Reverse Engineering Real Alien Technology Could Take Hundreds of Years

Real aliens would have to travel over four light years to get here. They would outclass our technology by at least 100+ years and probably thousands of years. They would be able to do things with materials that we would not be able to reverse engineer without advanced molecular nanotechnology.

Considering how fast we could reverse engineer highly advanced technology. How fast could an isolated and uninformed country reverse engineer our technology?

We can look at the example of China. China had its first nuclear test in 1964. However, a nuclear fission weapon involves purifying uranium isotopes and getting a critical mass. The US had nuclear weapons in 1945. The first soviet test was 1949. The Soviet Union helped with some initial research, design, and production preparations. However, it later withdrew support at the last minute, and China had to rely on itself to complete the bomb. The Soviet Union was also engaged in test ban negotiations with the United States in 1959 in order to relax Soviet-American tensions, directly inhibiting the delivery of a prototype to China. Broader disagreements between Soviet and Chinese communist ideologies escalated mutual criticism. The Soviets responded by withdrawing the delivery of a prototype bomb and over 1,400 Russian advisers and technicians involved in 200 scientific projects in China meant to foster cooperation between the two countries.

There was Soviet and Chinese spying to uncover the secrets. This was a high priority effort to copy critical weapons technology. Twenty years with a lot of help, constant spying for information and a common base of science and technology.

China did not have a strategic bomber until 2007. China had assistance with bomber technology from the Soviets, Russians and has stolen aviation technology and information from the USA. China also acquired airplane technology from European suppliers. The US had a strategic bomber in 1942. The four engine B29 had 3200 miles of range. 5.4 tons of bomb payload over 1400 nautical miles. The B52 had a combat range of 4000 miles (now 8800 miles with improvements and refueling) and 30 tons of bomb payload. The 2007 Xian H-6 bomber had a range of 3200 nmi and a 12 ton payload. It took about 52 years to get close to the B-52.

China emerged from isolation in 1978. China had to engage with the world and catch up in technology.

It took the Soviets seven years to reverse engineer the US B29 bomber.

Copying the wide-body commercial jets has been far more difficult. There is metallurgy advances. There are complex engines. There are electronics. China has had economic catchup but has not been able to make competitive jet engines and cannot make a competitive wide body jet.

Chip technology is difficult to copy. There are complex lithography machines to be created. There is design software and production software. If it was to be created from scratch then there has to be all of the previous generations of lithography to build the improved computers and equipment to enable the next generation. It seems if there was no factories and spying possible (like copying alien technology) then a copier would need to create a lithography industry.

Seeing something that flies around with capabilities far beyond yours indicates that something is clearly possible. It becomes even more difficult if there are no visible moving parts and the method and mode of operation are unknown.

It took China until 1988 to enter the satellite launching business with a capable rocket. China’s rocket did not get reliable until after 1996. The US had a government contracted launch program starting starting in 1963 to launch commercial satellites. China has been about 25-50 years behind developments in the US Space program. The basic science and technology were well known.

The recent Pentagon acknowledged videos of unidentified aerial phenoma are suggesting that the systems might be leveraging gravity control. We have been trying to get good theories of gravity for many decades. There are no theories that would suggest we could reach capabilities to manipulate gravity.

Why Credible Alien Evidence Might Be Coming Now

The release of this information took the effort of Harry Reid when he was Senate majority leader from 2006 to 2016. Harry Reid had long been interested in UFOs. Two other former senators and top members of a defense spending subcommittee — Ted Stevens, an Alaska Republican, and Daniel K. Inouye, a Hawaii Democrat — also supported the program. Mr. Stevens died in 2010, and Mr. Inouye in 2012.

In 2007, while he was the Senate Majority Leader, he initiated the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program to study unidentified flying objects at the urging of Reid’s friend, Nevada billionaire and governmental contractor Robert Bigelow, and with support from the late senators Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), the program began in the DIA in 2007 and was budgeted $22 million over its five years of operation.

Former Nevada Senator Harry Reid has claimed that defense contractor Lockheed Martin may have had fragments of a crashed UFO in its possession.

Why do we have no record of visits. Any record before 1800 would be myths and magic stories which we could not interpret. Aliens may not have had an extensive interest in monitoring us. We do not visit every ant hill or mold colony on Earth. We are not interesting.

Visual evidence. The Death Star could constantly fly behind Saturn and we would not detect it most of the time. It could orbit Saturn and when would we be able to look at it closely enought to realize…”that’s no moon”. We are mostly blind and deaf to what is out in space. We need to put billions of 1-2 meter telescopes out at 500-1000AU to use gravitational lensing to observe other exoplanets and systems out to 100-1000 light-years in detail. 4 light day missions instead of 4-1000 lights years. After we have had billions of observation scopes map out and analyze atmospheres and surfaces down to 1 mile or lower resolution for a few decades then we will have better data about what is going on.

We could get to a gravitational lensing mission within about 8 years with reasonable concerted effort. A crash program could get to a launch in 4 years. The flight time would be 10-20 years.

The standard of proof for aliens needs to be high.

The weird psyop scenario seems to be discounted because of the time and effort taken by Harry Reid, Ted Stevens and other senators to get information uncovered.

