Tesla has 80-90% of the electric vehicle market share in the USA. The traditional carmakers have failed to make good electric cars. This seems likely to continue for another three years. The cars that have been announced will not get ahead of the vehicles that Tesla will be making.
All of the new electric vehicles that will be introduced in the next two to three years from other carmakers have inferior specifications to the improved vehicles that Tesla will be making. Tesla should continue to dominate and is extending its technological lead in electric vehicles.
Tesla’s domination in unit sales would then only require building more factories and expanding existing factories and the introduction of a wider offering of vans, SUVs and trucks.
There is a new range and price competitive vehicle in China from Xpeng, the Xpeng P7. Xpeng raised $400 million in 2019 and has Xiaomi as a strategic investor. Xpeng will need to scale up its manufacturing and continue to innovate and improve its vehicles.
In mid-2020, Tesla will have 200,000 cars per year of production in China. In May Telsa sold 11,000 electric cars in China. At 200,000 cars per year, Tesla would have 16,666 cars per month. If China matched July 2019 EV sales of 80,000 then Tesla would have about 20% of the China EV market.
If Tesla expands the Shanghai Gigafactory to match the production at Fremont in 2021 then they would make 500,000 cars per year. This would be 41,666 cars per month.
Global electric vehicle sales could reach 3 million in 2021.
There should be about 800,000 electric cars sold in europe in 2020.
In 2021-22, if Tesla demand in Europe and China is only constrained by production then the Berlin gigafactory and the China gigafactory could help Tesla to reach half of its 80% market share potential.
If Tesla is able to rapidly scale a Texas Terafactory and have another two factories in Asia and China then Tesla could capture 80% of an expanded global electric vehicle market in 2022-2023. If other carmakers cannot make better electric vehicles then Tesla will expand its market share in China, Asia and Europe to North America EV market share levels of 80-90%. This could be 4.5 million Tesla’s per year out of 6 million EVs in 2023.
Tesla would be in the range of being an overall top 8 global carmaker around 2023.
Another 50% expansion in 2024 to 6.8 million cars would mean Tesla could move into fifth place for overall global car production.
Another 50% expansion in 2025 to 10.2 million cars would mean Tesla would be competing with Toyota and VW to be the largest global car maker.
SOURCES- Tesla, CAAM, CNBC, Cleantechnica
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Explain to me which manufacturer’s car dealerships are really pushing to sell EV’s? Tesla doesn’t even need a dealership network…
How long did you wait for Amazon to make a profit? What’s their market cap?…
It is called the growth CURVE – exponential vs. straight line…
How many models of iPhones are there? And what is Apple’s market cap?
Cybertruck, (just called the pickup before that), is not going slowly…or we wouldn’t know if it was. The Semi on the other hand was reveled in Nov 2017, and mentioned in the 2016 master plan. Late 2018 they still were working on the Cybertruck concept. And its revel was not until Nov 2019. I don’t think we can call it late yet. Especially if they actually start making these in 2021. That would actually be a very fast development. Motorcycles usually take 3 years and autos 4-5 years. If they have these coming out of the factory next year…that is just 3 years.
well it could be in tulsa still too
Well, they will be at a rate of more than 1 million cars before the end or 2021. They may even be at a rate of 1 million cars per year before the end of 2020….
I was under the impression that people buy Jaguars or Audis despite their electrical systems, not because of them.
If the whole car is an electrical system…
It was actually Matt Farah’s review that I was thinking of the most.
As I mentioned before: if any existing car company has the combined technical, financial, design and reputational resources to make a better EV than Tesla, it would be Porsche (backed by the whole VAG group).
OK, maybe Lexus too.
Yes, Tesla is dragging their feet on the Semi as well as the Cybertruck. It makes you wonder what problems exist at Tesla.
The dealers in my state don’t want to sell EVs. I’ve never seen an EV at all, let alone find one on a dealer lot.
Texas Terafactory – A lot of talk, but no action. When is the groundbreaking ?
