We already know that about 36% of people who get fully vaccinated by the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine will get COVID and have symptoms and 7% will still get serious illness. The 93% prevention of serious illness is great.
A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 64% effective at preventing symptomatic Covid-19, according to an early study by Israel’s health ministry reported in July. This much lower than previous estimates of nearly 90%. AstraZeneca vaccine to be about 60% effective at preventing symptomatic disease and around 90% effective at preventing hospitalization.
The vaccine still appears to be highly effective, 93%, at preventing serious illness and hospitalization, the data shows, though this is also slightly lower than earlier studies suggested and for other variants.
* there are significant numbers of people who get side effects from the vaccines
* the CDC is reporting over 6000 deaths linked to the COVID vaccines. These are being investigated. These are not breakthrough deaths (aka deaths caused in spite of the vaccine but possible deaths caused by the vaccines.)
* vaccines side effects are under reported
* there are also breakthrough deaths and hospitalizations
* the US has had over 200,000 deaths from COVID since the start of the CCOVID vaccinations
The FDA does have the disclaimer about vaccine side effects.
The most commonly reported side effects, which typically lasted several days, were pain at the injection site, tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, joint pain, and fever. Of note, more people experienced these side effects after the second dose than after the first dose, so it is important for vaccination providers and recipients to expect that there may be some side effects after either dose, but even more so after the second dose.
Joe Rogan and Jimmy Dore discussed the long term neck pain and body aches and inflammation that Jimmy Dore experienced as vaccination side effects. Jimmy also found that his personal doctor was treating five other people with vaccination side effects. Those people were medical professionals. Those medical professionals were afraid to discuss their side effects for fear of getting ostrasized.
Jimmy Dore is currently being treated with Ivermectin and other anti-inflammatories for his side effects.
CDC Stats on Deaths and Illness Related to Vaccines
Here is the CDC list of Adverse Events in the US related to the COVID Vaccines. Nextbigfuture believes that based on anedotal evidence of under-reporting of vaccination side effects, and the obvious stigma, the CDC data on side effects is likely lower than the real level of COVID vaccine side effects.
Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. More than 339 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through July 19, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. A review of available clinical information, including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records, has not established a causal link to COVID-19 vaccines. However, recent reports indicate a plausible causal relationship between the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine and TTS, a rare and serious adverse event—blood clots with low platelets—which has caused deaths.
Anaphylaxis after COVID-19 vaccination is rare and has occurred in approximately 2 to 5 people per million vaccinated in the United States. Severe allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, can occur after any vaccination. If this occurs, vaccination providers can effectively and immediately treat the reaction. Learn more about COVID-19 vaccines and allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis.
Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) after Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen (J&J/Janssen) COVID-19 vaccination is rare. As of July 19, 2021, more than 13 million doses of the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine have been given in the United States. CDC and FDA identified 39 confirmed reports of people who got the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine and later developed TTS. Women younger than 50 years old especially should be aware of the rare but increased risk of this adverse event. There are other COVID-19 vaccine options available for which this risk has not been seen. Learn more about J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine and TTS.
To date, two confirmed cases of TTS following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Moderna) have been reported to VAERS after more than 324 million doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered in the United States. Based on available data, there is not an increased risk for TTS after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.
CDC and FDA are monitoring reports of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) in people who have received the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine. GBS is a rare disorder where the body’s immune system damages nerve cells, causing muscle weakness and sometimes paralysis. Most people fully recover from GBS, but some have permanent nerve damage. After 12.8 million J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine doses administered, there have been around 100 preliminary reports of GBS identified in VAERS as of July 12. These cases have largely been reported about 2 weeks after vaccination and mostly in men, many 50 years and older. CDC will continue to monitor for and evaluate reports of GBS occurring after COVID-19 vaccination and will share more information as it becomes available.
Myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. As of July 19, 2021, VAERS has received 1,148 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis among people ages 30 and younger who received COVID-19 vaccine. Most cases have been reported after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna), particularly in male adolescents and young adults. Through follow-up, including medical record reviews, CDC and FDA have confirmed 674 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis. CDC and its partners are investigating these reports to assess whether there is a relationship to COVID-19 vaccination. Learn more about COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis.