Faked videos and a big prank like Piltdown man seems to not be the case because hundreds of videos over decades.

Secret military technology and operation scenario. This seems difficult to see how technology for 600G acceleration and zero to 13000 mph movement could have been secretly developed. However, this kind of scenario seems more possible than real aliens.

Last on the list is real aliens. If it is aliens then we can do nothing to them and if they do nothing but observe without engaging, we just keep working on better technology.

SOURCES – Wikipedia, The Rising

116 thoughts on “Reverse Engineering Real Alien Technology Could Take Hundreds of Years”

  1. Might be they even stopped Voyager satellites and send messages to us, like Voyager satellites are on their way into extra-solar system, but that would be pretty disappointing to mankind, therefore i didn't write this myself, but maybe ''they' did through me?

  2. Besides previously mentioned ''biases' on (all) our all assumptions, thinking 'we' define what 'they' are (visibility?, measure of space and time?, relation to gravity and all laws of science? …) is like looking behind the event horizon of a black gravity singularity or ''borders' of dimensions of one(?) universe?
    What did we recognize, if we measured 600G acceleration?

    We are even limited with defining a constitution for a 20-50years to come Mars colony and it's rebound effects to Earth for next several hundred years, because mankind doesn't show maturity to overcome problems on Earth (limited matter resources compared to growth idea in economical theories).

    It also might be, we are only observed like in a laboratory and artifacts left, show how much improvement we encountered during even thousands of years? Might be there were even older cultures having more direct contact to visitors, but we even don't understand their folk memory or written tradition anymore, because ''we', the winning group, came as conquerors and destroyed instead of understood? It depends, if one's group was on winner or suppressed side of knowledge also.

  3. I've actually been discussing the natives over the entire new world, including groups like the Inca, Maya and Mexica whom did actually perform serious infrastructure project, irrigation systems etc.

    Though as far as I know, agriculture was fairly widespread even within US territory. Many tribes went "backwards" (from our biased point of view) and abandoned agriculture in favour of returning to hunting when the addition of horses to their toolset made hunting more productive than it had been.

  4. I've since seen an analysis of whether the USS Nimitz (from The Final Countdown) could actually win WW2 by itself. The conclusion was that a direct nuke attack on Japan would work, but trying to do it conventionally they'd just run out of fuel/parts/munitions before the entire Japanese empire ran out of planes and ships.

    They would definitely win the battle of Pearl Harbour however. Even just sending one fighter plane to do a Mach 2 flyover of Pearl in time to get everyone awake and on high alert would probably have made the difference.

    (I cannot remember any particular phrases that would enable finding that drone story, though it's on the web somewhere.)

  5. maybe innovation potential/ success is more about culture and religion/ cultishness. Many/ most pre-1500s cultures are not curious, not supportive of ingenuity or passing along ideas. It seems bizarre that a group would not embrace ideas that improve health, increase productivity, etc — but that's my supposition.

  6. Pretty sure you have it right and we saw the same essay.

    I like the movie "The Final Countdown" about a single "modern" US aircraft carrier being trapped in a strange storm and sent back in time to just before the Pearl Harbor attack (Dec 7, 1941) and having to decide whether or not to change history by annihilating the approaching Japanese fleet. That movie was from 1980 and it is strange to think that the carrier in it was closer in time to the Pearl Harbor attack than we are to that carrier.

  7. I think the major issue is on the economy/demography level: you need to reach a critical mass to justify the social costs of certain investments: romans started relatively early (compared to more mature surrounding civilizations like the greek and egyptian ones) in their development to invest heavily in infrastructures that increased Rome agricultural output and set a positive feedback loop expanding the population and thus allowing to make bigger investments and allocate more manpower to the military.
    In 270 BC (way before the imperial era) Rome was already powerful enough to start enormous land reclamation projects. They drained big swamp lands to fight malaria (and this led to the construction of the Maromre Falls, the biggest artificial waterfall in the world to date) and that allowed the biggest population expansion that skyrocketed Rome to the level of a superpower.

    I think US territories were extended enough to grant groups of hunter gatherers a sufficient level of sustenance, but on the other hand required demographic investments too big for those groups especially in areas where the lack of natural borders would make those investments difficult to defend from other groups of semi nomadic hunter gatherers. If you cannot develop agriculture at a sufficient level, everything else can only be very limited

  8. You do realize that the earth is not only moving around the sun, but the sun is spinning around the center of our galaxy, which in turn is expanding through space along with all other galaxies. Thus the earth in the future is millions of miles from where it is today. A time traveler from future earth would need to travel that same distance to get to today's earth.

  9. The first miracle is that ETs could travel vast distances in space to get to earth. But the most amazing thing is that those super advanced space ships could go down in something as simple as bad weather and allow us to capture them.

  10. The best humans could hope to do is figure out how to turn it on and control it.

    Literally chimps riding bicycles.

  11. The main advantage with reverse engineering and replicate unknown technology is you know something is possible, so you know it can be done in a way or another.

    My favourite example of this is the hydrogen balloon. In the 1780s the Montgolfier Brothers invented the hot air balloon and achieved the first (historically confirmed) human flight.

