Space Gets 100 Times Cheaper By 2023 and We Will Get Moon Bases and More

If SpaceX gets a fully reusable Super Heavy Starship flying to orbit in 2020 and then has 100 fully reusable flights by 2023 then the cost of space will drop by 100 times. This will start fulfilling the plans for lunar bases, lunar mining, and space-based solar power.

If each Super Heavy Starship costs $300 million and has $1 million in operating and maintenance cost per flight then the per flight cost is $4 million. Super Heavy Starship is supposed to launch about 100 tons to orbit.

Assuming that 800 Starlink satellites are launched by April 2020, then SpaceX will start doubling its revenue from $2-3 billion to $5-6 billion in 2020 and ten billion in 2021. This will mean that SpaceX will be able to afford to build dozens of Super Heavy Starships.

Philip Metzger as analyzed the cost of getting fuel to any orbit is made cheaper by sourcing water from the moon.

It will be trivial to create a lunar mining operation with a 100-ton fully reusable SpaceX super heavy starship. This will further reduce fuel costs by 5 to 10 times for orbits beyond low earth orbit.

Single-use SpaceX rockets have costs in the $1500 to 2000 per kilogram range. The reuse of first stages can bring SpaceX costs to about half their current costs. However, SpaceX will not drop prices that much without higher volumes and more price competition.

The lower costs will make it easy to develop significant space based solar power.

In capital markets, low latency is the use of algorithmic (programmed) trading to react to market events faster than the competition to increase the profitability of trades. In 2007 a large global investment bank has stated that every millisecond lost results in $100 million per year in lost opportunity.

Laser light communication in a vacuum is physically 45% faster than communication through a fiber.

SpaceX will start generating substantial revenue in 2020 equal or slightly exceeding launch revenue. This was based upon 2017 SpaceX revenue projections from a 2017 Wall Street Journal article.


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