far as to order espionage of their competition. until this behavior changes its going to limit their global market share. low value goods are going to get fairly stiff competition from emerging economies like India and High value or added value markets are currently unwilling to accept unfair economic practices. So, while china may be willing to turn its own citizens upside down for the sake of progress…they’re going to need to learn that you can’t piss off your customers and expect them to call you emperor.

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  97. My own figures suggest the 84% is way overoptimistic.

    Still, I don’t wish them poorly (at least not if they ever manage to stop censoring everything, including Winnie the Pooh, start playing fair, and stop stealing everyone’s information, to include my own personal records).

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  98. part of the China’s strength has been that they don’t need any other country except to buy their exports… they don’t want to import anything except raw materials and knowledge… they purposely planned it that way from the start because they know it makes all the other countries weak and themselves stronger… so while the rest of world is chopping down their rainforests, removing their mountains and selling farm products all the higher value products made out of those things roll off the assembly line for export… with the rich counties sell the products of poor countries instead… the raw materials… and knowledge because it has no value with out a product behind it…

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  99. China needs to do whatever it takes to stay China.
    Economic growth has slowed to between 1 and 2 %.
    And, they remain a country that imports 50% of the
    calories consumed.

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