    Stories about this marvelous breakthrough filtered through to Paris, but in a vague fashion about "Making air that was lighter than air so it floated up…".
    Scientists in Paris heard this vague hand wavy description, thought to themselves "What sort of air is lighter than air? I know, Hydrogen!" and so made themselves a hydrogen balloon. Which worked even better than the hot air version.

    So yes, just knowing that something is possible is sometimes all you need.

  12. Recall reading an essay some twenty years back about a drone that suddenly turned up and fell to Earth around the turn of the century. The author went through and explained what engineers then would think about it all. In the end, the only thing that might have been useful to them in the short term was resistors that didn't rely on wound wires.

    I think the idea of a printed circuit board would be obviously useful, and well within 1900 tech capabilities. But generally I agree.

    (And if it's the essay that I remember, it was a modern drone ending up in the 1930s. A bit later than "turn of the century" but not enough to make a difference.)

    Some time ago I speculated about what different eras would be able to learn from a crashed fighter jet. I concluded that a caveman would learn most from the clothing of the pilot. That's about the only element that could be replicated even approximately using 10 000 BC technology, and the simple idea of trousers, boots, buttons, laces, jackets, sewing etc. would be a major step forward, even if the materials, and even the weaving, had to be dumbed down to the level of animal hides or felts.

  13. If we do have resources I suspect it's much more likely to be chocolate, ginger, conotoxin or other interesting biochemicals than them wanting our water OR our women.

  14. But my point is that the Native Americans had just about the best case scenario.

    • They had hundreds, thousands of samples. Not just one or two.
    • They had hundreds of years, say 1490s to 1890s
    • They had primitive metallurgy worked out before the Europeans turned up (Up to the level of copper and a few hints of early bronze.)
    • They were able to see in operation Mining, smelting, and forging operations.
    • They had dozens, if not hundreds, of different population centres with different cultures. Any particularly stupid cultural barrier shouldn't have applied everywhere.

    If they couldn't do it then it really is very difficult.

  15. We (well, a group of 1940s scientists and engineers in Chicago, not me) built a nuclear reactor in only 2 years, and that was an unambiguously good invention.

    BUT, it depends when you start counting from. Nuclear reactions and radioactive decay themselves were discovered some 50 years previously and had been studied ever since. They didn't start from nowhere.

  16. Perhaps their level of understanding of physics is simply out of this world. Just a thought. Remember our ancestors used to mythologize ancient Gods as powerful beings riding chariots. So the limit of their imagination was right around their level of technology. We are likely falling into the same trap.

    I think it is possible the aliens operate at a level that is yet incomprehensible to us. Perhaps they don't have to have Dyson spheres around their Suns if they mastered the energy in a much more efficient way. Perhaps they do not need motherships to get here if smaller ships can zip in and out of hyperspace and appear at any point of the Universe instantaneously.

    Of course I find the idea of them being from a parallel Universe or higher dimensions possible as well. Regardless of what they are they are technologically so much superior to us that we are just beginning to comprehend. I would still not rule out that these are natural phenomena but that seems increasingly unlikely. We better get used to the idea that we are possibly not the smartest being on Earth.

  17. Perhaps their level of understanding of physics is simply out of this world. Just a thought. Remember our ancestors used to mythologize ancient Gods as powerful beings riding chariots. So the limit of their imagination was right around their level of technology. We are likely falling into the same trap.

    I think it is possible the aliens operate at a level that is yet incomprehensible to us. Perhaps they don't have to have Dyson spheres around their Suns if they mastered the energy in a much more efficient way. Perhaps they do not need motherships to get here if smaller ships can zip in and out of hyperspace and appear at any point of the Universe instantaneously.

    Of course I find your idea of them being from a parallel Universe or higher dimensions possible as well. Regardless of what they are they are technologically so much superior to us that we are just beginning to comprehend. I would still not rule out that these are natural phenomena but that seems increasingly unlikely. We better get used to the idea that we are possibly not the smartest being on Earth.

  18. I think that in order to replicate a certain technology you need to have a comparable technological and economical output. Even if your survival depends on it you will not be able to replicate rifles if you do not have acquired and mastered:

    1) efficient agriculture to allow a big population, part of which could be directed to mining ore
    2) a sufficiently mature mining industry for coal and iron
    3) a sufficiently mature metallurgy to produce produce steel
    4) a sufficiently mature technical and scientific level to start manufacturing tools with the required precision
    5) a sufficiently developed knowledge of chemistry (or pseudo chemistry) and handling of chemicals to produce gunpowder in sufficient quantity.
    6) a sufficiently in-depth operational knowledge of the gun design you have in your hands and that you got from someone else.
    7) an economy big enough to keep all the above steps up and running at the same time while you produce the guns.


  19. They might still stay away, but if we are close together to another civilization it means that, statistically speaking, there should be several more, some younger and some very old. And some of the old ones should be very visible even from the opposite side of the galaxy, even if they do not come and visit us directly. We do not have any evidence for anything like this, not in our galaxy, nor in other galaxies that we observed. Assuming that 1) they exist, 2) they are all decide to hide, 3) they are all very good at hiding, 4) they always have been good at hiding during all the steps of development of their interstellar civilization, 5) or they all decided not do develop an interstellar civilization, but some still come to probe us, it is a series of very strong and specific assumptions. The simplest assumption is that 1) intelligent life is very rare and there is nobody else out there and 2) that the only intelligent life that we know of is not perfect and sometimes makes mistakes and assumes something is an alien while it is not.