SOURCES- Bloomberg, FDA, Joe Rogan Show, Ynet, CDC
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
52 thoughts on “COVID Vaccines Mostly Work But Flaws Need to be Discussed”
IT would be nice of Brian to keep a common table block showing these relative stats, with links, for each of the major vaccines, including Sinovac and Sputnik. And the recent combo mix-and-match results. and the recent reporting on reduced antibodies at the 6 month mark. It would be nice to see if mRNA is somewhat flawed in that aspect, requiring booster regimes.
I think we're talking past each other. By "not impressive", I meant, "not impressively better".
In rereading my above comment, I see I was unclear in places. I consider the 1-2 day fever and multi-day ache a robust and good response to the vaccine. I don't consider the sniffles, diarrhea, cough, loss of smell and such an "immune response", but rather the insult of the virus…and no reason to think those symptoms result in conferring any additional protection…more likely weakening people, increasing susceptibility to other things.
My only real point of contention in your initial comment was "not really impressive compared to natural immunity". And your link does not back you up. It basically says they are pretty much the same. I see no evidence that catching Covid is more effective at preventing a subsequent infection than getting vaccinated.
My sister believes she was infected at least twice. She is a truck driver and drives all over the US and Canada. New variant…new infection.
Though, previous infection, or vaccination, almost certainly will greatly decrease the likelihood that one would get seriously ill or dead, from a new variant, without other major declines in health in the interim.
Yeah, I had chickenpox as a kid. I'm from the last generation before the vaccine became a thing. I just got unlucky.
A couple years before my bout with shingles I had moved to a northern climate with short days. Maybe the lack of vitamin D depressed my immune system. Probably the locals all take supplements or go skiing a lot, but I wasn't well adapted to the region.
The primary reason is that the adverse reactions are immune reactions, and if you have established immunity already, your immune system responds rather aggressively to the vaccine.
I expect that the reason I had a mild case of covid is that, aside from being a bit overweight, I'm in excellent health for somebody in their 60's. Not much in the way of co-morbidities or nutritional deficits.
I currently plan on getting the next rev of the vaccine, the one that handles Delta, too. That will have benefits to exceed the risks. I'd been planning on getting the first version, when Covid caught me before it became available for my cohort.
Corona has developed 4 major variants in 8 months, and two of those are unaffected by the current vaccines. All you need do is consider the world’s current population, and do some simple arithmetic. It then becomes very clear that the vaccine programs are unsustainable. They are clearly not the answer. The problem is far more dire than most the public realizes. Basically, it is impossible for even the Pharm Giants to keep up with the emerging variants when you consider the shear volume of vaccinating the entire world's population once or twice a year. This also tells us there is something about Covid they have not been exactly being forthcoming with. Regardless, my sources among researchers and geneticists report that the world’s scientists are beginning to realize vaccines are nearly a fool’s errand at this point. And they know they must focus at break-neck speed on drug therapies instead. The good news is that many universal antivirals are almost available, and a number of labs are developing super antibodies thousands of times stronger than anything before. These antibody therapies are capable of overcoming all forms of Covid, and they might free us from many other virus threats as well.
Keep yourself safe, but take heart. Real solutions are just around the corner…
Sure "political". However, I suspect people who caught it and never had any symptoms, might not have the most prepared immune system when exposed to another variant. The same might actually be true if you had a very weak reaction to the vaccine.
A temperature and a few aches is not the same as that plus a runny nose, cough, congestion, queziness and the other usual cold symptoms. And, of course, maybe not getting such a low level infection, and there is the risk of spreading it to your loved ones, even possibly killing someone. So, no, they are not the same.
I think if you had it, you still want at least 1 shot. If you have no reaction to the first shot then 2.
"The odds go up if you've already had Covid." There are reasons this could be true, that have little to do with previous infection making them more vulnerable to a strong reaction. It could simply be that they were more vulnerable before they even caught Covid. Perhaps the amount of virus sufficient to cause them the disease was much smaller than sufficient for the average person, or the really healthy people…so you already have a selection bias.
That is not the only source of bias. Consider that probably only 1/2-1/3 of people who caught it bothered to take a test. And the less severe the infection, the less likely on average they would go and take the test. So the people you have evidence of previously being infected are already those who tend to have the more intense response.
Yes, some people have decided not to get their second shot, maybe due to side effects. I don't really know.