I am a Tesla fan but this 2025 top maker thing is not really possible…certainly in number of cars sold. Tesla has too few models. They just will not appeal to everyone even if range went up to 700 miles. It takes years to develop models. Toyota makes 60+ models. And the more of one model is made, the less the appeal to drive the same thing everyone else is driving. I am not saying that dynamic is happening right now, but with millions of Teslas on the road, it will. Also, when they do start making more models, they will have the dynamic of new models cannibalizing sales of existing models. These things slow down a car maker and make getting to the top a long process.
Add to that, that while they are ahead in electric cars in general, other makers have been working hard where Tesla is not. There are at least 5 makers working on electric delivery vans. Other companies are working hard on Semis too. The Tesla Semi may not be the first to market. They are dragging their feet too much on this. If the Roadster delays the Semi…it is a mistake. The new Roadster is a move too far to the high end. That is going backward and wasting engineer talent and manufacturing space. They need a more economical 2-seater convertible. They need a modestly roomy muscle car (blue collar affordable not so suave car). They need a family van and/or a roomy minivan. $100k Model X is not affordable. And just making a smaller version does the fit the needs of families.
Yep, competitors aren’t standing still. They will be coming with similar but cheaper products.
And that’s good. We don’t need monopolies, be it from Tesla or any other.
These projections are so outlandish it’s almost comical. How do you expect Tesla to increase their production capacity by 10 fold in less than 4 years (until 2025). It took them 20 years to reach the current 1million(ish) capacity (once the Shanghai and Berlin factories are in full operation).
A lot of manufacturers have also struggled to ramp production, largely due to the lack of control of their supply chains. I suspect Tesla may be adding as much EV capacity as the rest of the industry combined, each year.
Sure, but it’s not yet enough to dismiss the still massive advantage that older mfg’s have over Tesla in many regards. TBC
Both Rich Rebuilds’ and Matt Farah’s reviews make it impossible to simply discount the Taycan like the above article seems to. It may be just a foot in the door for only Porsche, so maybe it’s nothing but maybe it’s the calm before the storm.
30 000 orders for the Porsche. They are just being slow in ramping up production.
Was coming to ask this. The reports I’ve seen have the Porsche being better, as a high priced, prestige, high performance car, than the Teslas.
Though this is admittedly a niche market. It does disprove the absolute claim that
Waiting for TSLA to show a legitimate profit without schemes like $100M+ annual income from selling federal “emissions credits” to other auto companies, or state/federal purchase tax credits. And what happens to sales when a mileage tax is imposed on EVs to cover their fair share of the costs to maintain our public roads?
No one is buying them? They sold under 1400 in Q1. Porsche is an incredibly niche brand that is aiming at a market segment above Model S/X. Tesla is more mass market.
People don’t care about brand until they find out that the ecosystem around the car for other brands suck. Supercharger network makes a huge difference. And dealers will try very hard not to sell you an EV if you go to another brand. Oh, you want an etron? Let me show you a Q5–it’s much better.
I feel good about Tesla, but when BMW, Mercedes, Jeep, Ford F150s, Audi, and Jag start to roll-out EVs, people will go back to their favourite brand as people don’t look too closely at specs. If Tesla can come cheap enough to outdo Toyota, Honda, Chrysler/Dodge sedans, and other related generica, they can grab market share and make a name for that sector. What about a super-convenient minivan model or actual 4×4 off-road type model? When people buy they don’t think -ah electrified!- they think family, off-road, performance, economical, stylish, etc., like clothes or other ‘personality identifier’. Tesla is doing great, but being the forward-thinking electrical leader is not enough to instantly grab market share. And… so many apartments and other multi-family – these areas are not integrating re-charging facilities fast enough as workplaces and public parking/ malls are not stepping up fast enough.
Explain how the Porsche is a failed good electric car.
So many Ifs… Other EVs cars coming in the markets may not be matching still with of Tesla, but the gap is narrowing compared to that of the current generation, the difference between model Y and model 3 is not as big as that between model 3 and model X which means that the rate of improvement of Tesla is decreasing while the rate that other car companies catching up with Tesla is growing. Car sales are going to decrease from now on as other modes of transportation, work, communication and delivery are in a start of taking a huge leap. That revolution is going to eclypse that of the Electric car and knock off one if after the other.