  20. If we just happen to be in the territory of one particular species, that's enough for A) them to notice us, and B) others to stay away. You don't have to have many species overall for two to occur nearby. It may be improbable, but not impossible.

  21. would argue war most fervent driver of tech, even more than commercial and government and garage inventors

  22. physicality? specs and languages and messages and data way more of an artifact and exciting potential than finding a miscellaneous doodad in the new mexico desert. Decoding and translating is the best possible 'useful' UFO job.

  23. fewer – tattling is less pervasive and embraced than the InterWebs would have you believe…

  24. until that first message received and returned…
    not all SETI data has been thoroughly reviewed and better stuff/ targets are coming with exo-planet lists lengthening… maybe no-one comes, but many, many will respond – 100 years of chatting before 'first physical contact'

  25. also. sensor tech? Probably can assess and reject interest in our culture, planet, and solar system from 100s of LYs away. Sentient Life (Earth) – data point 5,329,721,888. One sentence Encyclopedia Universale pg 54,219: "Harmless."

  26. huh.. so the printing press, musket, and agriculture would be pre-technological civilization (simply maintaining the current status-quo against pandemics, population surges (up and down), and ongoing insurrection/ war) -and- what would be the first truly technological advances — bringing us early productivity, leisure, advanced health recovery, and gadgets?… steam train, clock, antibiotics (later), telegraph, optics — maybe followed (unequally) by electricity and mechanical (pumps, fans, and motors)…

  27. "… we would be the animals … and them tourists…" more likely that we are the bugs and they're the truck – indifferent, uninterested, and wholly just in their way as they pass through

  28. What I am saying is that we are not a very old and established civilization, so in order to be noticed by aliens the aliens had to be close by. That means that occurrence of life, and in particular, intelligent life capable of interstellar travel, is common, and that means that there are a lot of alien civilizations and that there have been a lot. Some might be secretive, some others might always have been secretive, but assuming that ALL decided that hiding was the topmost priority (while it has not been for any human civilization except few isolated tribes on an indian island or in the amazon forest), is a very strong assumption. We do not see, not only any megastructures, but not even excessive, infrared emission (heat dissipation), radio signals and so on.
    Assuming that everyone is always hidden with perfect stealth tech is the explanation for not detecting anyone is absurd.
    I think it is more reasonable to assume that the condition for intelligent life are extremely rare and that very few civilization might occur in the whole observable region of the universe and probably they do not overlap in time nor last very long. That does not make us necessarily special: if the universe is infinite there will be infinite civilizations, but they will be very far apart. I sincerely believe more in evaluation mistakes than UFOs encounters.

  29. Recall reading an essay some twenty years back about a drone that suddenly turned up and fell to Earth around the turn of the century. The author went through and explained what engineers then would think about it all. In the end, the only thing that might have been useful to them in the short term was resistors that didn't rely on wound wires.

    I've seen UFOs on at least three occasions. Weird stuff, but unidentified does not mean alien.

    1) We are rare so we are alone.
    2) We are first, so we are alone. Not odd at all, if the first race to expand in a galaxy eliminates any chance of other sentient tool-using races coming into existence. Why not? They can't arise on Earth while we are still here.
    3) Reasons 1 and 2, combined.
    4) Others existed, but they died out (every single member of every single race?) so we are alone.
    5) Others existed, but they left so we are alone.
    6) Others exist but they are busy mutilating our cattle — and freaking out our pilots –we would be better off alone.
    7) Others might exist, but so rarely that the odds are they are so far away they will be forever separated by the expanding universe.
    8) Others exist, but are not significantly more advanced than we are (a miracle in a 13.8 billion year old universe if our galaxy has multiple races).
    9) Others exist, but they stay home and play video games.

  30. Yea like 911 Why don't you watch WTC & and tell me exactly what it looks like. But you will not believe your lying eyes.

  31. perhaps. but likely 1/4 or less would think to -or- be comfortable with -or- be of the activist persuasion to whip it out and start documenting – the citizen journalist/ exposer/ investigator is rarer than one thinks…

  32. "…if you've only got one example to examine, you have to avoid destructive testing …" that seems kind of sentimental and more akin to cultural artifacts – unless there are some very specific circumstances going on — you know what the device can do and so do your political adversaries – so you exploit it or hide it before they can get at it … otherwise: definitely not like Raiders of the Lost Ark where they simply cart off the 'box of unknown' into the back of some non-descript multi-acre warehouse for future generations. Most likely that some high level military scientist or corporate-flavoured scientist or politician wants answers and wants them now – so increasingly intrusive testing will naturally provide limited response, which will be unacceptable, and then proceed until it then is disassembled or opened-up destructively or subject to some kind of intensive scan. Better 20% answers now and lose the functionality -than- 50%+ answers in some undefinable time years or generations hence — is what I would guess is typical.