People have this quaint idea that vaccines are 100% effective. They have never been 100% effective and they don't need to be. All they have to be is effective enough to curb transmission of the virus but this requires that a vast majority of people get vaccinated. The MRNA vaccines have been the most effective vaccines ever tested.
Something a bit odd…
About 343M doses have been given in US.
About 163M are fully vaxed.
About 188M have at had least one dose.
That works out to about 154M fully vaxed with a dual dose vaccine, 9M fully vaxed with a single dose vaccine, and 25M who've had a single dose of the dual dose vaccine.
But over the past 2 weeks, only around 4M to 8M have gotten vaxed.
That seems to imply that a bunch of people got the first of two doses and stopped?
*Providing you don't fail other requirements such as appropriate social media score.
Well, actually, lots of people are.
This is not peer reviewed yet I believe…
"That leaves whiny people who don't like the 2-day fever and muscle aches,"
I had Covid back in February. It was a 2-day fever and muscle aches. The worst part of it was being quarantined for a couple weeks afterwards. So you're describing a vaccine reaction that's comparable to the symptoms of actually getting the disease for many people.
I've looked at the numbers. The odds of a severe vaccine reaction are pretty low for people who haven't previously been exposed to Covid. The odds go up if you've already had Covid.
And, the key point: The odds of having a severe SECOND case of Covid after having gotten over it are pretty close to negligible, too.
Like I said: If you haven't had Covid, the numbers absolutely favor getting vaccinated, unless you have some special contraindication.
If you have had Covid? The case for getting vaccinated is very weak indeed. It's actually about the same as the case for getting vaccinated after you've been vaccinated.
And who's proposing people do that? Nobody, because that would be stupidly redundant. Well, being vaccinated after having had Covid is also stupidly redundant. But promoted for purely political reasons.
The artificial HGH they make has issues. They thought it was a wonder drug for a while.
I think pregnenolone is better than DHEA. It is the beginning of the hormone cascade or whatever they call it, making a more balanced ratio of various hormones.
I think the best for the immune system regeneration is regular sleep, hyperberic chambers, carotenoids, EPA oil, regular exercise, and Cycloastragenol.
And I would not be surprised if NR and reducing AGEs (advanced glycation end products) also helped.
Yeah, I've been following that.
You got shingles in your 20's? That's pretty unusual, it's usually an old person's disease that you get decades after having had chickenpox as a child. I had chickenpox in the 60's, before the vaccine was widely available.
Though I suppose you can get shingles after having had the live vaccine, rather than the illness. It's just unusual.
Are you talking about breakthrough cases, or are you talking about people with extreme vaccine side effects?
I suspect there is little overlap either way.
Maybe the genetic mutation thing that compromises interferon type I could similarly make a muted response to the vaccination in some of the breakthrough cases. In the vaccine side effect category, perhaps those with extreme immune reactions to Covid, also would have had a strong immune response to the vaccine.
Of course, I am merely speculating.
I was not contesting the wording. You were making multiple arguments.
"Up substantially" from nothing is still very near nothing. You are equating the trivial to the serious. There are negligible "severe" reactions. Most are psychosomatic panic attacks because of all the fearmongering. The teen heart business is just part of a normal immune response and accompanies any of dozens of infections. And, importantly, is temporary. The one vaccine causing clots we just need to avoid giving to women on the pill. And it is just as likely as not, that the clotting is just a side effect from the birth control pills, and has nothing to do with the shot. We already know this clot reaction to the pill is a thing.
Anaphylactic shock? Sure, maybe 1/100,000 people in the US. The vast majority of these people know they are vulnerable to this, and have had that reaction to several things already.
That leaves whiny people who don't like the 2-day fever and muscle aches, and soreness in their arm for 5-days, and make a big stink, and there are goofballs taking the wrong things or too much of something to supposedly fight the symptoms. Like taking horse doses of ivermectin every day or more. Idiots being their own doctor.
I am not saying it is impossible that it could kill out of the blue, but I suspect you have to be incredibly frail for that to happen. Usually when you are that frail, you don't mount much of an immune response, and the real risk is that the vaccine simply will not work, but people can be frail and still have a good immune system.
So what we need is to know how many are statistically 'excess deaths' like they do for covid, then.
I'm sorry, that's really terrible. The elderly are vulnerable in so many ways. It's amazing our society doesn't take the longevity stuff more seriously when we all care about our parents.
I've heard the DHEA+Metformin+HGH combo really does cause some thymus regeneration, hopefully that will help the rest of our immune systems a bit.
