Tesla Path to 5 Million Vehicles per Year by 2025

Another financial analyst has published that Tesla will be able to ramp to huge sales levels in China. Piper analyst Alexander Potter said that if Tesla’s Model 3 market share in the United States can be replicated in China (and for the Model Y) then Tesla’s annual volume in China alone would eventually exceed 650k units.

In December, 2019, Nextbigfuture noted and agreed with a statement that China car sales for BMW and Mercedes are double their US Car sales. Doubling US sales volume for premium cars would enable Tesla to sell 700,000 to 1 million model 3s each year and around 2 million model Ys.

Tesla grabbing pickup Truck and large SUV market share with Cybertruck and Cybertruck SUV and van variants would enable sales of another 3+ million.

Tesla will be able ramp more factories China, Asia, United States and Europe.

Tesla should still be able to grow 50-80% per year with more factories and expanded factories and new vehicles.

2019   367000
2020   700000
2021  1100000
2022  1600000
2023  2500000
2024  3200000
2025  5000000
2026  7000000
2027  9000000

Tesla has a clear path to 5 million per year sales by 2025 and over 10 million by 2028.

NOTE : Writer Brian Wang of Nextbigfuture is a shareholder in Tesla

6 thoughts on “Tesla Path to 5 Million Vehicles per Year by 2025”

  1. The same basic design with some panel changes at the rear is a standard luxury 4WD wagon which are all over the roads in the big Chinese cities.

  2. You have to keep in mind that the growth is exponential, not linear. This article may be a little conservative in it’s prediction.

  3. pickup trucks (cybertruck etc.) or only popular in north america. the car market in china is slowing so i cant be too optimistic with these predictions.

  4. You are far to optimistic. Tesla will of course continue to grow, but not that fast.
    You realize Ford sold under 2.5 million vehicles last year, and you think Tesla will be bigger then Ford in ~3 years, and bigger then GM just ~4 years after that?!

    Tesla is sitting good, but every year it’s competition is going to get better & better as well.

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