  33. I don't think it could take hundreds of years. Sure, maybe replicating an alien spaceship capable of FTL travel might, but it's not like absolutely *no* technology could be reverse-engineered in 50 years, and even more as our own tools become more capable from the late 1940s to the early 2020s.

  34. agreed. we're likely very ordinary and without significant resources (on a planet or solar system scale) or powerful alliance potential or special introspection into the greater universe. Kind of a backwater burgh, frankly.

  35. Agreed – i think? technology development is a function of the cultural it dwells within. Widespread religious doctrine espousing the old ways? – no tech. No culture of competition (except for over-testosteronated boys) or 'improving our lot' – no tech. No culture of individualism or unique skill development/ division-of-labor (beyond the existing) – no tech. A culture of hand-to-mouth amongst plenty with norms of conserving or not offending the fertility gods – no tech. Hate to say it – but if it wasn't for european/UK protestant culture (and a few isolated entitled scientist-lords)(1550ish – 1750ish), we would still be pre-industrial (though we can't help but keep making better weapons, no matter what? – ho-hum)

  36. The closest we have to super advanced alien technology is biology. How long have we been trying to control that? We can do basic things like train animals, do selective breeding and transplants, but can we make new species, repair aging or grow our own vehicles?

  37. What if the "aliens" are actually some weird lifeform native to the Earth? They are not craft, what we are seeing are their "bodies".

  38. Of course, it is possible that said "beings" are not aliens – at least not in the distant space type. From an alternate dimension? From a Parallel Earth? From a far distant future Earth with said "tech" traveling backward in time?

  39. I'm not really assuming all extraterrestrials would be the same, I'm just open to the possibility that none of them will ever build mega structures. So absence of that particular piece of evidence is not evidence of absence. You're right, though, we do only need to detect one such example to prove that advanced aliens exist – although without direct contact it wouldn't really prove anything. It would simply look highly suspicious. A bit like a blob on an IR camera. In the meantime, the 90% of alien civilisations that didn't bother with such time consuming endeavours may already have overrun Earth.

  40. Any society that lacks the scientific method isn't really a good analogy, though.

    The real issue is that if you've only got one example to examine, you have to avoid destructive testing. And wouldn't necessarily know in advance what tests would be destructive. So you'd have to stick pretty rigorously to passive tests.

  41. They would be so advanced I'm sure they could replicate the surface conditions inside hollow cavities. You should read The Smoky God by Willis George Emerson written in 1908…. It talks about an inner earth civilization that fled the surface of the earth and built great cities linked by an hyper speed mono Rail train system with anti gravity technology….

  42. Yeah they didn’t have the infrastructure at all, nor really any scientific basis. They were behind on a number of levels. It’s like giving a laser pointer to 16th century Europeans. They could turn it on, they would see a crystal and probably get some semblance of how it works. I doubt they would ever build one themselves though even with the example

  43. I’m pretty confident we have theories that can explain how these things actually function. Quantized inertia is a great start imo. Opening your eyes to magnetism inertia and to a certain extent gravity all being basically the same at different scales. You can start to see how an engine could be made quite easily if just setup properly. I mean we see all these anomalies in space and sometimes in the lab, clearly we missing some physics. If we had that extra layer we would be able to grasp these technologies better, form better anologies. Christ I’ve seen some smart people just look dumb and give up when discussing alien technologies. Didn’t we build a working nuke from basically scratch in 4 years. Obviously not the best invention, but goes to show if you actually invest, and actually have an idea of how something works. It goes a very long ways to building a functioning device

  44. Give Galileo an iPhone and see if he can replicate it.
    He would not be able to analyse the screen or battery or chip tech.
    He would not have the ecosystem the device needs to function (Wireless, electricity to charge, apps store etc etc).
    Technology continually increases in sophistication.

  45. Thunderfoot made a whole series on debunking ufos. I like the fact that he does all the math live and you can see that it was actually very easy to find out the real explanations

  46. You make a bigger assumption than me: you assume that completely independent civilizations not biologically related and scattered through space and time all behave in the same way: that all achieve the same level of technology with comparable timescales and that all are motivated in the same way.
    To detect alien civilizations we just need to detect some of those civilizations. Even here on earth we have nations with very different priorities in terms of environmental impact and energy consumption.
    You just need very few civilizations that do not care about hiding and actively pursue an expansionistic approach and we would be able to see them right now.

  47. The main advantage with reverse engineering and replicate unknown technology is you know something is possible, so you know it can be done in a way or another.

    The main problem is you needs the basis of the science and technology to be able to replicate it. You needs to replicate all the scientific base and technological base to be able to replicate the technology. This will, without a doubt, radically change the society.

    You get cheap/abundant/ubiquitous energy, you change the structure of a society with the need of distributing energy structure.

  48. UFO does not mean flying saucers or non-Mexican aliens.

    The developmental advanced molecular nanotechnology landscape outside of biology/chemistry are rather primitive, anyone hoping for the emergence of a cornucopia machine in the near future is likely to be disappointed.

    Faked videos and a big prank like Piltdown man seems to not be the case because hundreds of videos over decades.

    I dont think the volume of videos excludes them being faked, the population is large and people have a lot of time on their hands.