Speaking as someone who got shingles in his 20's, you made the right choice. And now that I'm in my 30's and the immunity is waning again, it's about time I schedule a top up and accept my goose egg.
The dumb thing is, I was already planning on getting the vaccine back then. But I didn't take it seriously – what are the odds you'll get it in any given year, right? So whatever, when I get around to it… ugh. Reality is the best teacher.
Sure, and likewise for the vaccine.
If you're immunologically naïve, the vaccine is far superior to getting the disease, unless maybe you're a teen.
If you've already had Covid, the considerations change, as your odds of getting a severe Covid infection drop to near zero, and your odds of getting a severe reaction to the vaccine go up substantially.
I would absolutely urge the vaccine for anybody who hasn't had Covid yet, it is by far the preferable way to get immunity, unless, as I say, you're quite young.
None of which changes the fact that the quoted passage is badly written, and might mislead people about the odds of getting Covid if vaccinated, which are quite low even with the Pfizer vaccine.
Shingles basically killed my Mom; Seems if you have taken a steroid just prior to an attack, it's much worse. Her whole back was a shingles lesion.
I suppose it didn't directly kill her, so much as the pain just wiped out her will to live.
If someone gets hit by a bus and is on a COVID-19 vax study, that death will be reported as a Serious Adverse Event (or Reportable New Information). All deaths are reported – it seems silly, but in one case an experimental drug was actually causing tunnel vision and slight vertigo and people really were walking into traffic more frequently than normal due to that drug's side effect – which is why all deaths are always reported to the FDA when still under investigation.
It is likely that of the 6000(ish) deaths only a very small fraction (<1%) will end up being directly attributable to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines or the J&J vaccine. Speak to a human subjects researcher for the lowdown on this stuff – without context 6000 sort of seems significant. It's really not in a cohort of tens of millions…
When you add up the dead, from Covid, that takes a couple percentage points away from the effectiveness of infection as the cure.
I got the second Pfizer shot already, got sick, aching arm and body and tiredness for a couple of days every time (I already got Covid19 in the last year).
Still worth it. I prefer to feel sick for a few days instead of having more chances of spreading the bug and the low but very real risk of getting seriously ill.
I'd take a reinforcement shot every year if need be.
We won't get out of this until we build herd immunity, naturally or artificially. But artificially is far less deadly, despite the small risk of adverse reactions.
They are an attribution for all the nutters, I seem to meet.
I suspect these strong reactions are mostly in people who caught the bug. They already had an immune reaction. For people who caught the bug, I think one shot should be sufficient. Of course, I am not a doctor.
They should probably be testing everyone they inject to see if they have had Covid already. That is useful information. We can make better estimates about how many people are out there who did not get it and haven't had a shot, as well as learn if 2 shots are necessary for those who have had Covid.
Shingles is really awful. My Mom had that, and was miserable.
I plan to get that vaccine. I definitely don't want shingles…goose egg or not.
Delta wave mortality in UK is significantly lower than previous waves and new cases have crested after 2 months. Mortality is probably lower because most everyone who is at risk is vaccinated and we are seeing what covid looks like when it afflicts a generally younger, healthier population.
The shingles vaccine gave me a goose egg that was literally the size of a goose egg. Damn, that hurt. But I figured it was worth it to avoid shingles.
"The overall rate of vaccination looks bad because practically nobody below the age of 18 has been vaccinated"
Nor should they as they are at less risk of dying from covid than from seasonal flu.
"The fact is, this pandemic has about burned out, and people who've used it as an excuse for a power grab don't want to admit it."
Need to get everyone masked up to scare people in to the next round of stimulus money.
The degree of willful denial that natural immunity is actually a thing has astounded me. I get the impression the politicalization of medicine hit some kind of critical mass with Covid, and everybody is afraid to come out with any findings that contradict what the government wants to do.
The vaccination rate for the elderly is, understandably, much higher than for the general population. It's over 4/5 of the 65+ population here in SC, and that's for both shots. It's 93% for a single shot. I expect most of the people that old who haven't gotten the shot are avoiding it due to compromised immune systems…
The overall rate of vaccination looks bad because practically nobody below the age of 18 has been vaccinated. But, in as much as Covid is a big nothing if you're that young, that's rational. The vaccination rates in the age ranges where people have to worry about covid is quite high. By the time those youngsters have aged into the higher risk categories, they'll already be naturally immune.
