Tesla Will Have Revenue Than GM in 2022

GM old about 447,000 vehicles from July through September, down 32.8% from a year earlier when sales volumes were depressed due to the coronavirus pandemic. This likely means that GM made $23 billion in quarterly revenue instead of $34 billion.

The chip shortage has caused GM to shutter plants for weeks, if not months, and also partially produce vehicles that are in high demand such as its full-size pickup trucks to then finish when chips become available.

Tesla sold 241,000 cars in the third quarter and made about $14 billion in revenue in the third quarter. Tesla is on track to about 900,000 to 950,000 cars for 2021 and the fourth quarter should be another huge one with China ramping and two new factories starting.

Tesla will open the two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Tesla Shanghai factory is ramping towards 1 million cars per year in 2022.

The chip shortage has hit legacy automakers hard. GM down almost 33%, Ford down a similar amount, Toyota, Volkswagen are all producing fewer cars. The chip shortage is expected to last through 2022 and possibly into 2024.

GM had $120 billion in revenue in 2020 which was down from $137 billion in 2019. They had recovered to $65 billion for the first half of 2021 but are getting hit hard in Q3 and Q4. GM could have another year with about $115billion to $120 billion in annual revenue in 2021. This could repeat in 2022.

Tesla with 300,000 cars in Q4 2021 would have about $20 billion in quarterly revenue.

Tesla quarterly production and revenue for 2022 should be

Q1 2022 370,000 cars and $27 billion in quarterly revenue
Q2 2022 410,000 cars and $31 billion in quarterly revenue
Q3 2022 500,000 cars and $37 billion in quarterly revenue
Q4 2022 560,000 cars and $40 billion in quarterly revenue

GM is not growing and would do well to return to $130 billion in annual revenue and $35 billion per quarter.

Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

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