  49. Quite a few assumptions there. Sorry, but I don't buy the Dyson sphere argument. It's a cool idea but seems like way too much effort, and that is backed up by the lack of evidence for their existence. All the aliens out there obviously thought it was a massive faff too. Just as possible, as aliens leverage tech to become more intelligent, populations and "growth" in a spatial sense could contract. Not to mention the logistics of maintaining such a large society. Think about it, our intelligence is distributed across large numbers of humans with different skills and specialisations. But an upgraded individual could learn multiple skills and become much more "self-sufficient" leaving the birth culture and exploring far and wide. There could be 1,000,000 super smart, immortal aliens living low key in a hollowed out asteroid (or in a relatively small colony under the ocean) with stealth tech installed on their Alcubierre-drive spaceships. Why does a civilisation need to grow like a cancer and consume everything? Stealing all the light of a star might be considered unethical when fusion reactors and other exotic energy sources are available. We just don't know.

  50. The Pias effect? These things behave exactly like the craft described in those Navy patents. Coincidence?

  51. What about a lost ancient civilization that after a cataclysmic event went into hiding in our oceans or underground? There are many legends of hollow earth inhabitants and i think continent size cavities have been reported by scientists… and since a lot of these UAPs seem to be coming in and out of the Oceans this to me could make more sense than extraterrestrials visiting!

  52. I know that lots of people seem to think that UFO stands for Undoubtedly From Otherplanets but I think that this seems to be part of where they are going wrong.

    USN announces they have definitely observed UFOs (Unidentified Flying Objects)
    Big slab of the population hears that they have definitely encountered alien spaceships.

  53. THis is the government that was able to keep the secret of nuclear weapons for one electoral cycle only? That can't stop random hackers from stealing and publishing thousands of documents on a semi-regular basis? That has half their military plans fall over because people can't keep their mouths shut?

    They aren't keeping anything secret for long. If they let the Soviets have nukes there is nothing that is too classified to blab.

  54. I suspect those probing related stories are more of a matter of wishful thinking on some people's part.
    Or they were indulging in some purely earth based probing and want a cover story.

  55. Certainly most of the videos are not so convincing. For example the triangular lights one has been debunked ( However I do find the 2004 Nimitz personal and radar accounts quite compelling.

    We need better surveillance of our air space using our best radar. It was interesting to note that detection by the Nimitz coincided with the use of new phased array radar tech.

    I am highly skeptical of stories of wreckage available for reverse engineering and don't believe we could reverse engineer it in any case.

    It should be kept in mind that any visitors would almost certainly be synthetic. In other words, not flesh and blood aliens. You only have to imagine AI in 200 years from now and it becomes obvious that flesh and blood will be superseded sooner rather than later. The observed "tic tac" probably does not contain any beings, it is probably an intelligent entity itself.

    My final thought always with alien, future intelligence, especially given the fact it will likely be synthetic, is the question of motivation. What is the motivation that drives them given they probably have no limitations?

  56. Other governments are run by the secret council of lizard persons. That’s why there are no record.

    FYI never trust Russian farmer stories.

  57. Mat. It should have started with AT LEAST, four light years, yet the best odds would be from possibly farther. Reminds me to look for alien signals if possible, might be best to search for the most interesting celestial bodies within several light years. If focused there we might get alien signals to the same thing we are interested in. If they are close they may have sent probes with good transmitters to it for them to detect, that we might be able to pick up also.

  58. That isn’t the conversation all the armchair astrophysicists are having. For most everyone UFO means aliens.

    Unexplained phenomena? For sure. Aliens? Not seeing any kind of consistent data that points to it.

  59. Let's take another example. Native American Indians encountered European technology (sailing ships, firearms, iron and steel tools and weapons, cavalry) in the 1500s. Examples of this tech (except the ships) were fairly rapidly traded throughout both American continents.

    How long did it take to replicate this? They had multiple examples in front of them. They knew it was useful. They were able to use them. They were under increasing pressure to catch up as Europeans pushed further and further into taking over the entire land area.

    Well, they replicated cavalry, because the basis of the tech was a self-replicating system that merely required care and exploitation.

    But all the other stuff? As far as I know this was NEVER replicated. There were never any Sioux firearm manufacturers or Inca steelworks. Though if someone knows of any???

  60. Comparing this to Chinese tech catchup is interesting, but vastly underselling the problem.

    Even though US 1940s military tech was obviously secret, it was built on the foundation of standard 1940s civilian tech. And that is available literally off the shelf.

    In 1950 you could walk into a US bookstore and purchase engineering textbooks that were designed to teach undergraduates the basics of most of that technology. You could even enrol your agents in the engineering courses. You could purchase radios and cars and TVs that had technology in them that was only a couple of decades behind the latest military cutting edge.

    Catching up to another Earth culture, especially an open one that used tech in civilian life, was WAY easier that building the whole thing from a box full of scraps in a cave.

    Well, catching up to the point of only being a few decades behind anyway. That final leap from "what a commercially available product has" to "what an airforce jet has" is the stage where you need to do most of the work yourself.

  61. Oh, good: The lack of comments wasn't due to my having to replace my computer; I'd thought it was the new browser.

    I tried a couple of browsers on a couple of computers on two different ISPs. I just figured it was standard NBF comment SNAFU.