The fact is, this pandemic has about burned out, and people who've used it as an excuse for a power grab don't want to admit it.
What I find to be most telling is that no "reputable" sources add the percentages of contracted and recovered to fully vaccinated.
% for "really not going to re-catch this virus" is 11% higher than vaccination % alone.
News media all around does nothing but push fear narratives. People think that Covid is super lethal or vaccines are super bad. News media does not actually inform, CDC does not actually inform, etc.
There's a lot of irrationality all around. That's for sure.
What I am hoping is that the unvaccinated elderly are almost completely people who already got the disease. But somehow, I suspect that there are many both scared of the disease who took considerable steps to avoid it, and scared of needles.
Vaccination guarantees citizenship!
Friend of mine had debilitating arm pain for three weeks after her second shot. Weeks of physical therapy coupled with counting down the hours until she could take her next round of pain meds. She's better now but life was hell for weeks.
Yes there can be side effects. No that doesn't mean people should skip the vaccine. Talk to your doctor, look at your risk factors, etc.
That's the asterix on the VAERS data- its raw data. None of these deaths are properly attributed to the vaccines, just temporally coincident with them which is not attribution.
Side effects? That is the point of the vaccination…to produce an immune response for a day or two.
I'd be much more worried if I did not have a noticeable response.
Amazing how readily antivaxers/antimaskers embraced the idea that people could be infected yet die of something else, yet when it comes to death after vaccination, all these deaths are "because they were vaccinated". Do a little math. Old people die of other things. Yes, even 3 days after a vaccination.
Lets say people live 78.8 years and they have an equal chance of dying each day (in reality, it would be much higher when older). That is 28,762 days. So if we are looking at deaths on the day they got the shot and the next 3. Then we are looking at 4/28,762 deaths x the number vaccinated, purely by other things. 189m have at least one dose. So 189m x 4/28,762 = 26,284 deaths would be expected very soon after the first shot. And you can add another 10,000+ for including the days after the second shot. And then of course your chances of vaccination are much higher when older, and the likelihood of dying of the usual suspects of heart disease, cancer, emphysema, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and company is obviously weighted toward the elderly.
Chances that any of these deaths will be misattributed to the vaccine they got a few days prior? I'd say that is a huge probability.
Yeah, what we're going to see is that states with relatively low vaccination rates will end up with high rates of natural immunity, which is a bit more unpleasant to come by, but gets the job done. Meanwhile, hospitalization rates are not actually that high. My own state of SC currently has a bit under 600 hospitalized with Covid, which is not to say hospitalized due to Covid, just that they're in the hospital and test positive.
You'd prefer that to be zero, of course, but that's only 5% of occupied beds being people with Covid, which means it isn't remotely the primary cause of hospitalization in this state.
"We already know that about 36% of people who get fully vaccinated by the
Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine will get COVID and have symptoms and 7%
will still get serious illness."
I think this is not quite clearly worded, as the mRNA vaccine would have to be actively causing people to contract Covid in order for 36% of the fully vaccinated to come down with it. That's a higher percentage than the un-vaccinated population!
I think what you mean is that, of the fully vaccinated who none the less contract Covid, 36% will have symptomatic cases, and 7% serious cases. The remaining 57% of the fully vaccinated who none the less contract Covid would have only asymptomatic cases. But these figures do not tell us how much vaccination reduces your odds of infection if you are exposed, which is what we really want to know.
The numbers I've seen say the Pfizer vaccine is about 95% effective, which is to say, it reduces your chances of being infected by a factor of about 20 fold relative to the immunologically naive, given similar exposure.
That's OK performance, I guess, but not really impressive compared to natural immunity.
Anecdotal or unscientific "evidence"??
It would be great to examine the comorbidities of vaccinated people who develop serious covid cases. Is it the standard list of suspects? Obesity, high blood pressure, compromised immune system and age?
Swambo. What we are going to see … loser States full of loser conspiracy theorists and low vaccination rates get ravaged by new variants of covid-19. States with high vaccination rates will still have a lot of cases but with much lower levels of hospitalization.
Dr John Campbell suggests that lack of protection from Pfizer in US compared to UK is due to a substantially shorter time between 1st and 2nd shots. See from 8 mins in this video.
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