Tesla has 80-90% of the electric vehicle market share in the USA. The traditional carmakers have failed to make good electric cars. This seems likely to continue for another three years. The cars that have been announced will not get ahead of the vehicles that Tesla will be making.
All of the new electric vehicles that will be introduced in the next two to three years from other carmakers have inferior specifications to the improved vehicles that Tesla will be making. Tesla should continue to dominate and is extending its technological lead in electric vehicles.
Tesla’s domination in unit sales would then only require building more factories and expanding existing factories and the introduction of a wider offering of vans, SUVs and trucks.
There is a new range and price competitive vehicle in China from Xpeng, the Xpeng P7. Xpeng raised $400 million in 2019 and has Xiaomi as a strategic investor. Xpeng will need to scale up its manufacturing and continue to innovate and improve its vehicles.
In mid-2020, Tesla will have 200,000 cars per year of production in China. In May Telsa sold 11,000 electric cars in China. At 200,000 cars per year, Tesla would have 16,666 cars per month. If China matched July 2019 EV sales of 80,000 then Tesla would have about 20% of the China EV market.
If Tesla expands the Shanghai Gigafactory to match the production at Fremont in 2021 then they would make 500,000 cars per year. This would be 41,666 cars per month.
In 2021-22, if Tesla demand in Europe and China is only constrained by production then the Berlin gigafactory and the China gigafactory could help Tesla to reach half of its 80% market share potential.
If Tesla is able to rapidly scale a Texas Terafactory and have another two factories in Asia and China then Tesla could capture 80% of an expanded global electric vehicle market in 2022-2023. If other carmakers cannot make better electric vehicles then Tesla will expand its market share in China, Asia and Europe to North America EV market share levels of 80-90%. This could be 4.5 million Tesla’s per year out of 6 million EVs in 2023.
Tesla would be in the range of being an overall top 8 global carmaker around 2023.
Another 50% expansion in 2024 to 6.8 million cars would mean Tesla could move into fifth place for overall global car production.
Another 50% expansion in 2025 to 10.2 million cars would mean Tesla would be competing with Toyota and VW to be the largest global car maker.
SOURCES- Tesla, CAAM, CNBC, Cleantechnica
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)