  62. UFOs ARE real.

    The question is whether they are aliens.

    THere is no question that sometimes things appear in the sky that are unidentified.

  63. It's a completely effective cloaking device against most lifeforms. Us humans are a bit more perceptive than most thanks to evolving along side lions and wolves.

  64. Yepp, 60 Minutes has debunked it as a bird but not the army and we need to expend it to all other sightings. Keep yourself in the cage if you want to, dude.

  65. Probably AI – drone. But – Anything that moves like that must have the ability to move meat – its stressing non-meat beyond physics as well.

  66. You don’t move meat. If you can…don’t even move physical tech…maybe “real” UFOs aren’t craft..,they’re cursors….the alien itself but a passing thought…a waveform


    If Gov REALLY believed that UFOs were real then the Air Force would have been spending and extra trillion $ per decade and all of it in space.

    Technologically advanced aliens zipping around are the perfect excuse to bump defense budgets to the moon and beyond. It’s literally every PPT jockey’s dream come true.

    No spending means there are no aliens.

  68. Your report on Alcubierre Drive.. Here we have infrared, video, human sight – and that rules out the typical differing – there are objects that behave contrary to our current understanding of physics, and they are so common, apparently, that one pilot testified they were taking place daily over the U.S. Atlantic coast for two years. Should we not start to look at clues that might inform our own technological growth? 1. The reports always indicate they “disappear” . 2. If the most technologically observed objects convey more authentiticity to the eye-witnessed only reports – there are a variety of UAP’s – one would not necessarily assumed from the same source. 3. That disturbance on the ocean.

    It is my believe that social order is a blindfold to introduction of disorder.

  69. Your article lays out how difficult it is for human collectives trailing other human collectives to catch up. And it ends a resolution of anxiety, and weird – of course we are going to continue on our own path. Their is no choice based on your argument – which seems true. But to say that it is more likely to human technology over alien technology is the opposite of the argument you were making.

  70. Nothing to worry about, Aliens and and their UFOs are deathly afraid of smartphone cameras.

    I mean alien reporting a are inversely proportional to phone camera market penetration.

  71. If adolescent behavior is anything to go by, I can get behind the idea of drunk redneck aliens screaming YOLO while buzzing aircraft. Highly focused idiocy might be a universal phenomenon.

  72. Sources say that this is a beginning of a disclosure, in small steps now, but the the truth about our alien life, dark space program will be revealed, ex officials testimonies are gathering already. We have been kept in the dark about reality to keep us weak in so many ways.

  73. Civilizations that can afford to routinely send manned ships on interstellar missions have enormous energy output and before reaching Earth just to practice some proctology they probably have already colonized several star systems. Such civilization will appear as dark spots expanding in the Milky Way as the civilization fully populates a system, start exploiting efficiently the star (building something similar to dyson structures) and move on.
    If alien life is so likely that one of our neighbors is close enough to notice us and come to study us, then it is also likely that other civilizations occurred in the galaxy, some probably emerging thousands of years before our neighbors.
    The final result would be a Milky Way halo full of roughly spherical darker spots of different sizes clearly visible by naked eye. It is worth mentioning that maybe some of those mythical alien civilization might develop physics-breaking technology capable of providing infinite energy without having heat dissipation issues, but that is not necessarily true for all this supposedly ubiquitous alien civilizations: some of these civilizations should be big enough to be noticed, and above all not all might care if they get noticed. If they exist we should see them.

  74. Imagine how much more funding we'd put into basic science R&D if anyone actually believed this type of alien technology was possible.

  75. I want to know the UFO technology that makes photos of them look grainy & out of focus.

  76. Just probes sent by a paperclip maximizer created on other star system, checking on how to transform all baryonic matter in our system (including us) into paperclips

  77. This seems difficult to see how technology for 600G acceleration and zero to 13000 mph movement could have been secretly developed. However, this kind of scenario seems more possible than real aliens.  

    How do you arrive at that? It seems dramatically less plausible than aliens.

  78. Oh, good: The lack of comments wasn't due to my having to replace my computer; I'd thought it was the new browser.

    Anyway, if the government genuinely thinks UFOs are real, and the sightings are as frequent as asserted, they'd spam the areas where they were taking place with an absolute overkill of sensors, from ground based, aerial, and orbital. There'd be very little question about what was going on.

    I think this may be of a piece with those totally absurd patents the government has been filing the last few years. Some massive psyop.

    But, who knows. Perhaps we really are being visited by aliens, and the government has decided to ease us into it.

  79. Sorry, to clarify the 20% of ALL sightings are both well documented and unknown. Let's see what the US Govt 3-letter agencies release to Congress on June 1st. Hard to believe the government will come clean about their knowledge of the UFO/UAP data.

  80. Who is going to reveal anything when the government confiscates and classifies everything? Lazar said some of the finds came from archeological digs. They are here and have been for thousands of years. What the government knows and has developed will remain a secret for a long time.

  81. Military have better equipment and better training. It would make sense they'd have fewer false positives (that can be explained away). Also, 20% of "well documented" vs 5% of all of them.

    But it doesn't matter if it's 5 or 20. There are still many unexplained sightings either way. And that still doesn't mean any of them are aliens.

  82. I do believe UFOs or UAPs exist. By personal accounts of my utmost confidence.

    If they are legit extraterrestrials is another thing.

    Living beings from another planet, I mean. If they were, their presence would be more physically measurable. Civilizations, unless very abstemious or primitive, would tend to be noisy and leaving a lot more litter and artifacts behind besides of EM traces.

    Even if they came long ago, we would be finding traces of their presence in places we couldn't explain away. Mysterious satellites, ruins on the Moon, Mars, etc.

    The fact they aren't so ostensible, means they are either: 1) trying to hide much more carefully than reasonable, while also showing off themselves. 2) they aren't what we believe, probably not even from this universe and just taking a peek and returning home.

    The variety, statistic distribution, overall weirdness of them and the fact they seem to come out of the blue and disappear likewise, makes me believe that most UAPs and aliens are really not from here, and that even if we go to space one day, we won't find anyone there. Yet UAPs will go wherever we go, because it's a transient phenomenon focused on us. We are the attraction these beings are coming to take a look at.

    Yes, we would be the animals in a multiverse safari and them tourists.

  83. No, The US Ar Force Project Blue Book stated that 20% of the well documented sightings could not be explained. (The 5% is a media perpetuated myth).

  84. meh. doubt on bio-based visits. possibly ex-cis-lunar probes and ex-solar distant monitoring and undetectable/degradable infiltration in the wind. A bit absurd to believe that any civilizations would want to 'get to know us and get in touch'. At best they would just do a multi-week survey and put a warning sign outside the Kuiper to indicate 'semi-toxic pre-space civilization – peaceful exchange unlikely'

  85. Exactly, Singularity, AGI, ASI is possible even in next 2 decades. After that we will have technology at least billions of times more advanced than now. Those silly, big flying drones will be cavemen like tech as soon as late 2020's.

    We will be probing alien civilizations which are on our current level of development or less advanced (assuming they exist and we will find them) using invisible nano or femtoprobes, possibly doing it even without leaving our planet

    And as always, all recordings are blurry, quality of all of them is a joke

  86. The claims that UFOs are of alien origin is absurd. Civilizations capable of interstellar travel will be detectable by naked eye in the sky, In a world where more and more nations develop high tech aircrafts and stealth tech, UFOs encounters are unavoidable. Then there are the hoaxes and who, even in good faith, claim that aliens are the most rational explanation.
    They are not.
    Last year, the footage from three UFOs encounter was released from a reputable source and all the TVs and networks claimed that it was proof of aliens. There are interviews with experts making claims about antigravity and so on…
    It turned out that running the numbers they were easily explained phenomena (including pilots not understanding that their infrared tracking system was so precise it could track birds).
    Thunderfoot made a very good series of videos running the numbers and doing the math live to show how basic the stuff was. And these were supposedly the best evidence of aliens!

    The series is "Pentagon officially released 'UFO' videos: BUSTED (Part 1 )" 2 and 3

    You can find the first video here

  87. Real aliens wouldn't need flying saucers. If they want to observe us they would use nano probes that would highjack insects, animals and humans. You reading this could have a biological nanoprobe integrated into your brain, funneling what you see, feel and think to them. A few hundred years in technology is a lot. This is why there is no one out there. A technological civilization has a very short life. Our future is either extinction or godhood.

  88. I remember reading that something like 5% of UFO reports can't be explained by experts. The other 95% can be explained without resorting to "aliens", but that still leaves hundreds of reports that we simply don't know what they are. But probably for the majority of those, there's just not enough data. Just blurry moving light dots, in many cases.

    The military recordings are more detailed, with more supporting data. But we still don't know what they are. If the military, or government, or NASA wanted to, they could deploy much better cameras (high resolution, multi-spectral, maybe higher frame rate) with military-grade radar-assisted motion tracking. Wide-angle for tracking, telescopic for the detail shots. Add spectrometers, magnetometers, accelerometers (for measuring anomolous gravity), and every other sensor that may be useful. Deploy a few of these to where sightings are most common, to get triangulation. Get the detailed scientific data. Then we can start seriously considering what these phenomena are. Probably much cheaper and much quicker than a bunch of SGL missions (but not mutually-exclusive).

    My personal take: IF true, the sightings and abduction stories fit the Zoo hypothesis. If you were observing a species, you'd mostly stay out of the way, but you'd take samples. The primary interest might be archeological: the same way we'd be interested in cavemen and dinosaurs if we could go back to study them live.

  89. Ben Rich, head of Lockheed Skunk Works, "“We now have the technology to take ET home. No, it won’t take someone’s
    lifetime to do it. There is an error in the equations. We know what it
    is. We now have the capability to travel to the stars. First, you have
    to understand that we will not get to the stars using chemical
    propulsion. Second, we have to devise a new propulsion technology. What
    we have to do is find out where Einstein went wrong.”

  90. "The standard of proof for aliens needs to be high." Really? I thought Carl Sagan was dead. 20% of the sightings in Project Blue Book were highly documented unknowns with extraordinary details. Philip Courso has witnessed alien crash retrievals. The US Government has alien craft & bodies that they keep hidden. What other evidence would Carl Sagan need?

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